I'vebeeninthisbusinessalongtime

542 posts

I'vebeeninthisbusinessalongtime

I'vebeeninthisbusinessalongtime

@privatequity73

Katılım Mayıs 2025
978 Takip Edilen138 Takipçiler
I'vebeeninthisbusinessalongtime
@mac51246 @genesimmons You mean you did all that Chad and still thought that Rock Stars just spontaneously generate and appear fully grown playing for 20,000 people? And do tell more about the battery biz-you the CEO? Founder? Gonna go out on a limb and say sales. A mouthpiece. Keep it real.
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Chad McDonald
Chad McDonald@mac51246·
@genesimmons I worked on a farm at 11. I worked at a gas station 14. I Painted and roofed houses and worked construction from 15-20. I graduated college with a biology degree. I ran a billion dollar / year computer business at 32. I sold a battery company to Tesla at 46.
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Gene Simmons
Gene Simmons@genesimmons·
Well…I started working at 12 years of age working for a butcher, grinding the fat from the butcher’s block. I delivered newspapers. I was the assistant to the director of the Puerto Rican interagency council. I was the assistant of the editor of Vogue magazine. And I was a 6th grade teacher. And what have you done with your life, Chad?
Chad McDonald@mac51246

@genesimmons Once you’ve worked an office job or a blue collar job you can ask that question again.

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JonnyV
JonnyV@JonnyV_916·
Huh? You mean our parents paid 60k. I’m a boomer and my first home in 1992 was 159k, adjusted for inflation is 370k today. Back in 1992 it took my wife working full time and me working full time + a part time job for 10 years to save the down payment and afford paying the mortgage. It wasn’t until 2008 that I earned enough that my wife could retire and we could afford life on my salary alone. I am sick of this shit. Who told you that you should be able to afford a house alone at 27 and blame us when you can’t? 🖕🏻🤡
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Matthew H
Matthew H@MattH_4America·
For most Americans under the age of 45, the American Dream is dead To everyone over the age of 60, married, with 3 kids, 7 grandkids, and a home that is paid for, just understand this: Your country will radically change in the next 10-15 years because no one is listening to us
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I'vebeeninthisbusinessalongtime
@BillAckman @DougKass So what someone w/NPD or some other major personality disorder would do is victim monger, drama monger, and diagnose others with complex disorders-that are easy to project onto others when the knowledge of my own frailties is so obvious-it's almost like it's bubbling up out of me
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Bill Ackman
Bill Ackman@BillAckman·
My original draft post went into detail about her and her circumstances, but I didn’t want it to look like I was seeking sympathy in light of her challenges, and upon reflection I thought it important to protect the details of her condition and recovery. Her importance should not be measured by the words about her I included, but rather by how we have all worked to save her. You are correct the TABLE mess happened due to my inattention. I relied on someone I trusted to leave more time for family and my day job. My most precious resource is time and I can’t give everything the time it deserves without compromising on other more important things in life. I wrote the post because I thought it would have a positive effect on a persistent and growing problem, that is, the shakedowns that take place in corporate America when an employee is terminated. Yes, I did get some psychological relief by posting it, but I thought it would have a bigger and more important effect in inspiring others to fight these battles. From the posts virality, it appears I am achieving my objective.
