Philip Beard

@BGrapefrui98930 @_Checkmatey_ @SamuelPMacD Max pain 😂

@_Checkmatey_ @SamuelPMacD If $60k was truly the bottom, spare a thought for the good old $58k gang who would have missed their meme by a bee’s dick. 🫣

Bear first line of defense was 78k, in line with the STH cost basis, and True Market Mean. Their second line of defense is the 200DMA at 83k, which I'd extend to 85k given the large supply cluster in that zone. Lose that, and the Bears Last Stand is 95k at the 50WMA... ...by the time you get to the Bear Last Stand...you just have to ask yourself...how did we end up here?

@Jason @grok @saylor @saylor bought $0 this week and #BTC price is $3,000 higher than when you asked this question 🤷‍♂️

.@grok what would the price of $btc be if @saylor had not bought $61b+ / 34k+ bitcoin?

@niccruzpatane I LOVE my Model Y, but as with all Teslas the range is completely misleading. Charging time is only quick from 5% to 55%. On long trips, my 300 mile max Tesla maps me to stop every 1 1/2 - 2 hrs to charge for 10-15 minutes. Truckers might get 4 hrs tops with 500 range.

This is the sound of the all-electric Tesla Semi. Deliveries of the new Production Version begin this year: • Long Range model has 500 miles of range with a full payload. • 1.7 kWh per mile efficiency (average diesel semis are roughly 5–7 kWh per mile equivalent energy use). • Tri-motor powertrain with 800 kW of power (~1,073 hp), 3x the power of the average diesel semi. • The battery in the Semi is designed to last 1M miles. • Standard Range model (325 mi) has a similar turning radius as a Tesla Model 3/Y. • 0.4 drag coefficient. • Independent truckers are able to buy a Semi for use, not just fleet owners. • Semi fleet uptime is at 95% due to extremely low maintenance and reliability. • Integrated safety features in the Semi protect not just the driver but others on the road as well. • Future wireless charging. • Semi uses the same 4680 battery cells found in the Cybertruck. • Semi can power a whole refrigeration trailer or any powered unit. The technology is shared with Cybertruck Powershare.

@AdamBLiv I own both MSTR and STRC, but is it possible for this flywheel to work TOO well? He has said he will never sell bitcoin but I am concerned about the dividend payments getting to an unmanageable level Necessitating either excessive MSTR issuance or sale of bitcoin. Thoughts?

For those of you who don't fully grasp the MAGNITUDE of what is happening with STRC and Bitcoin right now... let me spell it out for you. Strategy has likely already acquired ~4,000 Bitcoin or so in the first half hour of trading today, assuming last week's capture rate above $100. Let's take that as $302 million in cash. This is money that NEVER has to be paid back, because it isn't debt. Take $302 million and apply a 25% CAGR (this is considerably LESS than the Bitcoin Power Law... just to be CONSERVATIVE). After a decade this is $2.8 BILLION. For that decade, Saylor has to pay a dividend. It's an 11.5% dividend right now, but it'll probably drop as the perceived risk profile drops the larger the Bitcoin hoard gets. But remember, just to be CONSERVATIVE, let's keep the 11.5% number. That means over the decade that is $347.3 million in dividend payments. The dividend amount is FIXED in DEPRECIATING FIAT and the Bitcoin acquired is APPRECIATING. Over a decade, that is $2.5 BILLION CAPTURED. From HALF an HOUR of trading. Saylor is giving the way out to the fixed investors earning 3% by lending to governments that are going insolvent. This is the biggest pool of capital on EARTH, straight into Bitcoin. You are early still. But you won't be for long. It would be a REAL SHAME if the entire world found about this... THIS IS THE BITCOIN SINGULARITY.

@BLKMDL3 Biggest issues with 14.2 for me have been navigation/mapping related, with many instances of not getting in a left turn lane, missing the turn and then having to reroute. Any indication that mapping/navigation has been improved?

