@RorschachStocks Yes, AI will be extremely unpopular to bailout when unemployment skyrockets and the Democratic congress wont bail them out.
English
riverwalk3
5.7K posts
riverwalk3
@r_walk7
Libertarian ideologically. For: lower taxes/regulations, higher interest rates. Don't tread on me culturally.
Katılım Haziran 2023
32 Takip Edilen126 Takipçiler
I mean seriously wtf are we doing? Fastest growing companies in the history of mankind. You literally just got headlines about Anthropic generating operating profits, which was THE biggest concern.
Besides that, do you really think anyone is just gonna let these go bust overnight? I’m not even saying they are good investments from here or anything but this seems irresponsible.
Rorschach Stocks@RorschachStocks
I genuinely cannot wrap my head around seeing generalists trying to short semis/AI. I feel like I see a new one every few weeks. A headline rips makes 20% in a day. The guys that really know this area barely know what’s going on why would you even mess with it? Gotta be easier calls out there.
English
@CRUDEOIL231 I am thankful because the jawboning is the only reason edge exists in the oil market for me. I just bought enough time on my options, October and January 85 BNO. October should be safe.
English
On May 20th, literally minutes before the EIA announced the biggest US crude draw on record, the tape got slammed with headlines saying a US-Iran deal was a done deal.
They explicitly pinned it to 'within hours' or 'tomorrow.' Total fiction obviously. Here we are on May 22nd, and that promised peace is still nowhere in sight
Then came that garbage Al Arabiya report about Vahidi and the Pakistani minister, which we now know was a sham built on a photoshopped image from 2024.
The funniest part? As soon as IRNA repeated the story, Al Arabiya bit their own tongue and denied they ever said a US-Iran accord was imminent.
The bottom line is these hack reporters just dump fake narratives to move the tape, and they never face the music. It is a joke anyone would think calling this out isn't the most justified response.
The oil complex’s price discovery is being completely broken by the artificial vol these clowns pump out.
Wrong is wrong, period. Gaslighting the market like this is no different from victim-blaming in a sexual assault case and screaming, 'You asked for it.'
The fraudsters are hiding in plain sight. They deserve to be dragged and held accountable, even if the financial media machine protects its own.
#oott #iran
English
@CRUDEOIL231 Iran made 2 months of triple revenue, and right now at 300-400 kbd they probably make as much as 800-900 kbd used to in prewar prices, they can last at least until midterms.
English
The US naval blockade isn't going to make Iran fold, but it is doing serious damage to their oil complex.
Iran oil loadings have absolutely cratered by around 1.5mb/d versus February, causing a rapid build in both onshore and floating inventories.
We haven’t seen Iranian barrel cross the US blockade line since mid-April, and their offshore storage outside the net is steadily drying up.
Stick to this playbook for two more months, and Iran’s oil revenue stream goes completely dark.
That said, don't bet on a white flag just yet—these guys already proved they could choke down near-zero exports and dirt-cheap crude back in the 2020-2021 cycle.
#oott #iran
English
@rev_cap No, monetary policy has not been abnormally loose in the last 5 years, inflation is coming from oil and tariffs as well as the COVID stimulus, while the stock boom is driven by AI, rightly or wrongly,
English
I still don’t think people appreciate how insane monetary policy has been the last 5 years
Complete break from really all historical patterns of behavior. Greenspan was like 100x more responsible than these guys
Not a surprise we have a major inflation
Problem
Ian Harnett@IanRHarnett
Many thanks to @johnauthers and @annerquaye for including some charts from a recent @asr_london note to clients in their @opinion article. John noted that "Over history, whenever earnings have risen like this, they have always brought interest rates up with them."
English
@50ptMAE I think it’s headed higher than 200 now, the more prices are kept artificially low by headlines now the faster inventories draw and the quicker we get shortages.
English
Every single day for the past 100 days the oil bagholders swear up and down its headed to 150 or 200, meanwhile it cant even break the high made on the very first day of the invasion.
50ptMAE@50ptMAE
@brain3rade yeah i noticed all the big oil journalists say its going much higher. at the end of the day theres a reason theyre journalists and not traders tho.
English
@EconstratPB We will get them next year, we run out of oil later this year and cause a big recession
English
Who the fuck is still talking about rate cuts??
