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There are tornado outbreaks, there are high risks, and then there's what happened on April 7, 2006.
The Storm Prediction Center draws an ultra-rare high risk – level 5 out of 5 – when there's a 30% chance of tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. (That seems confusing, but think about it this way... there's a 1 in 3 chance of a significant tornado hitting within a half hour drive of you.) That's pretty serious!
But on April 7, 2006, SPC forecasters broke out a never before-seen contour – the 60% tornado risk. There hasn't been a 60% tornado risk issued since... not even on April 27, 2011. @MatthewCappucci dug through the archives.
April 7 was the crescendo of a three-day outbreak from April 6-8; in all, 73 tornadoes would be confirmed across 13 states.
The update came at 3:13 p.m. CT, shortly before all hell broke loose. Here's a snippet from the outlook issued by Chris Broyles:
RAPID SUPERCELL INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE JUST AHEAD OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHING INTO THE AREA. AS THE JET PUNCHES EWD ACROSS NRN MS AND NRN AL...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED STRONG TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. AN OUTBREAK OF STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MS...NRN AL AND SCNTRL TN. AS THE STORMS TRACK ENEWD...SEVERAL LONG-LIVED VIOLENT TORNADOES NOW APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
In the end, two dozen tornadoes, mostly F0s and F1s, would hit northern Alabama. Interestingly, the strongest tornadoes – including a couple F3s – would track north of Nashville.
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