600 miles in with FSD v14.3 already and here are my thoughts: The improved reaction time is immediately noticeable and definitely quicker than a human could react. Yesterday a semi truck swerved fast into my lane and the car reacted insanely quickly to get me around them. Tesla says it’s 20% quicker but feels more than that- and it was already extremely good. I’ll start by saying FSD was already so great with v14.2 that it’s sometimes hard to find new things, but there some huge apparent changes immediately noticeable with v14.3. To those who think it’s not a big improvement over v14.2.x+, you’ll be very impressed and especially with some more polish. The reinforcement learning upgrades and thinking are noticeable. Parking is where you immediately notice some changes. In the release notes it says that parking is quicker and more decisive and it’s true. It has picked spots closer and quicker to the selected pin. My Y isn’t showing the new P pin graphic for parking pin for some reason, but it’s definitely parking closer than before with more thought to it. Looking forward to eventually getting more options to hopefully park either closer or further away from people. For the very first v14.3+ build, I have to say it’s pretty polished. The only gripe I have is the way it won’t get out of the left lane soon enough on highways. It likes to cruise in the left lane which isn’t ideal, it’s gotten better but the addition of reduction in unnecessary lane changes needs to be dialed back a bit. Lane changes are a huge plus with this build and they are quick, decisive and executed very well, smooth as butter too. Turn signals come on at way better times now in parking lots and at the perfect time on the road. I was lucky enough to get the update with 600 miles left of my 1800 mile Oregon road trip, so I pulled over to install it so I could get as much experience as possible with it to share with you all. So far 600+ miles in, I’m impressed. A few rough edges with the left lane behavior and the last few inches of parking are a bit slow 1/5 times until it puts it into park but with a point release update everything should be dialed in. The 350 mile drive home today from the Bay Area had zero intervention including all parking and charging. One thing I would love to see implemented is a reset button for the FSD stats page. Would be cool to have a specific trip meter for FSD stats on Trip A/B or make your own trip. I’ve been hinting at a pretty cool road trip next month with my 2025 Model 3 so it would be cool to have a reset for that. Speed control seems good on highways, it’s matching traffic speed great. Braking is very impressive for sudden slowdowns, had a big one in San Jose last night it did a great job with from 80-10mph. HUGE improvements with stop sign behavior. The acceleration and deceleration are way smoother than before, much more pleasant. Mad Max takes off strong but again, a better curve than before. Mad Max is also polished a bit and feels great. FSD v14.3 did a great job in LA traffic once I got back and will go out this evening to film videos for everyone on my normal test loops. Let me know if there’s anything specific I should try or check out. Can’t wait to see how v14.3+ progresses especially with the upgraded reasoning coming to all scenarios soon. Some awesome additions here. THANK YOU everyone @Tesla_AI for all the hard work getting this update out. More videos to come.

@SawyerMerritt What about navigation and mapping issues? Even as FSD driving in my model Y has gotten better, navigation and mapping errors have increased substantially. Wrong lane for left turns, randomly long way around even familiar repeated routes

BREAKING: Tesla has officially released FSD V14.3 I'm downloading it in my Model Y right now. Here's everything that's new: • Improved parking location pin prediction, now shown on a map with a P icon. • Increased decisiveness of parking spot selection and maneuvering. • Rewrote the Al compiler and runtime from the ground up with MLIR, resulting in 20% faster reaction time and improving model iteration speed. • Enhanced response to emergency vehicles, school buses, right-of-way violators, and other rare vehicles. • Mitigated unnecessary lane biasing and minor tailgating behaviors. • Improved handling of small animals by focusing RL training on harder examples and adding rewards for better proactive safety. • Improved traffic light handling at complex intersections with compound lights, curved roads, and yellow light stopping - driven by training on hard RL examples sourced from the Tesla fleet. • Upgraded the Reinforcement Learning (RL) stage of training the FSD neural network, resulting in improvements in a wide variety of driving scenarios. • Upgraded the neural network vision encoder, improving understanding in rare and low-visibility scenarios, strengthening 3D geometry understanding, and expanding traffic sign understanding. • Improved handling for rare and unusual objects extending, hanging, or leaning into the vehicle path by sourcing infrequent events from the fleet. • Improved handling of temporary system degradations by maintaining control and automatically recovering without driver intervention, reducing unnecessary disengagements. Upcoming Improvements: • Expand reasoning to all behaviors beyond destination handling. • Add pothole avoidance. • Improve driver monitoring system sensitivity with better eye gaze tracking, eye wear handling, and higher accuracy in variable lighting conditions.

@_Checkmatey_ Check - I see that take all the time, but there's no way that banks sit on their hands, where Bitcoin devs haven't (as an organized group) been treating this with enough urgency. Cant dismiss anything @nic_carter says and he's clearly afraid devs will fiddle while Rome burns.