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Dougie Kass
Dougie Kass@DougKass·
In response to Bill Ackman's tweet below: The health situation regarding your daughter is devastating and everyone hopes for her speedy recovery. That said, her illness is buried in one paragraph (of less than 100 words) surrounded by thousands of words describing a billionaire's "problems" - which were caused by inattention on your part. In reading this tweet and your expansive tweets over the years I am reminded of Max Lucado's quote: "God can't fill you when you are already full of yourself." I don't think I have ever been exposed to anyone in the hedge fund industry (or in business world for that matter) that is so consistently wrapped up in himself, is self absorbed and has an inflated sense of self-importance. ("Narcissistic Personality Disorder" comes to mind). Your 'challenges' don't even register on my "Give a shit meter." @BillAckman @dougkass @WhitneyTilson @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @ferrotv @SquawkCNBC @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @guyadami @saraeisen @BobPisani @SullyCNBC @pboockvar @LanceRoberts @seabreezelp @cnbcfastmoney @HalftimeReport @gnoble79 @KeithMcCullough @SamofAmerica @HedgeyeDJ @ptj_official
Bill Ackman@BillAckman

I am reaching out to the @X community for advice with the likely risk of sharing TMI. I have been sufficiently upset about the whole matter that I have lost sleep thinking about it and I am hoping that this post will enable me to get this matter off my chest. By way of background, I started a family office called TABLE about 15 years ago and hired a friend who had previously managed a family office, and years earlier, had been my personal accountant. She is someone that I trusted implicitly and consider to be a good person. The office started small, but over the last decade, the number of personnel and the cost of the office grew massively. The growth was entirely on the operational side as the investment team has remained tiny. While my investment portfolio grew substantially, the investments I had made were almost entirely passive and TABLE simply needed to account for them and meet capital calls as they came in. While TABLE purchased additional software and other systems that were supposed to improve productivity, the team kept increasing in size at a rapid rate, and the expenses continued to grow even faster. While I would periodically question the growing expenses and high staff turnover, I stayed uninvolved with the office other than a once-a-year meeting when I briefly reviewed the operations and the financials and determined bonus compensation for the President and the CFO. I spent no time with any of the other employees or the operations. The whole idea behind TABLE was that it would handle everything other than my day job so that I would have more time for my job and my family. Over the last six years, expenses ballooned even further, employee turnover accelerated, and I became concerned that all was not well at TABLE. It was time for me to take a look at what was going on. Nearly four years ago, I recruited my nephew who had recently graduated from Harvard and put him to work at Bremont, a British watchmaker, one of my only active personal investments to figure out the issues at the company and ultimately assist in executing a turnaround. He did a superb job. When he returned from the UK late last year after a few years at Bremont, I asked him to help me figure out what was going on with TABLE. When I explained to TABLE’s president what he would be doing, she became incredibly defensive, which naturally made me more concerned. My nephew went to work by first meeting with each employee to understand their roles at the company and to learn from them what ideas they had on how things could be improved. He got an earful. Our first step in helping to turn around TABLE was a reduction in force including the president and about a third of the team, retaining excellent talent that had been desperate for new leadership. Now here is where I need your advice. All but one of the employees who were terminated acted professionally and were gracious on the way out (excluding the president who had a notice period in her contract, is currently still being paid, and with whom I have not yet had a discussion). The highest compensated terminated employee other than the president, an in-house lawyer (let’s call her Ronda), told us that three months of severance was not enough and demanded two years’ severance despite having worked at the company for only two and one half years. When I learned of Ronda's request for severance, I offered to speak with her to understand what she was thinking, but she refused to do so. A few days ago, we received a threatening letter from a Silicon Valley law firm. In the letter, Ronda’s counsel suggests that her termination is part of longstanding issues of ‘harassment and gender discrimination’ – an interesting claim in light of the fact that Ronda was in charge of workplace compliance – and that her termination was due to: “unlawful, retaliatory, and harmful conduct directed towards her. Both [Ronda] and I [Ronda’s lawyer] have spoken with you about [Ronda’s] view of what a reasonable resolution would include given the circumstances. Thus far, TABLE has refused to provide any substantive response. This letter provides the last opportunity to reach a satisfactory agreement. If we cannot do so, [Ronda] will seek all appropriate relief in a court of competent jurisdiction.” The letter goes on to explain the basis for the “unsafe work environment” claim at TABLE: “In early 2026, Pershing Square’s founder Bill Ackman installed his nephew in an unidentified role at TABLE, Ackman’s family office. [His nephew]—whose only work experience had been for TABLE where he was seconded abroad for the last four years to a UK watch company held by Ackman—began appearing at TABLE’s offices and conducting interviews of employees without a clear explanation of his role or the purposes of these interviews. During this period, he made a series of inappropriate and genderbased [sic] comments to multiple employees that created an unsafe work environment. Among other things, [his nephew] made remarks about female employees’ ages (“Tell me you are nowhere near 40”), physical appearance (“Your body does not look like you have kids”), as well as intrusive questions about family planning and sexual orientation (“Who carried your son? Who will carry your next child?”). These incidents were reported to senior leadership at TABLE and Pershing Square. Rather than being addressed appropriately, the response from senior management reflected, at best, willful blindness to the inappropriateness of [his nephew]’s remarks and, at worst, tacit endorsement.” The above allegations about my nephew had previously been brought to my attention by TABLE’s president when they occurred. When I learned of them, I told the president that I would speak to him directly and encouraged her to arrange for him to get workplace sensitivity training. The president assured me that she would do so. When I spoke to my nephew, he explained what he actually had said and how his actual remarks had been received, not at all as alleged in the legal letter from Ronda’s counsel. I have also spoken to others at the lunch table who confirmed his description of the facts. In any case, he meant no harm, was simply trying to build rapport with other employees, and no one, as far as I understand, was offended. Ironically, Ronda claims in her legal letter that TABLE didn’t take HR compliance seriously, yet Ronda was in