Psilobit

@ChristoD_Synan @btcfeen @dampedspring There’s a big difference between a loan and perpetual preferred equity. There is no repayment of principal for the latter.

@btcfeen @dampedspring @psilobit So it's like taking out a loan to buy Bitcoin. And that always goes great, am right?

The capital structure of $MSTR costs just under $1BN to fund every year. The assets of the company earn zero yield. The carry is paid by issuance.

@hillery_dan More like $1b+ per week now. For a 7-day week, that’s about 2,000/day (this week might end up being 3,000 BTC/day). Per TradingView, 30d volume on BTC is about 4k/day. What happens if OTC supply drains? What happens if MSTR has no option but to buy on the open market?

Do you understand that MSTR is buying 500MM of Bitcoin every week right now?

Does fundamentally flawed mean it won’t work? Most companies issue shares to pay for opex or depreciating assets. I’m not aware of any that do what MSTR is doing (in effect, call it 12% for interest expense, and 88% into a non-depreciating asset with the expectation that it appreciates on the balance sheet in perpetuity). It’s totally against the grain and a rethinking around a BTC standard when we tend to think in fiat terms. MSTR has built a balance sheet that is virtually impossible to replicate at present market value, due to the supply-demand imbalances such a large purchase would drive. Steelmanning the BTC thesis, what could 740k out of 21M BTC be worth in 10, 50, 100 years? What happens as there is more and more global currency debasement, and what assets are objectively harder than BTC? As I said before, no guarantees - but if the thesis plays out (and I doubt you or any other financially competent person would go all-in on a perpetual short of BTC) - what is MSTR’s conceivable upside?

MSTR and STRC are dependant on liquidity to purchase BTC and pay dividends - while there is of course no guarantee of this continuing, the securities are engineered to be liquid so the ATM facilities can be deployed. For example, STRC is one of, if not the most liquid preferred equity out there, and is also optionable and trades on Robinhood. BTC being a defined-supply commodity with an unalterable issuance schedule is what makes this different. Saylor is targeting a $300T fixed income market by offering well-above market yield, tax-deferred, with 50+ years of balance sheet runway - an infinitely scalable credit offering on an underlying commodity with a $1.5T market cap. As dollars migrate from lower-yielding fixed income pools into STRC, those funds will be used to purchase and effectively retire the underlying commodity that has a market cap of 1/200 of the TAM. BTC is unique because of its history, security, etc - it’s not intellectually honest to compare it to a centralized memecoin or any other crypto with a management team. No guarantees that Saylor’s play will work, but there is more to it than meets the eye. Ultimately, it depends on 1) BTC not going to zero, 2) further seasoning while never missing a dividend payment to build more and more history, and 3) capital migrating to higher yields.

@realpeteyb123 They buy OTC. If that supply gets exhausted, shorts will get lit on fire.

HOLY SHIT! I’m shocked, Bitcoin is still down here with these daily buys. Either it’s paper bitcoin (it isn’t) or we are about to launch to $150k within days once the run begins. Sellers must be exhausted. This is beyond ridiculously bullish.

@phongle @TimKotzman @CJ_Bitcoin I disagree with this. What makes BTC so unique is that it offers perpetual benefit. Surely this doesn’t mean MSTR will sell its BTC when “everyone agrees” that it’s a great investment? Defined supply with no way to increase production is a game-changer.

"When everyone agrees and is on board with bitcoin being a great investment, then it is no longer a great investment, so all of us are greatful that right now there are a lot of critics of bitcoin." @CJ_Bitcoin

@shanaka86 Did you attend the funeral? What a joke.

