Ulric

The Reserve Bank of Australia is softening up a market that doesn't want to hear the truth. Andrew Hauser was more candid in New York than the RBA is at home. "Inflation up, activity down": the central banker's nightmare. But the deeper problem goes unspoken. Macroeconomics has no unified theory for the ZIRP era (from GFC to COVID). Not "the theories failed", it's worse than that. We have fragments that partially fit the data ex post: savings gluts, the China shock, QE inflating assets without flowing into goods and services prices, expectations anchored until suddenly they weren't. None of it has cohered into something that generalised once the regime shifted in 2021. That matters now because the same patchwork thinking is shaping current policy. If the pre-GFC normal is reasserting itself (and bond markets are starting to lean that way) then 4.1% isn't restrictive. It may still be expansionary. We're not at neutral. We're not close. Which means more hikes just to get to neutral. Then more still to actually curb inflation. The RBA may suspect this. But in a domestic market where mortgage stress is a nightly news story, you don't say it plainly. You give a speech in New York about nightmares and let the bond market do the talking. The uncertainty is real: we still lack a coherent model for what 2008-2022 actually was. But uncertainty is not a reason to assume policy is already tight. If anything, it's a reason to assume the opposite. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

@bowtiedstocks K shaped economy

Hastings St cafes and restaurants full to the brim at absolute capacity today No signs of a downturn amongst the high end Noosa holiday makers Hope you got a good wheelbarrow™️

@samswoora Apparently another rule is to avoid black plastics for food bc it's often from recycled electronics and still has toxic flame retardants in it (Not something you want leeching into food)

I think avoiding plastic exposure in children is functionally impossible and its not really worth trying. Don’t boil them water in a plastic bag but past that idk man, plastic is in literally everything.

The worst part about this is that the 5% deposit scheme doesn’t apply just to new homes. This is supercharging the supply vs demand imbalance: - We don’t have enough homes already - We’re adding migrants quicker than we can build new homes - We’re helping migrants bid up the price of existing homes There is no way this can’t be seen as intentional inflationary policy.

What paralysis of intellect has us channelling wages to banks through the financialisation of shelter while remaining beholden to foreign powers for the basics of modern life? We export raw abundance, reimport finished dependence, and call it sophistication. We ship coal overseas, buy back the carbon as solar panels, and congratulate ourselves on moral progress. We have treated house prices as national success and productive capacity as an afterthought. We have built a system resilient neither to strategic rivalry nor to disruption in the Middle East. Australia has spent years confusing asset inflation with prosperity, financial engineering with statecraft, and imported complexity with sovereign capacity. We sell raw materials, buy back dependency, import people and call the margin prosperity. We congratulated ourselves for efficiency while dismantling redundancy, resilience and national competence. The class that calls itself the nation’s intelligence can inflate land, subsidise demand and recite targets, yet cannot secure fuel, rebuild industry or think beyond the next property cycle. And then comes the NDIS, handled with the usual implied moral vulgarity, as though a serious country must choose between caring for the vulnerable and maintaining a productive base. Social obligations can’t float above material reality . It must eventually rest on that reality . A country that hollows out energy, industry, logistics and housing will eventually discover that its promises exceed its capacity. Our aging demographics guarantee it You cant secure the vulnerable by dismantling the machinery that funds their support. The NDIS is threatened by the same order that hollowed out the real economy and then feigned surprise when the social contract became expensive. Donald Horne was right. Australia is a lucky country run by second-rate people. For a long time, distance, endowment and inertia concealed the fact. That cover is thinning. A nation that cannot tell the difference between wealth and extraction, between resilience and rhetoric, between civilisation and a housing bubble, will learn the lesson the hard way.

When I said get out of Europe before it's too late, this is what I meant. Germany is now locking down men ages 17-45 from leaving. The draft is next. They don't ask your permission to send you to die.

Things we tolerate in Australia that we probably shouldn’t: - international student visa puppy mill operators - infinity immigrants being imported to artificially juice GDP - ‘diversity is our strength’ catch cry unsupported by any basis or evidence other than ‘oh but what about the food’ - the taxpayer rort that is the NDIS in its current form - inept and incompetent politicians That’s just a few, I’m sure it could be a much longer list

This one is really easy to interpret. The majors have both made it worse. At some point, people become immune to the spin. And they start opening their mind to an alternative. Not on policy merit, but on distrust of the status quo.

@MyLordBebo Way to ration fuel by identity in an oil crisis? 🤷‍♂️

🇲🇽 "In Mexico, gas payments will now be exclusively digital." — Mexican President, Sheinbaum *what's the point in killing the CASH payments?

@ne24454166 @bowtiedstocks TipTop and Helgas are for the soft bourgeois lol I'd be a houso if there were any public housing 😅

@pud354 @bowtiedstocks That’s houso brtead. At least buy TipTop or Helgas

Based on our real rate of inflation and money creation This $20 loaf of bread from 6 months ago is now going for $30 Happy Easter - hope those eggs didn’t cost you too much !

Australia has plenty of gas, but most of it is in the Northwest Shelf, isolated from the populated east coast. The West-East Pipeline would unify the national market, connecting cheap WA gas to the expensive eastern states. A 2017 feasibility study estimated construction would take two years and cost $5.8 billion, and reduce east coast gas prices by $3/GJ - a benefit of over $2 billion per year! That’s narrow peacetime benefits only, ignoring the project’s strategic value and national resilience. If coupled with a gas-to-liquids plant in South Australia, it would underpin true liquid fuel security for a nation increasingly aware of its dependence on maritime trade.

Should we worry? Underwater Internet Cables

As I said, the 1st U.S. invasion of Iran is designed to fail. That will be the blood sacrifice (excuse) for the transition from a limited operations conflict to all out war against Iran.

Dangerous game, politics.

@David32375134 When the enlistment policy gets this desperate, I wonder if conscription isn't far behind...

How bad are the recruiting and retention numbers?

@LouiChristopher Interesting, need a larger sample size than 400 for a better statistical view though

Now who would have predicted the Y generation would move towards ONP?!

BREAKING: Effective April 20, 2026, the U.S. Military is increasing the maximum enlistment age from 34 to 42

@FinanceLancelot What ceasefire with Iran? Trump pulling bullshit out of his arse again 🙄 x.com/FirstSquawk/st…

BREAKING: Oil falls to $88 after reports the U.S. is seeking a one-month ceasefire with Iran

@AvidCommentator Timing on this couldn't be worse

"Australia's largest ammonia plant will be shut for two months to repair damage caused by a power outage, amidst a global supply crunch for the vital fertiliser and explosives ingredient." We have a problem. boilingcold.com.au/glitch-shuts-a…