pollcat

This AAPOR report is amazingly comprehensive. It's based on a massive data collection effort that compiled polling across elections at various levels and geographies extending back to 2000.

The AAPOR Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling released its final report today aapor.org/wp-content/upl…

Major conclusions:

Today's release of the 2025 NPORS survey and data wasn't the only thing we were up to. Here's a piece on why we decided to add past vote to our survey weighting and how it's done pewresearch.org/decoded/2025/0…

And here are party affiliation trends from six years of NPORS data pewresearch.org/politics/fact-…

Calling all data nerds! Pew Research Center has just released its 2025 edition of NPORS, with estimates of U.S. party affiliation, religious affiliation and frequency of internet use. See the fact sheet and links to the dataset at pewresearch.org/methods/fact-s…

We took a broad look at social trust in America today. With a survey of almost 37,000 people we were able to look at levels of trust across the states and even in metro areas. Check out our new report here pewresearch.org/SocialTrust

My colleague @katschaeffer and I contribute a chapter about covering election polls for this new edition of The IRE Journal. Check it out!

We put together a little grab-bag of things to know about election polling in the US, for example that polling methods are quite different today than in 2016, that the margin of sampling error captures just one of several kinds of error, and much more pewrsr.ch/3iay5d5

@rnishimura @nataliemj10 @Nate_Cohn @bradytwest Thank you @rnishimura !

@pollcat @nataliemj10 @Nate_Cohn If we think this is really a nonresponse issue (which would be quite severe, imho), maybe we can play with some approaches, like the ones @bradytwest and others have been working recently to address nonignorable nonresponse. I'll also try to look into that when I have some time.

@nataliemj10 @rnishimura @Nate_Cohn Thanks @nataliemj10 We will definitely continue to look for what might account for the differences

@Nate_Cohn @nataliemj10 @rnishimura Thanks @Nate_Cohn these are good ideas.

@pollcat @nataliemj10 @rnishimura and given the preponderance of evidence showing a dem decline among young voters right now -- whether it's the other high-quality surveys or the collapse in dem voter registration -- i hope you look into this more!

@pollcat @nataliemj10 @rnishimura to be clear: likeliest to remain empaneled*

In our new survey, only 24% of voters say the phrase “mentally sharp” describes Biden; 58% say the same of Trump. Meanwhile, about twice as many voters describe Trump as mean-spirited (64%) than say that about Biden (31%). pewrsr.ch/4bzF6zH

NEW A pair of candidates with some notable personal weaknesses: Just 24% of voters - including 53% of his supporters- say Biden is "mentally sharp." Just 36% describe Trump as honest. 64% - including 39% of his supporters - say Trump is "mean-spirited." pewresearch.org/politics/2024/…

@nataliemj10 @rnishimura @Nate_Cohn We're confident the survey we released today provides an accurate snapshot of where the presidential race stands. And we're confident that NPORS provides a solid estimate of party identification among the public overall.

@nataliemj10 @rnishimura @Nate_Cohn As you all know, polling young adults has been challenging this year. Their generally low level of political engagement and higher mobility make them harder to interview.