precedexter

@Z06Z07 @hillery_dan thoughts? I'm trying to compare your model. I'm too dumb to find the disconnect.

@HermesLux Yes, without any further issuance of shares.

At a $1T market cap, and a 1.07 mNAV—the same as it is now— $MSTR would trade at $3,000+/share.

@MSTR_Today Possible. Not likely though. Either BTC needs ATH or mNAV expands. The one other wildcard is earnings; if they announce a partnership with a large bank? $250 on the table.

Why MSTR Will Hit $250 by Feb 15th. A 🧵

@AdamBLiv You have to consider the increase in price in BTC.

Want some Strategy BULL FUEL? I absolutely cannot wait for the first full week of STRC ATM. Let the projections begin. Based on a partial last week, assuming all the cash raised went directly to Bitcoin, Strategy bought ~255 BTC with the STRC ATM. The product is too good for the market to ignore. The volatility is compressing to near zero by staying at 100. The cash will flow from the institutions. People are STILL underselling this and not understanding how bullish this is for MSTR, Strategy, and Bitcoin itself. At just a 2% compounding weekly increase (BEARISH) in trading volume from last week's baseline... here’s the implied projection if all proceeds go to Bitcoin: Year 1 ≈ 22,954 BTC Year 2 ≈ 64,279 BTC Year 3 ≈ 180,003 BTC ≈ 267,236 BTC total The persistent bid on BTC will be IMMENSE. Saylor will create INCREDIBLE WEALTH for all Bitcoiners.

@HermesLux @TheBTCTherapist I think if you take last weeks volume and extrapolate, <10% of volume was used for BTC purchase? 10% =17 million=170 BTC. Probably less. We’ll see next week. Could vol be algos arbing?

@TheBTCTherapist ya... temporary, until more BTC is purchased. I don't want to say what I think right now, but the amount of BTC they could purchase today on STRC alone is very significant.

$153M in $STRC volume. 45 minutes left. Still $100/share. This is going to be massive.

@Thelastgoodbet @bitharington Everyone focuses on demand and “diminishing returns.” The real story is supply. Only ~2.1M BTC left on exchanges. It’s not going to take 10T to take us to Valhalla.

@bitharington Make sense, too many get sucked into 1million a coin. The sheer capital it takes for that is off the scale. I mean we are at 1.6T marketcap now. I don’t think there is suddenly 10T plus about to flow into Bitcoin.

It took seven years to go from $10K Bitcoin (2017) to $100K Bitcoin (2024). The journey from $100K Bitcoin to $1M Bitcoin will take longer than seven years imo. Diminishing returns are very real.

@HermesLux I’d love for this to be true, but we’ll see. Technically, STRC ATM issuance can happen between $99-101 (per their investor presentation), and we haven’t seen it yet.

$STRC ATM

@rajatsoni @THEF00LZER0 Target range $99-101 for STRC issuance via atm according to their investor presentation.

@THEF00LZER0 I thought it was $100+

$100 STRC! MSTR can now start ATMing STRC to buy Bitcoin Do you understand how bullish this is? Brand new source of funding unlocked

@GrammarHodl @HermesLux It depends on bitcoins strength. If my 10 delta from the previous week is now 20-25 with 3-4 DTE and BTC looks strong, Ill roll out and up for credit for piece of mind.

@precedexter @HermesLux But say it moves against you intra-week? Would you move up if the short call went from 10 to 20 delta? Or would you have a higher trigger?

By now, I hope everyone sees that selling 40 DTE 10 deltas, and rolling weekly, works. Earnings don't matter, Fed announcements don't matter, NASDAQ inclusion didn't matter, and S&P inclusion, likewise, won't matter. I don't see a need to go lower than the 10 delta. This year would have a been a good time to sell 20-30 deltas all year, but you never really know when you'll get burned; hindsight is always 20/20. 40 DTE 10 deltas are the safer bet. Lastly, I would not sell 10 deltas less than 40 DTE; even though it could work out, you're not at any advantage by subjecting yourself to a shorter dated expiration. If you're shares get called away at 40 DTE, they will get called away at a much higher price.