charge of HR compliance at TABLE and the person who gave my nephew his workplace sensitivity training after the alleged incidents. In any case, Ronda, as head of compliance, should have kept a record or raised an alarm if indeed there was pervasive harassment or other such problems at the company, and there is no evidence whatsoever that this is true. So why does Ronda believe she can get me to pay her nearly $2 million, i.e., two years of severance, nearly one year of severance for each of her years at the company? Well, here is where some more background would be helpful. Over the last two months, I have been consumed with a major family medical issue – one of my older daughters had a massive brain hemorrhage on February 5th and has since been making progress on her recovery – and I am in the midst of a major transaction for my company which I am executing from a hospital room office next to her . While the latter business matter is publicly known, the details of my daughter’s situation are only known to Ronda because of her role at our family office. Now, let’s get back to the subject at hand. Unfortunately, while New York and many other states have employment-at-will, there has emerged an industry of lawyers who make a living from bringing fake gender, race, LGBTQ and other discrimination employment claims in order to extract larger severance payments for terminated employees, and it needs to stop. The fake claim system succeeds because it costs little to have a lawyer send a threatening letter and nearly all of the lawyers in this field work on contingency so there is no or minimal cash cost to bring a claim. And inevitably, nearly 100% of these claims are settled because the public relations and legal costs of defending them exceed the dollar cost of the settlement. The claims are nearly always settled with a confidentiality agreement where the employee who asserts the fake claims remains anonymous and as a result, there is no reputational cost to bringing false claims. The consequences of this sleazy system (let’s call it ‘the System’) are the increased costs of doing business which is a tax on the economy and society. There are other more serious problems due to the System. Unfortunately, the existence of an industry of plaintiff firms and terminated employees willing to make these claims makes it riskier for companies to hire employees from a protected class, i.e., LGBTQ, seniors, women, people of color etc. because it is that much more reputationally damaging and expensive to be accused of racism, sexism, and/or intolerance for sexual diversity than for firing a white male as juries generally have less sympathy for white males. The System therefore increases the risk of discrimination rather than reducing it, and the people bringing these fake claims are thereby causing enormous harm to the other members of these protected classes. So what happened here? Ronda was vastly overpaid and overqualified for the job that she did at TABLE. She was paid $1.05 million plus benefits last year for her work which was largely comprised of filling out subscription agreements and overseeing an outside law firm on closing passive investments in funds and in private and venture stage companies, some compliance work, and managing the office move from one office to another. She had a very good gig as she was highly paid, only had to go into the office three days a week, and could work from anywhere during the summer. Once my nephew showed up and started to investigate what was going on, she likely concluded that there was a reasonable possibility she would be terminated, as her job was in the too-easy-and-to-good-to-be-true category. The problem was that she was not in a protected class due to her race, age or sexual identity so she had to construct the basis for a claim. While she is female and could in theory bring a gender-based discrimination claim, she reported to the president who is female and to whom she is very close, which makes it difficult for her to bring a harassment claim against her former boss. When my nephew complimented a TABLE employee at lunch about how young she looked – in response to saying she was going to her 40-year-old sister’s birthday party, he said ‘she must be your older sister’ – Ronda immediately reported it to our external HR lawyer. She thereby began building her case. The other problem for Ronda bringing a claim is that she was terminated alongside 30% of other TABLE employees as part of a restructuring so it is very difficult for her to say that she was targeted in her termination or was retaliated against. TABLE is now hiring an external fractional general counsel as that is all the company needs to process the relatively limited amount of legal work we do internally. In short, Ronda was eminently qualified and capable and did her job. She was just too much horsepower for what is largely an administrative legal role so she had to come up with something else to bring a claim. Now Ronda knew I was a good target and it was a good time to bring a claim against me. She also knew that I was under a lot of pressure because on March 4th when Ronda was terminated, my daughter had not yet emerged from consciousness, she was not yet breathing on her own, and my daughter and we were fighting for her life. I was and remain deeply engaged in her recovery while at the same time I was working on finishing the closing for the private placement round for my upcoming IPO. Ronda also knew that publicity about supposed gender discrimination and a “hostile and unsafe work environment” are not things that a CEO of a company about to go public wants to have released into the media. And she may have thought that the nearly $2 million she was asking for would be considered small in the context of the reputational damage a lawsuit could cause, regardless of the fact that two years of severance was an absurd amount for an employee who had only worked at TABLE for 30 months. She also likely considered that I wouldn’t want to embarrass my nephew by dragging him into the klieg lights when her claims emerged publicly. So, in summary, game theory would say that I would certainly settle this case, for why would I risk negative publicity at a time when I was preparing our company to go public and also risk embarrassing my nephew. Notably, she hired a Silicon Valley law firm, rather than a typical NY employment firm. This struck me as interesting as her husband works for one of the most prominent Silicon Valley venture firms whose CEO, I am sure, has no tolerance for these kinds of fake claims that sadly many venture-backed companies also have to deal with. I mention this as I suspect her husband likely has been working with her on the strategy for squeezing me as, in addition to being a computer scientist, he is a game theorist. My only advice for him is to understand more about your opponent before you launch your first move. All of the above said, gender, race, LGBTQ and other such discrimination is a real thing. Many people have been harmed and deserve compensation for this discrimination, and these companies and individuals should be punished for engaging in such behavior. Which brings me to the advice I am seeking from the X community. I am not planning to follow the typical path and settle this ‘claim.’ Rather, I am going to fight this nonsense to the end of the earth in the hope that it inspires other CEOs to do the same so we shut down this despicable behavior that is a large tax on society, employment, and the economy and contributes to workplace discrimination rather than reducing it. Do you agree or disagree that this is the right approach?

