PolyBeats

@GenaTheCroco @yuyifang256 #unitedwegamble #ohsaycanyougamble

Why are we letting communist China to interpret Polymarket rules? That's not what our founding fathers intended when they invented American english.

(4/4) 截至发帖时，mombil 在「美伊永久和平协议」相关事件已投入超 8 万美元 上一次他这么集中地重仓某一交易事件还要回溯到 4 月份：美伊停火前夕，他和本次一样利用期权中「时间价差」的交易策略重仓「美伊停火」相关盘口 在「伊朗停火 x 60%-65%」这个区间交集内，他的 6 笔交易在卖飞 $97k 的情况下总收益 $59k 这次几乎是一模一样的交易模式：重仓同一交易事件、同一交易策略 他用 8 万美元表达一个观点：美伊即将达成永久和平协议 关注 t.me/PolyBeats_Bot，我们会结合宏观资讯、专业分析、以及这些用钱表达观点的交易者来呈现以预测市场为表达形式的新闻和快讯 🫡

(3/4) 2⃣ 板块 x 入场价 Top 30 本图通过 Matrix 形式展现出 mombil 交易对应板块出现频率，以及每个板块在不同入场价区间下的盈利情况 可以明显看出，mombil 在政治、特朗普、地缘政治板块的收益表现十分突出，而入场价小于 $0.5 的表现则明显弱于高价位区间的收益 这也是为什么 PolyBeats 频道在快讯中加入了针对每个交易者的板块盈利分析数据：以 mombil 为例，他在体育板块低概率的交易参考价值远低于其在概率 65% 时押注某国总统选举所能阐述的信息

PolyBeats 预测市场账户分析 - @mombil mombil 自 2024 年 7 月 19 日创建账户以来账面盈利已超过 55 万美元，总计超过 2,700 笔交易，胜率 62.8% 本 thread 包含该账户卖飞/逃顶表现、入场价/投注金额盈利区分、以及其目前正在重仓押注哪件事儿要发生👇 懒人版： 1. 重仓卖飞了 $274k 2. 政治板块入场价大于 $0.5 的表现远优于低概率押注 3. 用期权里的「时间价差」交易策略赌美伊停火大赚，但难逃人性卖飞 $97k 4. 目前押注美伊即将签订永久停火协议 (1/4)

@Autonomous_Chad @Polymarket u can ask ai how to edit webpage using f12🫡 Would be comical if they actually make such a market tho lol

@poly_beats @Polymarket LMAO. How did you generate that graphic ?

UPDATE on the disappearing Weather markets Yesterday the Weather markets in the Temperature category disappeared and some trader even lost their open positions. @polymarket announced that the market were *intentionally* pulled down due to an initial reconfiguration error and that users would be refunded with 10 days. Today all those archived markets are being quietly resolved to random outcomes. Since Polymarket contracts settle on chain there is actually no way for them to just delete markets and refund everyone. All they can do is force resolution through "clarifications" and then refund the losing shares out of pocket But it means there is also no way for them to avoid paying out the "winning" shares there. So if you bought some cheap shares on a bracket that Polymarket just happened to resolve to you will get a nice free payout. OVERALL : - Big fuckup at the start - Good handling of it afterward It's is an improvement on the Ukraine ceasefire fuckup from last week. If they had treated it the same way the handled this situation and refunded NO holders it would have been a non issue.

@yongkslovemi @Claypppp 🥲可怕的纪律性

@poly_beats @Claypppp ，做LP 被 filled 肯定立刻卖出，以保持资源利用最大效率 （大部份情况亏损出）

教科书般的反指其实是台印钞机？ PolyBeats 今天复盘地址时发现一个老哥 @Claypppp 的收益曲线平滑得离谱 唯一的「小」问题就是曲线是往下跑，总胜率 8%，账户创建以来只有 1 天是交易赚钱了（赚了 4 毛 不过如果把老哥的做市收益一起加进去的话，他的收益曲线又成了另一种极端，这次就是平滑地上行 老哥在仓位上总亏损 $10.5k，而做市收益总计已经超过 $13.5k 不懂就问，小编跟他反买是不是就能稳赚🥲

@Claypppp 🫡 was fun researching your trades bruv, thx for the insight

@poly_beats Hey thanks for the tag. Market making is indeed at loss by nature. We don’t hold positions so losses are made by sharp and fast market moves

@GenaTheCroco dw team's going to fix everything, starting with building apple id login🫡

Each day that passes another Polymarket scam. How is this allowed? I've played in a lot of casinos in my life, this one is the WOOOOOOOORST. Bought Mcap will be over $250, got over $250M, UNFAIR 😡.

@atteonthephone @mustafap0ly @williamlegate apple id login soon 🫡

It's now day 3 since "decentralized" crypto exchange Polymarket pressed a magic button that made our money disappear. @mustafap0ly and @williamlegate keep repeating that refunds are coming without specifying which positions will be paid, despite multiple people asking for days.

来个顶级叙事： 离结算只剩一天的时候这仨的概率应该都是个位数 6 月 30 日，同时修复这仨 bug，那些赚巨多的人会去发推，大肆宣传「你看，拿真金白银押注团队在做事一定会有回报」 团队把 bug 修了，名声赚了，流量也来了 图片仅供娱乐，希望 @polymarket 越做越好

这是又要开打了？ 伊朗在本轮美以联合打击当天宣布关闭领空，并在停火后第 10 天宣布部分领空恢复开放 然而近 48 小时内，Polymarket 上已经出现了数个可疑内幕交易押注伊朗领空将再次关闭： 1⃣ 账户1 在本轮打击发生前 6 小时注册账户，通过精准预测打击和停火时间用 2 万美元本金赚到 40 万，随后取现离场 4 月 15 日，该可疑人士把钱充到了另一个新的 Polymarket 账户并押注以色列黎巴嫩会在 24 小时内宣布停火 这笔交易成本价 5c，最高翻了 16 倍仍未止盈。4 月 16 日，以黎双方宣布达成停火协议 5 月 18 日，该可疑人士再次创建新 Polymarket 账户并押注伊朗将于 5 天内关闭领空，潜在收益超 14 万美元； 2⃣ 另一个可疑账户需要回溯到 2025 年十二日战争前夕： 账户2 注册于 2025 年 6 月 12 日，并在随后押注以色列将于 24 小时内打击伊朗 押注后 22 小时，以色列全面开启对伊朗的打击，该账户实现近 3 倍盈利后取现离场 2 天前，此可疑账户再次创建新 Polymarket 账户并押注伊朗即将关闭领空，潜在收益 5 倍。 PolyBeats 已对该两名可疑账户资金链路进行系统整理，可供核查： 账户1：t.me/PolyBeats_Bot/… 账户2：t.me/PolyBeats_Bot/…

@poly_data Copytrade smart ppl and cope he wins 😞

What’s the one tool you can’t trade Polymarket without?