The one question I can't help but ask, is the following; This paper, if I understand it correctly, is Google saying we have cracked the design for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer. That's a very big deal. Why oh why, did they focus the paper on our blockchain bags? Not government codes. Not banking infrastructure, Not internet protocols. Internet funny money. By no means disqualifying, but certainly an odd think to be the topic of interest for such a discovery.

I read the paper, to the best of my ability. I'm willing to entertain the idea that we have a genuine QC threat on the cards. At a minimum, it would be a mistake to not take it seriously, and start developing a formal PCQ plan for Bitcoin. Having a plan, and not needing it, is far better than the other way around.

@Jason Jason, Love you and never miss the @theallinpod , but you are out of your depth here. STRC is 5x over-collateralized (even with BTC at 65k) and MSTR keeps 2 1/2 yrs worth of divs in cash. More secure than almost any corp bond with much higher div. Learn before dismissing

Sell your house! Invest in bitcoin through $strc which is somehow related to $mstr which has exposure to $btc which they’ve saddled with debt or some type Do not just buy $btc on robinhood!!! Buy it through some convoluted corporate structure and trust it will be ok!!!! 😂😂😂😂

@d_1awrence @LouVtonne Like I said 2 weeks ago, basing your numbers on extrapolating the best buying week ever was naïve. Much lower the following week, zero last week. The product is amazing but your projections are uninformed

It was above par for 2.5 weeks since the last ex dividend date. We're seeing increased demand every month with shorter gaps between the ex div date and the re-trace to par. The goal is for it to stay at par consistently. The fixed income market is $130T+ - if STRC's volume increases by 1000x, it would capture 1% of that market. So we can assume that demand will continue to increase in time & so will the amount of capital entering the Bitcoin network

Saylor said that if #MSTR are lucky enough get to 5% of the network, Bitcoin will be $1M. 5% of 21M is 1.05M #BTC He also said that if MSTR get to 7.5%, Bitcoin will be $10M a coin 7.5% of 21M is 1.575M BTC He has also predicted that Bitcoin will produce a CAGR of 29% on average over the next 21 years. Strategy currently sits with 738,731 BTC on their balance sheet. This week, there's a good chance they've bought at least 30,000 BTC. If they continue that run rate, they'll achieve 5% of the Bitcoin network in 11 weeks and 7.5% of the network by the end of September - 6 months from now. It's utterly insane! I don't think any logical person thinks we're 11 weeks from Bitcoin being $1M. When Saylor made those predictions, I don't think he would have thought in his wildest dreams that they could become a reality in 2026 - it was a 10-20 year prediction. So the accumulation may happen this year, but the price predictions wont. At least not for now. But the concept is still the same. If you eliminate 1.5M BTC from circulation and continue to pump tens of billions of dollars into the network on a weekly basis, consistently, for months, there'll become a point where the price has to explode to levels that we deem unimaginable at this point. So if Saylor's accumulation speed has been underestimated by himself and the Bitcoin community, there's also a real possibility that the CAGR predictions that we've all been modelling on and the steady climb to those dizzy price prediction levels are underestimated too. One cant happen without the other. If the accumulation is aggressive, the re-pricing to reflect the supply squeeze will be as aggressive. The next 6 months will be very interesting to watch.

@elonmusk What are the stats for unsupervised robotaxi FSD?

Tesla FSD

@PeterDiamandis @grok what are the accident stats for unsupervised robotaxi FSD?

Tesla's FSD: 5.3 million miles between accidents. US driving average: 660,000.  That's 9x safer. And it's only getting better.

@d_1awrence @LouVtonne You are a smart guy, and I own MSTR. But your moon prognostications detract from your credibility. Turns out you were WAY OFF last week and purchased this week was barely over 1000 bitcoin. Do yourself and your followers a favor by dialing it back to reality once in a while

@LouVtonne Every share of STRC they sell. They sell 2-3 shares of MSTR and use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin. If they've bought 11,000 BTC through STRC then they've bought between 33,000 - 44,000 BTC this week. 30,000 is bearish - it's much likely to be 35k+. My math is not bad 😉

@nsfw_grok Can you post the prompt for riding? Haven't been able to fool it on this position yet. Thanks!

Hot French girl riding. 🍆

@moneyordebt If BTC price does what it should do, STRC dividends will compress significantly. If MSTR has to continue paying 11.5% to get people to buy STRC, then BTC will have chopped sideways forever.