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
FED RATE CUT BEFORE 2027 SLIPS TO 33% Kalshi traders now price just a 32.9% chance of a Fed rate cut before 2027, the lowest level in months. Odds have collapsed from over 90% earlier this year, with markets increasingly pricing a “higher for longer” rate path into 2027. kalshi.com/markets/kxrate…
English
@cap_zay None of them are real, strait remains closed, and because of the headlines there is no demand destruction, end result is we get shortages by September.
English
@Ross__Hendricks Yes it’s easy to temporarily have a profit for one quarter via window dressing, and Anthropic counts profits differently than OpenAI does.
English
I’d advise holding off on the enthusiasm about “profitability” at the LLMs until we see audited financials.
My bet: these companies may report positive “adjusted operating earnings” but they will never produce any meaningful amount of free cash flow ex stock comp
Mark it
English
@sdav1986 I was buyer at 4% but flipped as soon as the Iran War started, knew higher oil prices were coming. I think the left tail of rates 1-2 years is more likely though because of higher recession odds
English
@yieldsearcher I think American AI busts next year and doesn’t get bailed out (Democrats win Congress and bailing out AI is too toxic when unemployment is up and AI is blamed for it) then Chinese AI or it’s American copy become used a lot as it is more cost efficient.
English
The world is obv not ready for the scenario where AI turns out to be a dud.
But also, nor for the scenario where hyperscalers’ $1trn/yr capex actually turns out to be accretive.
There will have to be a new social contract if the latter is the case.
Ron DeSantis@RonDeSantis
Not surprising.
English
@bubbleboi This is why I thought you were an oil guy and not a semis guy
English
we are sooooo cooked
Barchart@Barchart
BREAKING 🚨: Japan Japan's 30-Year Yield jumps to 4.17%, the highest level in history 📈🇯🇵
English
@Dcpcooks Yield fairs have gone up but zirp is more likely than before
English
@Remzztrades Doesn’t just have to be calls above, you can trade puts below also
English
A month ago was the first time in three years that I truly stepped outside of my comfort zone as a trader, and it paid off in a big way.
Over the last few weeks, I shattered every personal record.
Biggest daily P&L.
Biggest weekly P&L.
Biggest monthly P&L.
And I know I am not the only one.
The reason I was ready is because I focused solely on what price action was telling me. I did not spend my time fear mongering or obsessing over whether the market was overvalued.
I stayed with the leading themes and pressed the names that were working day after day until they stopped.
That is how I trade.
When the market shows its hand, you have to be willing to trust your process and execute aggressively.
There are periods in the market where months, and sometimes years, of progress can happen in just a few weeks.
The key is being prepared when those windows open.
Today felt different.
After six consecutive weeks of multi day runners, traction started to fade. Setups were not sticking and price action felt noticeably weaker.
So I did exactly what I always say I will do.
Get ready to pivot if needed and chill.
Remz@Remzztrades
Market is in blue sky territory now. You have a bigger risk of not trying than actually trying. This is a lockout rally. It happened to me 4-5 times in my career where I literally stood there and just watched everyone make money. Not a good feeling. Try. Worst case you lose a few bucks. Best case you print
English
@bubbleboi I remember you in early March also talking about the end of the world
English
If you think today is bad, it’s not even going to compare to Tuesday/Wednesday.
English
@agnostoxxx Probably another jawbone coming soon that doesn’t actually open Hormuz but temporarily crashes oil
English
@AlexStepherylh @Ross__Hendricks The bull case for China is not NVDA chips, it’s if they can do reasonably well with a fraction of the resources and actually be mass deployed commercially without hemorrhaging cash. Anthropic and OpenAI are too resource intensive for mass adoption,
English
@r_walk7 @Ross__Hendricks Their local models are better than ours. Their frontier models will probably catch up soon if Nvidia is allowed to start selling chips to them.
English
@kpak82 Looks like you will finally get your reversal, leaders looking exhausted
English
2 straight weeks without interacting with trolls.
Week 1 was difficult. Week 2 not so much.
We are a creature of habit.
kpak@kpak82
I felt I could better control my emotions with trolls so my goal for this week was to not interact with them. That's something I had control over and got it taken care of. There are thing you have control over in life and in the stock market. Some people do not know the difference. They pat themselves on the back for getting lucky but luck is not sustainable.
English