JANUARY 15: THE $9 BILLION PURGE MicroStrategy owns 649,870 Bitcoin. Worth $56.7 billion. That’s 77% of everything they have. On January 15, 2026 MSCI kicks them out of every major stock index. Not maybe. Not probably. It’s already decided. Here’s what happens next: $9 billion of forced selling hits the market within 72 hours. Pension funds. Index trackers. ETFs. They don’t get to choose. The algorithm forces them to sell. Every single share. The company’s premium is already gone. It used to trade 2-3x above its Bitcoin value. Now? 1.11x. The lowest since 2020. The magic died before the announcement even drops. Wall Street just drew a line: Bitcoin treasury companies aren’t stocks anymore. They’re funds. And funds don’t belong in the S&P 500 or Russell indexes. This matters because Michael Saylor built a machine that let regular investors buy Bitcoin through their brokerage accounts. It worked for five years. That machine breaks permanently in 23 days. The reflexivity loop that powered everything: raise money from stocks, buy Bitcoin, stock price goes up, raise more money, buy more Bitcoin. That cycle is dead. When you trade at net asset value, you can’t raise premium capital anymore. JPMorgan’s November 20 research note confirmed it. The math doesn’t work anymore. The company that proved corporations could hold Bitcoin also proved the market will never let them disguise it as equity. What comes after: MicroStrategy / Strategy Inc becomes a closed-end Bitcoin fund trading at a 10-20% discount. Forever. Just like Grayscale before spot ETFs existed. Liquidity collapses 60%. Volume disappears. BlackRock wins. Every dollar that would have gone into MicroStrategy flows into Bitcoin ETFs instead. The corporate Bitcoin era does not end with regulation or hacks or crashes. It ends with index methodology. The most boring document in finance just rewrote the entire playbook. The funeral is 15th January 2026! Read the deep dive article here - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@RhoRider You guys, come on…he’s buying OTC. This is known. @grok it.

I can’t wait for the day when the inevitable $MSTR investor lawsuit discovery finally reveals Saylor’s process for executing the horrible avg weekly $BTC buys is some absurdly illegal self-dealing scheme

@FinFreedom414 MSTR buys OTC…if that supply gets drained, BTC will unlock

This price Bitcoin price action combined with $MSTR’s massive accumulation bid raises some massive red flags for me in the short term.

@imacSportsnet I think they just went lower 😞

After losing to Sabres, the only way Canucks can go any lower is if the Earth cracks open and swallows them. Max Sasson: “I know it's getting old saying it, but we (frickin’) dominate them… and nothing's going in. So it's frustrating.” sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/ca…

@andrepontual @CryptoAgent_ @CredibleCrypto Sorry - try this: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@psilobit @CryptoAgent_ @CredibleCrypto The doc is closed-access

Bitcoin dominance will eventually break down towards the end of the cycle, and this is when the next major alt season will begin showing signs of life. At some point, as Bitcoin begins hitting the final stages of its parabolic advance/blow off top, we may see a final pop in dominance before a complete meltdown to sub 35% as we experience a full blown alt season the likes of which we haven't seen since 2017. I've covered this idea extensively over the years in various Youtube vids and interviews, but the above is just a reminder. At the end of the day, the cycle ends after Bitcoin tops, after alts go bananas, and after Bitcoin dominance ends up somewhere back below 35% imo.

@CryptoAgent_ @CredibleCrypto This also assumes zero share issuances (I.e. all dividends must be paid through sale of BTC), which is unreasonably conservative

@CryptoAgent_ @CredibleCrypto Here’s a simple model projecting what it would look like for MSTR’s obligations if BTC cratered to $40k tomorrow and only went up 5% annually thereafter: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@LawrenceLepard @dotkrueger Thoughts on waiting things out MSTR to get traction, and THEN (in a few months) sell the $700 call for closer to your cost of the $210? I’ve used that strategy in the past - amazing trade when it works out, and the setup is pretty good for this one, and there’s plenty of time

Asymmetric trade of the day. MSTR, call spread. Jan. 2028. just bought the $210 strike for $70.97, sold the $700 for $19.97. Net, $51.00. 9.6x payout at top. Up 51% on the stock to break even. 2 years to see the cards. $150,000 Btc and 1.7 mNav takes you home. @dotkrueger

@cantonmeow There are still 2.3 million BTC on exchange. I’m about as bullish as one could get long-term, but “all-time low” is not meaningful when it’s only declined about 25% from Jan 2023. We have a responsibility to be thoughtful about narratives.

