Claypppp

428 posts

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Claypppp

Claypppp

@Claypppp

Polymarket LP

Katılım Haziran 2013
552 Takip Edilen55 Takipçiler
Claypppp
Claypppp@Claypppp·
@FabianoSolana Read again the formula, you can’t be Gold with less than 5882$ taker fees (economics category, no additional booster)
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Claypppp
Claypppp@Claypppp·
@poly_beats Hey thanks for the tag. Market making is indeed at loss by nature. We don’t hold positions so losses are made by sharp and fast market moves
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PolyBeats
PolyBeats@poly_beats·
教科书般的反指其实是台印钞机? PolyBeats 今天复盘地址时发现一个老哥 @Claypppp 的收益曲线平滑得离谱 唯一的「小」问题就是曲线是往下跑,总胜率 8%,账户创建以来只有 1 天是交易赚钱了(赚了 4 毛 不过如果把老哥的做市收益一起加进去的话,他的收益曲线又成了另一种极端,这次就是平滑地上行 老哥在仓位上总亏损 $10.5k,而做市收益总计已经超过 $13.5k 不懂就问,小编跟他反买是不是就能稳赚🥲
PolyBeats tweet mediaPolyBeats tweet media
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PolyFundr
PolyFundr@PolyFundr·
THE WORLDS FIRST PROP FIRM FOR POLYMARKET IS HERE! If you believe you have the skill to trade @Polymarket but not the capital, we are here for you! Receive up to $200,000 in funded capital with @PolyFundr and prove your edge! ✨ We are giving away 5 free $200,000 accounts TONIGHT to random people who retweet and comment on this post. Good luck! polyfundr.com Your skill. Our capital.
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Claypppp
Claypppp@Claypppp·
@securezer0 Interesting, do you estimate revenues with live orderbook and documentation rewards formula, based on orders sitting at the best bid and ask ? How about liquidity ? I’m building a MM bot and market selection is key but polymarket doesn’t expose all reward information through API
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SecureZero 
SecureZero @securezer0·
Did you know Polymarket will pay you to lose money? Its as simple as: 1. Find a market with big rewards & low competition 2. Place limit orders in the books 3. Generate APY paid out daily The problem? The market moves against you, filling your limits as the odds fall!
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Claypppp
Claypppp@Claypppp·
@securezer0 How many books per WS subscription do you find the most reliable?
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SecureZero 
SecureZero @securezer0·
Just finished a huge UPGRADE to my Polymarket Arbitrage Trading Bot 📈 $41,514 +EV - [ Right Now] ✳️ 1,032% Spread - [ Right Now] #⃣ 3X More Arbitrage Opportunities I had to break a lot of rules to get this to work, If Polymarket finds out I might be in trouble... But it was worth it! I was able to bypass the restrictions that are holding back other Arbitrage Trading Bots Here’s how it all works... MARKET MATCHING The bot is looking for arbitrages across 5 different Prediction Markets To do that we are indexing millions of individual markets To try to find the few thousand functionally identical pairs between platforms That's billions of potential matches To find the few thousand market pairs that are functionally equivalent between platforms we are using a four part matching system: 1. Keyword extraction, ranking & matching 2. Trigram, Jaccard & Vector hybrid matching algorithm of the market titles, close conditions, alternative titles & outcomes 3. LLM Prompt matching checking for functional equivalence of market rules -> Incredibly inconsistent, hence the need for part 4, building a system like this at scale will open your eyes to the shortcomings of AI 4. Human verification + 99.8% Accuracy + 6,320 Markets Matched Once we have our markets, we move onto.. ARBITRAGE DETECTION - [ UPGRADED ] To detect if there is an arbitrage we need two things Market Odds & Orderbooks Market Odds: This will show us the ‘Spread’, if the sum of Market A YES & Market B NO is less than $1, or vice versa, we have a potential arbitrage Orderbooks: This will show us the "EV", much we can arbitrage profit we can extract, according to the available liquidity and slippage of both orderbooks This is where we had been severely limited in the past, due to inadequacies of the WebSocket feeds and API rate limits Polymarket: Orderbook initial dumps & entire orderbook price levels missing when connecting hundreds of markets to the WS feed, undisclosed multi-WS rate limits Opinion: API rate limits, WS delta updates missing, WS delta updates sent in wrong order, asks sent below best bid, airdrop farming bots posting and filling their own orders breaking WS feed. Kalshi: Rate limits and minor book inaccuracies at scale PredictFun & Probable: Surprisingly accurate as of current, monitoring how they handle increasing volumes To get past these limits and scale the Arbitrage Finder we built some advanced new systems 1. Multiple Instances Instead of scaling vertically we moved to scaling horizontally, a central controller handles the deployment & management of multiple proxied worker instances that each keep a local record of a subset of the market orderbooks and detect arbitrage opportunities as soon as dif updates are received These worker instances feed the orderbook data back to the main controller which aggregates all information in one place and formats along them with relevant metadata to be fetched by our trading interfaces and applications 2. Handling “Junk Data” One of the most challenging parts of scaling this application is dealing with the inaccuracies of the data provided by the APIs