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I'vebeeninthisbusinessalongtime
@BillAckman @X Been in a similar situation (my scale of wealth much smaller but the stakes were literally freedom)-having a number higher than the number of those around you; well that number is the modern day bounty on your head-jealousy and greed make for a powerful mistress. fight like hell
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Bill Ackman
Bill Ackman@BillAckman·
I am reaching out to the @X community for advice with the likely risk of sharing TMI. I have been sufficiently upset about the whole matter that I have lost sleep thinking about it and I am hoping that this post will enable me to get this matter off my chest. By way of background, I started a family office called TABLE about 15 years ago and hired a friend who had previously managed a family office, and years earlier, had been my personal accountant. She is someone that I trusted implicitly and consider to be a good person. The office started small, but over the last decade, the number of personnel and the cost of the office grew massively. The growth was entirely on the operational side as the investment team has remained tiny. While my investment portfolio grew substantially, the investments I had made were almost entirely passive and TABLE simply needed to account for them and meet capital calls as they came in. While TABLE purchased additional software and other systems that were supposed to improve productivity, the team kept increasing in size at a rapid rate, and the expenses continued to grow even faster. While I would periodically question the growing expenses and high staff turnover, I stayed uninvolved with the office other than a once-a-year meeting when I briefly reviewed the operations and the financials and determined bonus compensation for the President and the CFO. I spent no time with any of the other employees or the operations. The whole idea behind TABLE was that it would handle everything other than my day job so that I would have more time for my job and my family. Over the last six years, expenses ballooned even further, employee turnover accelerated, and I became concerned that all was not well at TABLE. It was time for me to take a look at what was going on. Nearly four years ago, I recruited my nephew who had recently graduated from Harvard and put him to work at Bremont, a British watchmaker, one of my only active personal investments to figure out the issues at the company and ultimately assist in executing a turnaround. He did a superb job. When he returned from the UK late last year after a few years at Bremont, I asked him to help me figure out what was going on with TABLE. When I explained to TABLE’s president what he would be doing, she became incredibly defensive, which naturally made me more concerned. My nephew went to work by first meeting with each employee to understand their roles at the company and to learn from them what ideas they had on how things could be improved. He got an earful. Our first step in helping to turn around TABLE was a reduction in force including the president and about a third of the team, retaining excellent talent that had been desperate for new leadership. Now here is where I need your advice. All but one of the employees who were terminated acted professionally and were gracious on the way out (excluding the president who had a notice period in her contract, is currently still being paid, and with whom I have not yet had a discussion). The highest compensated terminated employee other than the president, an in-house lawyer (let’s call her Ronda), told us that three months of severance was not enough and demanded two years’ severance despite having worked at the company for only two and one half years. When I learned of Ronda's request for severance, I offered to speak with her to understand what she was thinking, but she refused to do so. A few days ago, we received a threatening letter from a Silicon Valley law firm. In the letter, Ronda’s counsel suggests that her termination is part of longstanding issues of ‘harassment and gender discrimination’ – an interesting claim in light of the fact that Ronda was in charge of workplace compliance – and that her termination was due to: “unlawful, retaliatory, and harmful conduct directed towards her. Both [Ronda] and I [Ronda’s lawyer] have spoken with you about [Ronda’s] view of what a reasonable resolution would include given the circumstances. Thus far, TABLE has refused to provide any substantive response. This letter provides the last opportunity to reach a satisfactory agreement. If we cannot do so, [Ronda] will seek all appropriate relief in a court of competent jurisdiction.” The letter goes on to explain the basis for the “unsafe work environment” claim at TABLE: “In early 2026, Pershing Square’s founder Bill Ackman installed his nephew in an unidentified role at TABLE, Ackman’s family office. [His nephew]—whose only work experience had been for TABLE where he was seconded abroad for the last four years to a UK watch company held by Ackman—began appearing at TABLE’s offices and conducting interviews of employees without a clear explanation of his role or the purposes of these interviews. During this period, he made a series of inappropriate and genderbased [sic] comments to multiple employees that created an unsafe work environment. Among other things, [his nephew] made remarks about female