Imagine if price follows supply-demand dynamics rather than controlled by exchanges and derivatives. #Bitcoin #Ethereum

@dampedspring @Z06Z07 @Strategy @saylor What they said on the call is that they have negative E&P that they are paying the distributions from, allowing them to tax-categorize as ROC.

@Z06Z07 @Strategy @saylor Return of Capital is because existing investors are being paid with new issue proceeds in this case. ROC is fine if paid via asset sales. But done with new issue proceeds defines Ponzi scheme

About 94K viewers listening to @Strategy @saylor Digital Credit section was excellent.

@James4049082728 @JoshMandell6 @laurashin I would convert mine to monetize MSTR covered calls in the future

@JoshMandell6 @dmitryuduman @laurashin Why won't they convert?

People love to say things like, "it's hard to explain ______ to normies". If "normies" refers to everyone you've tried to explain it to who isn't already a believer, then it might mean you haven't explained it well enough. @laurashin asked a very reasonable question about selling Bitcoin. The pied piper of "never sell your bitcoin" could only muster the reply, "it's going up forever, Laura". If that makes sense to you, you're stuck in the matrix. I think there should be a target to take some profits and set aside a few quarters worth of dividend payments. Ask me the same question and I will say "444k". How do I explain that? I think that $1,000 will be a magnet price for $MSTR. At that point, STRK sales will likely be ramping up. It's embedded call option struck at $1,000 is noteworthy and will lead to hedging activity vis-a-vis selling MSTR. Also, for a long time, the highest strike call option on MSTR was $1080 so there will be a Max Pain expiration around $1,000. Of further note is the fact that $444,000 Bitcoin equates to an mNAV roughly equal to 1 at this point when MSTR begins to feel the gravitational pull of these forces. OG Bitcoiners who have been waiting for a moment to sell and gain access to listed common stock in MSTR at a NAV of 1 may begin putting their coin out there and suddenly the demand for MSTR at NAV and the supply of MSTR at $1,000 will intersect and form a magical cross with the demand for Bitcoin and the supply of Bitcoin. OG bitcoiners across the land will speak with their wallets, "There IS a second best, and it's NOT going up forever, Laura. It's going up to four four four!" Good Morning, Laura. I hope this message finds you well.

@saylor @strategy @shirishjajodia @_ChaitanyaJ Can you please put together a presentation to nonprofits explaining why they should move their treasuries to STRC? I am going to propose to a nonprofit I am helping that we move our reserves into STRC rather the low-yield “high savings” accounts they are currently in. A thoughtful presentation from you on this would be so helpful to these organizations and expand the market for your preferreds.

You can now find all four of our digital credit instruments on Robinhood. $STRC $STRD $STRF $STRK

This seems to suggest that the distributions are funded by underlying equity appreciation, but this is at least materially in part about capturing value by selling options. In these cases, options IV is a significant (and variable) factor. So I don’t think it is correct to declare that the underlying equities must increase by 95% over six months to sustain 9-10 cent weekly dividends with stable NAV. The cash generated from short options must also be considered.

📊 New Analysis: The truth behind $ULTY NAV decline and a smart approach to balance yield & capital for smooth performance: theboldux.substack.com/p/how-to-offse… The deep dive discusses: 🔵Why ULTY (and most high-yield funds) can’t sustain a stable long-term NAV 🔵How YieldMax could “preserve NAV” (but why they won’t) 🔵What investors could do to “preserve NAV” themselves #YieldMaxETFs #YieldMax $YMAX $MSTY #Dividends #IncomeETFs #PassiveIncome $SLTY $WPAY