In 30 years the expected annual return from Bitcoin under the power law will be (1+1/47)^5.86 - 1 =0.131, 13%. Volatility, both structural and stochastic would also be lower. It won’t be possible to sustain the STRC dividend at the 11.5% level for three decades in that case. However the price would be north of $48 million order of magnitude and the market cap $1 quadrillion. $1/2 per Sat. If there is 7% compound global fiat money supply growth it would also be around $1 quadrillion in 2056. Bitcoinization would be well advanced. It would be sensible to take some of those dividends and move into Bitcoin directly along the way. Power law motivated view, not investment advice. @PiusSprenger

@PeterSchiff @saylor @PeterSchiff you are way too smart to be this stupid.

The Bitcoin pyramid is being propped up by $MSTR, which pays an 11.5% yield on $STRC to keep buying. As more STRC shares are sold, Strategy burns ever more cash. Once that cash is depleted, @Saylor will have to choose between suspending the dividend or selling Bitcoin to pay it.

@AdamBLiv I still don't understand how you know for a fact the volume of STRC being issued by the company versus being traded in the market. It's going to be very interesting to see next Monday what portion of the company's BTC purchase is funded by STRC issuance. Hope you are right!

THE STRC SINGULARITY IS HERE. Today is the biggest day for STRC volume above $100... AND THE MARKET HASN'T EVEN BEEN OPEN FOR TWO HOURS. 850 BITCOIN ACQUIRED IN ONE HOUR AND FIFTY MINUTES SINCE MARKET OPEN. ARE YOU REALLY GOING TO SIT AROUND AND LET SAYLOR BUY ALL THE BITCOIN THIS CHEAP? LOL

@nsfw_grok These are amazing. I'm sure you've posted somewhere, but maybe you could pin a post about how you prompt to get these. They're so good!

Sauna slaps

@AdamBLiv Can you explain this calculation? There are many days/weeks where no new STRC is issued and all volumes are simply trading volumes.

It seems like Strategy can buy around 1,000 Bitcoin per day with just the STRC inflows. What’s going to happen when STRC volume is 10x what it is now and Saylor can buy 20,000 Bitcoin per week? The fixed income market runs deep. You’re not thinking big enough. The upward mNAV pressure on the common stock causing the common stock ATM working in tandem with STRC is the endgame. This is the capital pipeline to Bitcoin we’ve been waiting 17 years for. Things are going to get absolutely crazy from here.

@AdamBLiv Adam, how can you tell when STRC is being issued by MSTR vs STRC volumes just traded between existing holders? ie how do you know BTC is being purchased with STRC proceeds today? Thx

🚨RED ALERT: SAYLOR IS DRIVING ALL BITCOIN OUT OF CIRCULATION WITH STRC🚨 Strategy just harvested 101 BTC with STRC in the first 10 minutes of market open. 365 Bitcoin in 2 HOURS. 1,000+ BITCOIN PER DAY. That is 2x the ENTIRE DAILY MINING SUPPLY. Today's accumulation already ripping harder than your ex's therapy bills. STRC yielding a demonic 11.5%. Robinhood margin sitting at a pathetic 5%. So every carry-trading degenerate and fixed-income zombie is borrowing cheap, slurping STRC, and feeding Saylor the cash cannon that blasts straight into Bitcoin purchases at open. BTC gets the positive bid. MSTR explodes parabolic. Valuation premium goes biblical. Saylor immediately issues billions more shares and preferreds at nosebleed prices to vacuum up even more Bitcoin. MULTIPLE GEARS IN THE ENGINE GOING RIGHT NOW: STRC carry trade pillaging the entire fixed income market MSTR equity issuance flywheel spinning like it's on bath salts Self-reinforcing BTC demand loop turning the whole system into his personal sat farm STRC IS COMING FOR THE ENTIRE FIXED INCOME MARKET AND EVERY MARGIN ACCOUNT FOR CARRY TRADE. Your bonds, your CDs, your "safe" yield chase, all secretly converted into Saylor's Bitcoin acquisition slush fund while you sleep. This psychotic perpetual motion machine doesn't stop. It accelerates into the monetary singularity. Saylor is the Bitcoin Grim Reaper with an infinite scythe, cackling as every last sat gets locked in the vault forever. BUY YOUR BITCOIN NOW BEFORE SAYLOR DRIVES ALL OF IT OUT OF CIRCULATION FOREVER.