employees’ ages (“Tell me you are nowhere near 40”), physical appearance (“Your body does not look like you have kids”), as well as intrusive questions about family planning and sexual orientation (“Who carried your son? Who will carry your next child?”). These incidents were reported to senior leadership at TABLE and Pershing Square. Rather than being addressed appropriately, the response from senior management reflected, at best, willful blindness to the inappropriateness of [his nephew]’s remarks and, at worst, tacit endorsement.” The above allegations about my nephew had previously been brought to my attention by TABLE’s president when they occurred. When I learned of them, I told the president that I would speak to him directly and encouraged her to arrange for him to get workplace sensitivity training. The president assured me that she would do so. When I spoke to my nephew, he explained what he actually had said and how his actual remarks had been received, not at all as alleged in the legal letter from Ronda’s counsel. I have also spoken to others at the lunch table who confirmed his description of the facts. In any case, he meant no harm, was simply trying to build rapport with other employees, and no one, as far as I understand, was offended. Ironically, Ronda claims in her legal letter that TABLE didn’t take HR compliance seriously, yet Ronda was in charge of HR compliance at TABLE and the person who gave my nephew his workplace sensitivity training after the alleged incidents. In any case, Ronda, as head of compliance, should have kept a record or raised an alarm if indeed there was pervasive harassment or other such problems at the company, and there is no evidence whatsoever that this is true. So why does Ronda believe she can get me to pay her nearly $2 million, i.e., two years of severance, nearly one year of severance for each of her years at the company? Well, here is where some more background would be helpful. Over the last two months, I have been consumed with a major family medical issue – one of my older daughters had a massive brain hemorrhage on February 5th and has since been making progress on her recovery – and I am in the midst of a major transaction for my company which I am executing from a hospital room office next to her . While the latter business matter is publicly known, the details of my daughter’s situation are only known to Ronda because of her role at our family office. Now, let’s get back to the subject at hand. Unfortunately, while New York and many other states have employment-at-will, there has emerged an industry of lawyers who make a living from bringing fake gender, race, LGBTQ and other discrimination employment claims in order to extract larger severance payments for terminated employees, and it needs to stop. The fake claim system succeeds because it costs little to have a lawyer send a threatening letter and nearly all of the lawyers in this field work on contingency so there is no or minimal cash cost to bring a claim. And inevitably, nearly 100% of these claims are settled because the public relations and legal costs of defending them exceed the dollar cost of the settlement. The claims are nearly always settled with a confidentiality agreement where the employee who asserts the fake claims remains anonymous and as a result, there is no reputational cost to bringing false claims. The consequences of this sleazy system (let’s call it ‘the System’) are the increased costs of doing business which is a tax on the economy and society. There are other more serious problems due to the System. Unfortunately, the existence of an industry of plaintiff firms and terminated employees willing to make these claims makes it riskier for companies to hire employees from a protected class, i.e., LGBTQ, seniors, women, people of color etc. because it is that much more reputationally damaging and expensive to be accused of racism, sexism, and/or intolerance for sexual diversity than for firing a white male as juries generally have less sympathy for white males. The System therefore increases the risk of discrimination rather than reducing it, and the people bringing these fake claims are thereby causing enormous harm to the other members of these protected classes. So what happened here? Ronda was vastly overpaid and overqualified for the job that she did at TABLE. She was paid $1.05 million plus benefits last year for her work which was largely comprised of filling out subscription agreements and overseeing an outside law firm on closing passive investments in funds and in private and venture stage companies, some compliance work, and managing the office move from one office to another. She had a very good gig as she was highly paid, only had to go into the office three days a week, and could work from anywhere during the summer. Once my nephew showed up and started to investigate what was going on, she likely concluded that there was a reasonable possibility she would be terminated, as her job was in the too-easy-and-to-good-to-be-true category. The problem was that she was not in a protected class due to her race, age or sexual identity so she had to construct the basis for a claim. While she is female and could in theory bring a gender-based discrimination claim, she reported to the president who is female and to whom she is very close, which makes it difficult for her to bring a harassment claim against her former boss. When my nephew complimented