A5 (@probablythenuts) - Twitter Profili | Zamantika Mersobahis Locabet

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Dmitrii Kovanikov@ChShersh·1d

Modern C++ is so functional that you can solve LeetCode Medium in 3 lines of code. I can't believe FP is still winning in the era of AI.

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A5@probablythenuts·1d

@CarOnPolymarket Lmao "fixed this major issue in under a week". Ghost fills have been a thing for months, and only recently when it made the site unusable did they address it.

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Car@CarOnPolymarket·1d

Polymarket was under attack by users exploiting a “ghost fill” bug, which effectively allowed them to reverse a transaction before it was finalized. This could be done by: > revoking allowance > transferring funds > changing the nonce > cancelling the order Polymarket fixed this major issue in less than a week. At first, the issue was minor, with only a few users abusing it to troll others by fake-filling orders. More recently, however, it was exploited to abuse the liquidity provider program. Users could place large orders in the order book to farm liquidity rewards without taking on any real risk, because they would just cancel the fill before it was fully executed. Polymarket had to completely change the underlying structure of the platform to fix this ghost fill bug. This not only fixed the ghost fill issue, but also should give them more flexibility to handle similar problems in the future. V2 launch was just a week ago btw

Josh@devjoshstevens

The release everyone was waiting for is now live. Ghost fills dropped from a peak of 30% to 0.17% with the rollout, and will continue trending toward 0% throughout the day. We know this issue was hurting everyone's experience and we're truly sorry for that but it should now be night and day. This was a significant core protocol change and we're incredibly proud of the whole team for executing it. We'll keep improving our systems, step by step, until we're the best exchange in the world.

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A5@probablythenuts·3d

@mittal_rahil I mean even if you get firms to provide direct index liquidity, you'll still be constrained by the underlying markets your indices derive their price from. A derivative having more liquidity than the underlying creates perverse incentives.

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Rahil Mittal@mittal_rahil·3d

@probablythenuts All valid questions! My edge comes from my execution/research API, and I am in a position to strike partnerships with some prop trading firms to provide liquidity on my platform. Also, I (with my good friend claude) am building a sophisticated rollover engine to curate indices

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Rahil Mittal@mittal_rahil·4d

i'm trading two top-tier quant internships and my UIUC stats and CS degree to go all in on this. i'm building the bridge between institutional money and prediction markets. think vanguard for polymarket/kalshi. and an (extensive) execution layer API. imagine trading geopolitical instability like an index fund. spoken to wealth mgmt funds, prop trading firms, and excited retail traders.. all of them are asking for this. if any VC's or cracked builders wanna know more, hit my DMs.

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A5@probablythenuts·3d

@mittal_rahil What's stopping me from vibecoding my own index fund wrapper? (would not be very hard) Is the value creation going to come from curated index funds or something? Asking these questions genuinely.

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A5@probablythenuts·3d

@mittal_rahil So you're essentially building an API wrapper on Kalshi (only legal US venue with any real volume; often not great outside sports) that will be bottlenecked by Kalshi's liquidity, execution, fees, etc. What value will you product be creating?

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Sports Projections@Sports__Proj·4d

@PredMTrader

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A5@probablythenuts·5d

They saw the Bloomberg article and said "how can we help the bots make even MORE money"

Mustafa@mustafap0ly

one tap trading is live on 5M & 15M crypto markets 😛 dm me with any feedback

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A5@probablythenuts·23 Nis

@bebeckhardt @Frosen @Frosen is right. Here is a more detailed explanation: x.com/probablythenut…

A5@probablythenuts

@nickdevor_ 1/🧵Let me explain why this is: Markets such as this one where exactly one outcome will be 'yes' are called "negative risk" markets. Polymarket has a feature in neg risk markets that lets you convert a set of 'no' shares into a complementary set of 'yes' shares.

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Brandon Beckhardt@bebeckhardt·23 Nis

@Frosen Why would so many people buy Yes on these totally improbable events on Polymarket compared to Kalshi?

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Brandon Beckhardt@bebeckhardt·23 Nis

Seems people are discovering what wash trading looks like

Nick Devor@nickdevor_

SCOOP: 70% of trading volume on Polymarket's 2028 presidential election market is on candidates with <1% chance of winning. $48 million has been traded on a LeBron James presidency, and only $9 million on Marco Rubio. $34 million on Kim Kardashian. There's a combined $41 million in trades on Elon Musk and Zohran Mamdani—both of whom, as non-native U.S. citizens, are ineligible for inauguration. The trend is reversed on Kalshi, where trading volume is concentrated among the front-runners.

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A5@probablythenuts·23 Nis

@EventWavesIO @nickdevor_ Read my reply: x.com/probablythenut…

A5@probablythenuts

@nickdevor_ 1/🧵Let me explain why this is: Markets such as this one where exactly one outcome will be 'yes' are called "negative risk" markets. Polymarket has a feature in neg risk markets that lets you convert a set of 'no' shares into a complementary set of 'yes' shares.

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eventwaves@EventWavesIO·22 Nis

@nickdevor_ There's no fundamental reason to buy either side. 'Yes' is dumb, but 'No' is a bad return Because of that, these trade a little like a meme-coin. Buy 30k shares at 1cent in the hope it pumps to 2cents on something silly

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@nickdevor_ docs.polymarket.com/advanced/neg-r…

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Nick Devor@nickdevor_·22 Nis

SCOOP: 70% of trading volume on Polymarket's 2028 presidential election market is on candidates with <1% chance of winning. $48 million has been traded on a LeBron James presidency, and only $9 million on Marco Rubio. $34 million on Kim Kardashian. There's a combined $41 million in trades on Elon Musk and Zohran Mamdani—both of whom, as non-native U.S. citizens, are ineligible for inauguration. The trend is reversed on Kalshi, where trading volume is concentrated among the front-runners.

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A5@probablythenuts·23 Nis

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A5@probablythenuts·23 Nis

@nickdevor_ 5/🧵Entering positions this way counts as volume for the obscure candidates and not the favorites. This ultimately results in more volume for these low prob candidates, even though what people are "really" betting on is generally the high prob candidates.

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A5@probablythenuts·23 Nis

@nickdevor_ 5/🧵Entering positions this way counts as volume for the obscure candidates and not the favorites. This ultimately results in more volume for these low prob candidates, even though what people are "really" betting on is generally the high prob candidates.

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A5@probablythenuts·8 Nis

@AaronWise5147 @TheSpeculator0 Kalshi has nothing to do with crypto

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Aaron Wise@AaronWise5147·8 Nis

@TheSpeculator0 As usual in ‘crypto’ they are not just an exchange but also operating many other roles that are usually segregated, in this case an OTC dealer.

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