that we refer to as ‘Junk Data’ Some are easy to deal with: - Book updates returned in the wrong order required an additional ‘lastTimestamp’ value at each book level which was referenced before any future updates are applied, if diff update timestamp was prior to lastTimestamp the dif update is ignored. - Missing book dumps / levels reduced almost entirely by reducing the number of CLOB tokens per WS connection - Dif ask/bid flips appearing at impossible levels are not applied Some were a lot more challenging: - Missing book updates were only detectable with revalidation & comparison, we don’t know what we don't know until we know we don't know it. More complex revalidation triggers and short recycling periods minimize the issue With these updates we can scale the number of local orderbooks we are handling at one time: Before: ~4,000 orderbooks After: ~10,000 orderbooks This, along with the improvements in orderbook accuracy, has increased arb density by 3X Meaning we’re finding 3X the amount of opportunities as before 3. Rate limit bypass To bypass the API limits that limit the quantity of markets we can subscribe to at once we had to ██████ ███ █ ██████ █████ █████████ TRADING SYSTEMS - [ NEW ] The data is only as good as you can display it, ultimately the format in which the data is served will determine how efficiently it can be acted upon We’ve created a system of interconnected tools that enable us to trade these opportunities, each with a different specific use case 1. AlertPilot Trading Terminal A dashboard displaying all the hundreds of arbitrage opportunities the bot has found across 5 different prediction markets in real time + Arbitrage Calculator, showing you exactly how much to bid to take advantage of the arbitrage according to your bankroll, fees & slippage + Double Price Chart, which helps traders to estimate how long their arbitrage take to close + Strategy Guide, explaining how to execute arbitrage trades most effectively to maximize profits + Position Manager, connect your wallets to see your open arbitrage positions, EV, profits & exits 2. AlertPilot Telegram Bot A system for getting alerts on all new arbitrage opportunities immediately, EV, Spreads & market links + Custom Settings, only see the arbitrages you’d want to take with user specific settings + Position Sell Alerts, connected to the AlertPilot Position Manager, get alerts to your phone when its time to sell your arbitrage positions + All 5 Markets, alerts on all 5 supported prediction markets: Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion, Probable & PredictFun 3. AlertPilot Discord Bot Private chat rooms and arbitrage alerts on the AlertPilot Discord Group + Custom Alerts, the best arbitrage alerts are sent to the discord channel + Support, traders answering your questions on Arbitrage Trading 4. Arbitrage Trading Terminal [ SOON ] A trading terminal built specifically for Arbitrage + Atomic Execution, enter positions on two platforms at the same time + Visualize the Arbitrage, trade with both charts in one place, see the gap close as you take your positions + Manage positions across multiple prediction markets in one place
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Paradox
Paradox@Parad0xWeb3·
$Pi has been one of my biggest wins this year so far. 🙏 I've been mining it with my family for about 6 years. I’ve sold around 6K Pi already and am still holding over 5K. Also, waiting for another 15K+ from the second migration. Anyone else excited for what's ahead? 👀
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Paradox
Paradox@Parad0xWeb3·
@cryptot Yeah, I think the same. However, I anticipate a small dump when they will announce the second migration dates.
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Kamino
Kamino@KaminoCrypto·
Searching some FIFA motivated players on @playdubbz tonight, starting in 1h30. 5-10$ bets, console or PC doesn’t matter. Dm if interested
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Claypppp
Claypppp@Claypppp·
@KaminoCrypto @playdubbz I’m in. Will be available in a week or so when FIFA 24 goes on Xbox game pass. Would love to bet on 2v2 games a well
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Kamino
Kamino@KaminoCrypto·
Searching for FIFA 24 players up to bet 5$ on multiple 1v1s again my friend, on @playdubbz If interested please reply below this post.
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CR
CR@CuratedByR·
Stop selling on-chain, you're making my gas fees go up to $150+ per TX.
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barneytheboi
barneytheboi@barneytheboi·
Is there anywhere I can bet on either me or ansem knocking ourselves out in the fight?
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barneytheboi
barneytheboi@barneytheboi·
Me vs @blknoiz06 CFN main event for @WBCBoxing belt April 19th, Dubai Things are about to get seriously silly Lets $goo
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cevo
cevo@cryptocevo·
Yeah then people calling me manipulatoor while others send here dogshit from 7k marketcap to 9 fig. No thanks
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Trador by Secret Society $SS
Trador mobile has launched! Experience up to 60% lower gas fees, competitive rates, and a seamless mobile experience that redefines crypto trading. Beta.Trador.io ( Changing to Trador.io with the desktop version launch this week)
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