a TABLE employee at lunch about how young she looked – in response to saying she was going to her 40-year-old sister’s birthday party, he said ‘she must be your older sister’ – Ronda immediately reported it to our external HR lawyer. She thereby began building her case. The other problem for Ronda bringing a claim is that she was terminated alongside 30% of other TABLE employees as part of a restructuring so it is very difficult for her to say that she was targeted in her termination or was retaliated against. TABLE is now hiring an external fractional general counsel as that is all the company needs to process the relatively limited amount of legal work we do internally. In short, Ronda was eminently qualified and capable and did her job. She was just too much horsepower for what is largely an administrative legal role so she had to come up with something else to bring a claim. Now Ronda knew I was a good target and it was a good time to bring a claim against me. She also knew that I was under a lot of pressure because on March 4th when Ronda was terminated, my daughter had not yet emerged from consciousness, she was not yet breathing on her own, and my daughter and we were fighting for her life. I was and remain deeply engaged in her recovery while at the same time I was working on finishing the closing for the private placement round for my upcoming IPO. Ronda also knew that publicity about supposed gender discrimination and a “hostile and unsafe work environment” are not things that a CEO of a company about to go public wants to have released into the media. And she may have thought that the nearly $2 million she was asking for would be considered small in the context of the reputational damage a lawsuit could cause, regardless of the fact that two years of severance was an absurd amount for an employee who had only worked at TABLE for 30 months. She also likely considered that I wouldn’t want to embarrass my nephew by dragging him into the klieg lights when her claims emerged publicly. So, in summary, game theory would say that I would certainly settle this case, for why would I risk negative publicity at a time when I was preparing our company to go public and also risk embarrassing my nephew. Notably, she hired a Silicon Valley law firm, rather than a typical NY employment firm. This struck me as interesting as her husband works for one of the most prominent Silicon Valley venture firms whose CEO, I am sure, has no tolerance for these kinds of fake claims that sadly many venture-backed companies also have to deal with. I mention this as I suspect her husband likely has been working with her on the strategy for squeezing me as, in addition to being a computer scientist, he is a game theorist. My only advice for him is to understand more about your opponent before you launch your first move. All of the above said, gender, race, LGBTQ and other such discrimination is a real thing. Many people have been harmed and deserve compensation for this discrimination, and these companies and individuals should be punished for engaging in such behavior. Which brings me to the advice I am seeking from the X community. I am not planning to follow the typical path and settle this ‘claim.’ Rather, I am going to fight this nonsense to the end of the earth in the hope that it inspires other CEOs to do the same so we shut down this despicable behavior that is a large tax on society, employment, and the economy and contributes to workplace discrimination rather than reducing it. Do you agree or disagree that this is the right approach?
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@anonguy522144 @BobCarpenterHQ @CyclesFan 1)2 Good take-so that historical pressure you mention, we've seen it play out just recently -not a conspiracy theory guy but when metals are moving 27% in a day-that just reeks of coordination and collusion. 54-57 could certainly be violated, but I have a hard time imagining
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anonguy
anonguy@anonguy522144·
@privatequity73 @BobCarpenterHQ @CyclesFan Makes sense, but the lag may be simply to the historical downward pressure on silver, with a breakout finally happening, hard to think it'll just push back down to pre-money printing levels of old, metals are a hedge against breaking currencies, long term it's a hold
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CyclesFan
CyclesFan@CyclesFan·
$Silver monthly - The next 3.5 years will be very frustrating for silver bugs. They will keep waiting in vain for $250-$500. Instead they're going to wake up in November 2029, the next 7 year cycle low, to their favorite metal trading at $30, silver's last 7 year cycle high.
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Millennium Family Office
Millennium Family Office@makatihedgefund·
@CyclesFan Stick with something that can be backtested and works. Elliot Wave and Cycles are one of the biggest excuses people in this industry use to make it hard to explain themselves so people cannot question their logic. Try pitching this nonsense to a hedge fund manager
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CyclesFan
CyclesFan@CyclesFan·
$Gold monthly - TSI turned down from its highest level ever and is about to have a bearish crossover. If the current 7 year cycle equals the duration of the 7YC in 2008-2015, the next 7YCL will occur in November 2029. Possible retest of the last 7YCH at 2100, minimal target 2800.
