Paul Fitz

Hefty majority for considering nuclear power. If, as looks likely, the technology advances and modular reactors small enough to be trucked into place - to be used in factories and data centres etc - energy/climate worries would be a thing of the past.

As a lifelong centrist, I fully support the European model of redistribution. But something is wrong in Ireland. The welfare state should expand in recessionary times and shrink in boom times. As the chart below shows, over the decades this has worked in reverse in Ireland. Social expenditure, which includes welfare benefits and services provided for free by the state, more than doubled during the Celtic tiger. Then, during the post 2008 crash, when Ireland suffered one of the sharpest economic contractions ever recorded in a developed economy, social spending flatlined. From the middle of the last decade, when strong economic growth returned, the spend rose by 70%. When the money is available, it is spent. I'm fed up with this unthinking use of my taxes. It's time for lower personal taxation and spending restraint.

Ireland is one of the few countries anywhere in which real house prices are lower than 19 years ago. Also true of the UK (just). Prices across the OECD, when adjusted for general consumer price inflation, are up 25% over two decades.

The Energy Mix of the World’s 10 Largest Economies.

Every finance person needs to watch this

Political scientists evaluated manifestos from the 2024 general election. Every party/grouping bar one is found to be on the left. Aontu, which is economically leftist, is judged to be marginally on the right.

A guy filming the incoming tsunami on Kamchatka with his mobile phone while on a walk with his dog.

Despite this, Ireland is one of the few European countries with no gas storage capacity and it will likely be years before any is installed. Staggering that such vulnerability even exists. thetimes.com/world/ireland-…

Looks like The Boss got under the orange man’s skin. 🤪

10/10

Oil at 20-year lows in real terms, yet people call for $30–50 glut bear scenarios. Downside: maybe -5–10%. Upside: 2–3× to the upper range? That’s asymmetric risk/reward — and I like that trade.

How rich is Ireland? Not as easy to answer as some assume owing to messy GDP numbers. This is about the best measure. It looks at average disposable incomes per person, adjusting from inflation and national price levels. By this measure Ireland has not quite caught up with its neighbours in North West Europe, and incomes are still the lowest of that grouping.

There's a very common misperception that welfare spending is mostly about jobless benefits. In fact, they account for a tiny fraction - just 4% across the EU in 2023. Transfers to the elderly, sick and disabled are around 20 times higher than dole spend.

During Liquidations, all asset correlations go to 1.0 During a global margin call, investors don’t sell what they want to sell, they sell what they have to sell Always remember that leverage can never make a bad investment good, but it can, sometimes, make a good investment bad

Data center demand for electricity is predicted to double by 2030. Read more on this and other topics in the Chartbook.

Everybody wants to buy the dip in tech after a 2% drop, meanwhile a lot of real economy deep value stocks with strong dividends are down 50-75% in the past 1-3 years. Will some dividends get cut? Maybe. But the businesses will recover. Buy the real economy. Sell the ponzi.

I fear that the decline of reading will have disastrous societal consequences.

RT @danobrien20: You Budget week reminder: Ireland (IE) has the most redistributive tax and benefit set-up in Europe by a distance. https:/…

Oil is the cheapest it has been in the last 70 years when denominated in gold, with the exception of the Covid lockdown in 2020

📢 An Important Open Letter to All Californians — Especially Santa Barbara Residents The reason I became involved with Sable Offshore $SOC is simple: the data shows it’s a true win-win for California — especially our environment. When Sable restarts operations, it will obviously benefit the company and its shareholders. But more importantly, it will benefit all Californians. Here’s why: ⸻ 💡 The Economic Case •Massive Resource: Sable owns offshore platforms, a modern pipeline, a processing facility, and rights to 76,000 acres in federal waters off Santa Barbara — the second-largest oil find in the U.S. outside the Permian Basin. •Energy Security: Production costs are among the lowest in the world. Sable could supply 5% to as much as 20% of California’s daily oil needs. •Lower Gas Prices: Californians currently pay 40% more than the national average for gasoline. Restarting local supply helps reduce costs. •Jobs & Tax Revenue: Restarting production means hundreds of good-paying jobs in Santa Barbara County and millions in state and local tax revenue for schools, safety, and services. •Cleaner Fuel: Sable’s oil is cleaner-burning than much of the heavy crude we import. Producing locally also reduces pollution from foreign supertankers idling off our coast. •Future Demand: Despite renewable growth, energy demand is set to double in coming years, largely due to data centers and AI. No single solution will cover this need, but Sable will be a key part. ⸻ 🌊 The Environmental Case Santa Barbara is home to one of the largest natural oil seeps in the world. Every day, over 100 barrels of oil seep uncontrolled through the ocean floor — creating tar on our beaches, sheens on the water, and constant stress on marine life. To put this in perspective: •The 2015 Refugio spill released 3,500 barrels — of which 500 reached the ocean. •Every 4–5 days, natural seepage equals that same ocean impact. 🔬 UCSB and State Lands Commission studies (Quigley, Luyendyk, Hornafius, Peltonen, and others) have shown that when oil production is active, reservoir pressure is reduced and natural seepage declines by up to 50%. That means: •Cleaner beaches (less tar and oil) •Cleaner ocean surface (fewer sheens) •Healthier marine life with reduced chronic stress In short, safe, modern oil production in Santa Barbara actually improves our environment by reducing uncontrolled seepage. ⸻ ✅ Where We Stand Now •The pipeline has been fully inspected, upgraded with state-of-the-art safety systems (new control centers, valves, sensors), and cleared as safe to restart. •All paperwork is complete. The final decision rests with Daniel Berlant (Cal Fire / State Fire Marshal) and ultimately Governor Gavin Newsom. •We are truly inches from the finish line. ⸻ 📣 How You Can Help If you believe in cleaner beaches, lower gas prices, local jobs, and reduced dependence on foreign oil, now is the time to act. A short email, tweet, or phone call can make the difference. Let our leaders know that restarting Sable is the right thing for California. •Daniel Berlant 📧 CALFIRE.StateFireMarshal@fire.ca.gov 📞 916-653-7772 •Governor Gavin Newsom 🐦 @GavinNewsom | @CAgovernor 📞 916-445-2841 ⸻ 🚀 Sable Offshore is not just about oil. It’s about energy security, lower costs, jobs, cleaner beaches, and a healthier California. This is truly a WIN-WIN for everyone. $SOC