@GrammarHodl @HermesLux If I capture 60-70% of the premium by Monday or Tuesday with 3-4 DTE, I’ll consider rolling down to capture a little more premium. Then I’ll eventually roll on Friday to the next weeks contract. This can also be done with 30-40 DTE.

@precedexter @HermesLux At what point do you roll? When they hit a certain delta?

@AGratefulApe @HermesLux Well, you don’t lose your shares if you roll 🤷🏻‍♂️ but honestly, either way, it has been profitable/easy in a flat/down market. The real test will be when $MSTR sentiment shifts and price starts going up.

@precedexter @HermesLux I've been trying to understand the pros/cons of this myself. It seems that Hermes says that weeklies have risk of gamma-fication and you are at higher risk of losing shares this way. What are your thoughts?

@_adrian However, unfortunately, ATM complaints can drive sentiment.

$MSTR ATM complaints back in full swing... 1. $STRC Dividends 2. mNAV guidance was clarified, move on. 3. The ATM doesn't drive price.

@GoingParabolic When retail?

Grown ups with plans do this with their bitcoin. Full stop. This is how real money is made and kept.

@BitcoinKittyCat @ryQuant @mc_khristina What about it? This is the past week, right? You can cherry pick to meet the narrative but context was YTD.

When I first bought $MSTR a few years ago I was trading the stock because of its large intraday and weekly swings and the IV for options was enormous… when I first ‘owned’ and became an ‘investor’ in $MSTR I was doing so for what I expected to be decent $MSTR outperformance verses Bitcoin … I am starting to question if $MSTR can and will outperform Bitcoin … I do think with the introduction of the preferreds that this could be a significant positive, transformative catalyst (putting less pressure on the common and innovating interest bearing securities) … but I am paying close attention here …. Unless AI is wrong, YTD $MSTR: +45.67% verses Bitcoin: +52.14% so Bitcoin has outperformed $MSTR YTD … and unless you are writing calls and making up for performance and managing to generate significant additional and outperformance verses BTC… I am starting to ask myself why not just own Bitcoin … you know what you own, the most pristine asset … no key man risk, no potential capital surprises … thinking out loud 🤷🏼‍♀️

@cliffreid Metformin high on the diff for someone like that, too.

Lactate around 20 has everyone flapping but the patient is alert and well perfused Time to use system 2 thinking and understand the causes of elevated lactates This is NOT a patient dying of sepsis or organ hypoperfusion In this case it was an alcohol dependent patient whose lactate normalised within hours of thiamine replacement youtu.be/TuvKcplVQLg?si…

@jv_finance Is possible. At current mNav, BTC would need to be at $250k. With more pref ATMing, prefs getting rated? BTC run up, and sentiment (mNav) improving (from the above), $1000 could be hit at $150k BTC price.

The downside for $MSTR is minimal right now, while the upside is massive — just insane. Fair value is set to rise over the next three months, and the numbers speak for themselves. $MSTR above $1,000 in the coming months is more likely than not. Are you ready?

@BitMasterK In market cap, yes. You need to factor in 25-30% annual share increase via common stock ATM though for the actual share price; something most people don’t mention.

Don’t lose your Focus on $MSTR. They are a MONSTER. They will be a $10t company in the future & are currently trading at just $0.1t. That is an easy 100x.

@villamilalx @MasonFoard @hillery_dan What’s your take on STRK/STRF? Isn’t the fixed income market the bigger deal here? Everyone talks about the MSTR ATM, but if STRF/STRK can get rated and start raising capital via those ATMs; won’t they be able to outpace the MSTR ATM?

Why would it have a short squeeze if saylor sells more shares? The bears have an easy way out. There’s no surprise factor anymore, that’s why IV is low. Serious question, I really want someone to explain it to me when does this stop. What is the way forward. I really want MSTR for the long term but when will this stop.

What’s the reflexive derivative of a Bitcoin short squeeze? The $MSTR short squeeze. I wonder how $MSTR LEAPS will fare in these conditions 🤔🤔🤔 @hillery_dan

@Gma530 I saw someone say they called Fidelity directly and could purchase shares that way - if someone would like to confirm that.