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@BobCarpenterHQ @CyclesFan @anonguy522144 I dunno silver went up for 4, no 5 months during covid-and then came back. Then it went up 2024-early 2026-so that's 25 months. Very similar to the 2009-2011Q-1 except that was 27 months. I am longer term bullish-but certainly willing to entertain a more protracted move.
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Bob Carpenter
Bob Carpenter@BobCarpenterHQ·
Your name is CyclesFan and you don’t even understand cycles. Lmao. Gold based for 10 years and usually when these bases occur, gold usually expands 8x from its low. It’s low was 1100. Which means we are headed for 9 or 10k this cycle at the least. That would bring gold to 250-500 an ounce depending on the GSR. Silver doesn’t usually go up for 4 months and then suddenly collapse and that’s the end of the silver market. These things play out over years. See you at 10k this year.
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@AlgoIndexCom @StuOnGold @McClellanOsc But yes-been on the wrong side of more of those than I care to remember. Got a little brave just a little bit early last week-booked some put profits got pretty long and took a nice sized hit. Still in the trade and a still a little "shook up" as the kids say these days
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AlgoIndex
AlgoIndex@AlgoIndexCom·
@privatequity73 @StuOnGold @McClellanOsc Waking up to a 2% gap against you with leverage on is genuinely one of the worst feelings in trading. That March selloff shook out so many longs who had the right thesis but wrong timing. Did you end up holding through or cutting?
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Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan@McClellanOsc·
This is a chart I shared this week in my Daily Edition, noting once again that dates of full moons tend to mark turning points or acceleration points for gold prices. I once tried years ago to disprove this point, and I failed. It is real. But figuring out in advance exactly how a future full moon will manifest this behavior is something I have not figured out how to do.
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@AlgoIndexCom @StuOnGold @McClellanOsc 2/3 Compliance was not aware that trade was placed based on astroharmonics I got from some dude on a podcast-ended up getting shaken out circa July 4th 2009 (4 months later) on a pullback-obviously we didn't know at the time the bottom was in-so the 10 day was my guide to exit
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@AlgoIndexCom @StuOnGold @McClellanOsc 1/2 Entry I'm referencing was long position on QLD @ 676 on spx futures March 6th, 2009 circa 130 pm and bought all the way to the bell that day-first w/discretionary accounts in my book-and then working the phones-660 was support I got from the astro/moon guy. Needless to say
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@StuOnGold @McClellanOsc 2 No sleep days running as I'd gotten long and levered 676 spx on 3/6-"support" was underneath-allegedly-Woke up Tuesday, 3/10 to the futures all gapping away 2+%. Memorable was the sentiment that weekend-told people I'd bought us stocks w/their money-they thought I'd cracked up
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Stuart A. Brown
Stuart A. Brown@StuOnGold·
Tom, financial astrology is more complex than analyzing Full Moons. Suggestion, check out the research from Raymond Marriman at MMA with over fifty years of an outstanding track record. Our trading performance has been markedly enhanced by following Ray's research. mmacycles.com/?srsltid=AfmBO…
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@StuOnGold @McClellanOsc 1/2 During the GFC got my first exposure. My guy had two huge sets of dates he called out weeks/months in advance. October 6-10, '08 (turned out to be the Fall crash week -19%) and March 4-8 '09. Intraday low was put in Friday 3/6 @ 666 futures-closing low Monday 3/9.
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@RakeshA37752961 @badcharts1 He's using monthly or quarterly closing numbers-quarterly-tends to smooth price out substantially. And in this case (I'm no silver pro)-Patrick maybe outsmarting himself-that said big fan of his simultaneous lack of ego-courage of conviction to update his call publicly/quickly
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Rakesh Arora
Rakesh Arora@RakeshA37752961·
@badcharts1 Patrick, the chart does not show 120$high..or am I missing something?
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Patrick Karim
Patrick Karim@badcharts1·
Please be mindful of this historical silver chart when tempted to jump in a trade because of fomo. Don't get hurt, stay safe using charts.
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Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈
Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈@cantonmeow·
If the market is truly going through a bottoming process on higher time frame and if we have a massive bull market coming once it's done. I'm going to thank @chrono_chartist for turning me on with the whole Copper/Gold ratio stuff that brings confluence with other things I see.
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Mike McGlone
Mike McGlone@mikemcglone11·
Gold Could Languish for Years Under $5,000 - February may have marked the best opportunity to sell gold in about half a century. The metal stretched to its highest-ever vs. the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index and its greatest premium to its 60-month moving average since 1980. My takeaway is that gold's parabolic 2025 rally -- the best year since 1979 -- was prescient of the Iran war, and the 2026 high may mirror 1980's. Full report on the Bloomberg here: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/t… {BI COMD} #gold #stockmarket @BBGIntelligence
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@cin365x @CyclesFan Am assuming you are speaking of exhaustion in the bearish intermediate term trend that's been decisively repelled multiple times-at levels well above lower, much stronger support. If buyers step in front of 60 like that-think about what they will look like at 55 & 50-if even
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Crypto Invest Now
Crypto Invest Now@cin365x·
My technical analysis for this chart: 1) Price has entered a strong expansion phase following a prolonged accumulation period. 2) Elevated volume suggests heightened participation near current levels. 3) Such conditions often precede increased volatility and potential trend exhaustion signals.
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CyclesFan
CyclesFan@CyclesFan·
$SLV - The monthly volume in January was the highest volume ever. Such volume expansions happen only at major tops. After every major top silver declines into the next 7 year cycle low. The next 7YCL is due in late 2029. I bet Karim or Savage never told you about it. Have they?
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@garysavage1 @CyclesFan Savage spot on as always- half century patterns do not mean revert after posting 18 weekly closes, 5 monthly closes, & 2 quarterly closes-well over the line. What they do is they come back, sometimes almost all the way back, sweep every last weak hand-and then go topside-
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Gary Savage
Gary Savage@garysavage1·
Still too early in the 8 year cycle for a final top. We need that gold:silver ratio down in the 20's before the declining phase of the 8 year cycle begins. Also a breakout from a 45 year base doesn't end in 2 months. We are cleansing the extreme bullish sentiment and building the fuel for the next leg up. There is more to calling a top than cherry picking one sign.
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@BenKizemchuk 2 of 3 2022 was the leg 2 down of that bear market, after some serious rallying (very similar to this) and 2025 was 2 days after the intra-day low of that bear. This was a good post-so the take-away is short pops w/put spread expirations 3-4 weeks out and buy calls 8weeks on dip
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Ben Kizemchuk
Ben Kizemchuk@BenKizemchuk·
SPX rallied 2.9% today. This marks the first time in 90 trading days that SPX finished at least 2.85% above the prior close. Historically, these outsized upside shocks have tended to precede higher volatility rather than sustained momentum. Looking back to 2006, similar occurrences have generally been followed by choppier price action and weaker risk‑adjusted returns over the subsequent one to two weeks. What stands out in the data: 1) Near term returns skew negative. Average performance is negative across every horizon from 1 to 10 days, indicating poor follow through after the initial surge. 2) Weakness tends to deepen with time. Drawdowns are modest early but deteriorate meaningfully after Day 4, with the Days 6-8 window showing the worst combination of win rate and average return. 3) Volatility increases with a lag. The largest downside outcomes do not occur immediately; historical worst‑cases widen from single digit declines early on to roughly ‑20% or more within two weeks. 4) Upside tails are narrow. Strong positive follow through beyond one week is rare and largely driven by a single historical episode. 5) Even at horizons where outcomes are positive roughly 50% of the time, average returns remain firmly negative, implying losses have historically outweighed gains. Bottom line: Large upside shock days have tended to mark inflection points within downtrends rather than new trend accelerations. Price action becomes choppier and risk skews to the downside. History argues for expecting higher volatility and poorer risk-adjusted returns, not a smooth continuation higher.
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@BenKizemchuk 1 of 2 Those trading the last 4-5 decades remember the one in 2007 was the day of the surprise 50bp rate cut-I bought the 10% pullback at 100pm and was given a huge gap gift. 2018 was the fed engineered bottom of Q4 "bear". 2020 preceded the three most dire weeks of covid sell
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@CyclesFan @brian95123 He's been right a lot since I stumbled across him a year ago-and there is this little debt overhang worldwide. And a seeming institutional level of ineptitude intrinsic to the political class in dealing w/it. Throw in stock markets that are long in the tooth..not a bad trade
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CyclesFan
CyclesFan@CyclesFan·
$Silver - Blow off moves in the past ended with a return to the origin of the blow off. In 1980 it was to the April 1978 low at 4.90. In 2011 it was to the February 2010 low at 14.65. This time the origin of the blow off was the April 2025 low at 28.31. That's the target by 2030.
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