Arvind Narayanan

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Arvind Narayanan

Arvind Narayanan

@random_walker

Princeton CS prof and Director @PrincetonCITP. Coauthor of "AI Snake Oil" and "AI as Normal Technology". https://t.co/ZwebetjZ4n Views mine.

Princeton, NJ Katılım Aralık 2007
550 Takip Edilen127.7K Takipçiler
Arvind Narayanan retweetledi
Adi
Adi@adi_baradwaj·
There's a recurring pattern that I keep seeing in work coming from the apocalyptic branch of the AI safety community, and it goes something like this: 1) Pick some intellectual "talent" that might be attributed to a person (e.g. persuasiveness, discernment, charisma, etc.) 2) Model this "talent" as a scalar quantity that is primarily determined by factors endogenous to the individual, as opposed to environmental/situational factors 3) Assume that this scalar quantity can be made arbitrarily large 4) Use this model to make predictions about the future of AI You can see this here with AI 2040's insinuation that "superhuman persuasiveness" is an idea we should be taking seriously It's not obvious to me at all that "persuasiveness" is a human talent, as opposed to a sociological random process that we retroactively perceive as a human "talent" To be clear, certainly it's true that a star debater might be marginally more "persuasive" than someone who's not! But I don't think a cult leader or a popular politician is 1,000x or 1,000,000x more "persuasive" than an ordinary person Rather, they're perceived being "persuasive" because they happen to be the figureheads for a complex sociological preference cascade. Their "persuasiveness" isn't really a thing you can causally influence at the individual level, and definitely not in an unbounded way In general, I think a lot of the AI 2040-style forecasting work does a poor job of dealing with this kind of irreducible complexity inherent to the universe. They usually just like to pretend it doesn't exist Not a huge fan of this pattern
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Gergely Orosz
Gergely Orosz@GergelyOrosz·
I am sometimes really surprised by how dumb very highly paid people in tech can be. 1. Leave Apple 2. Start building hardware at OpenAI 3. Access confidential Apple files on hardware, from an unreturned Apple laptop 4. Expect... what? To get away with it? A damning lawsuit
Gerrit De Vynck 🦭@GerritD

Major allegations about an Apple employee who joined OpenAI in Jan 2026, kept a laptop, found an exploit in Apple's systems and stole files over a multi-week time. This is similar to what Anthony Levandowski was accused of doing by Google back in 2018

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Sayash Kapoor
Sayash Kapoor@sayashk·
Can AI agents turn an architect's rough sketch into a floor plan? Not yet. But GPT-5.6 Sol comes surprisingly close. (Note: This eval was a collaboration with my mom @ViniKapoor7, who is a prolific but old-school architect. To this day, she drafts floor plans freehand instead of using software like AutoCAD, and junior architects convert them into computer-readable plans, stored as CAD files.) She shared three of her recent hand drawings, and we asked frontier agents to convert them into CAD files, which she then graded. Models from one generation ago fail badly. GPT-5.5 Pro scored 1/5 or 2/5 on every drawing; her comment on many outputs was that the model "read the drawing totally wrong." GPT-5.6 Sol (ultra) was uniformly the best model, with an average score of about 80%. It read her sketches correctly, recognized furniture, got room dimensions right, and even inferred things like where she had placed furniture (without specific instructions telling it her drawing conventions). Her verdict was that if a junior architect produced this in a work trial, she would hire them. Of course, this doesn't mean AI agents can replace junior architects, just like AI doing well at a bar exam doesn't mean lawyers will be obsolete. Junior architects quickly learn on the job, improve their skills over time, and can take accountability for their outputs. And GPT-5.6 Sol remains far from perfect: there were small errors in each of its outputs. The worst failure AI mode was silently changing the floor plan, and Fable 5 regularly hallucinated and committed this error (though note that this is with a small sample size: we only evaluate it on 3 runs). The results also suggest that models (including Fable 5) continue to fail at some visual reasoning tasks. For example, they often misread dimensions, drew double walls, got staircases wrong, and struggled with offsets and projections from base lines. This is surprising, since AI labs have been collecting data on architecture for months. For instance, Mercor has been hiring architects for data labeling, with CAD expertise as a key criterion, since at least September 2025. On the other hand, GPT-5.6 Sol was impressive not only in its outputs, but also in its calibration. It annotated its output with the assumptions it made, and my mom noted that with clearer instructions or a few examples of similar drafting, it could likely solve even the tasks it currently failed at. I was surprised that there aren’t existing AI benchmarks for carrying out this task, even though there are many benchmarks for working with CAD files (such as 3D reconstruction, editing existing plans, answering questions about plans, and developing text-to-floor-plan pipelines). This is probably because making hand-drawn floor plans is a disappearing skill. Most architects now start working directly with CAD files, and most architecture schools no longer teach hand drawing in as much detail. But this also makes it a very interesting evaluation task. It is out of distribution for most AI models, and requires skills like reading messy handwriting, visual and spatial reasoning, working with CAD software, and judgment about ambiguous or incomplete parts of a sketch. I'll continue to run these small-scale evaluations with new model releases to see how the landscape evolves. If you're an architect who still uses hand drawings and would like to participate, please reach out.
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Chris Barber (in SF)
Chris Barber (in SF)@chrisbarber·
What are the best takes you've seen on why the frontier of AI will or will not commoditize?
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Timothy B. Lee
Timothy B. Lee@binarybits·
I struggle with what to say about the new AI 2040: Plan A website. It all seems so implausible to me that I'm not sure where to start. There's an epistemic chasm between those who think superintelligence implies near-omnipotence and those (like me) who don't.
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Sayash Kapoor
Sayash Kapoor@sayashk·
We are hiring a senior researcher for our AI evaluation projects. You will lead open-ended evaluations of frontier AI on challenging tasks. We value demonstrated expertise in leading and executing on projects more than a PhD. We are reviewing applications on a rolling basis. 🧵
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Sayash Kapoor
Sayash Kapoor@sayashk·
One of the best pieces of advice I got during my PhD was that there are no repeatable paths in academia. This might sound daunting because of the lack of certainty. But once you internalize it, it is actually incredibly freeing! You don't need to participate in career games that don't interest you. You can choose to work on projects that are aligned with *your* values rather than your institution's. And because you're working on things you deeply believe in, there's much more likelihood that you'll do impactful things. Like so many other things I learned, this was advice by @random_walker. I would even extend it beyond academia: there are no repeatable paths when transformative technologies like AI are being deployed; even career paths otherwise considered "safe" will undergo massive structural changes. Might as well lean into it.
Nat Purser@NatPurser

unsolicited advice to college students and recent grads, after lots of recent coffees w/ people entering the job market: the most accomplished person you know may not have the most relevant career advice for you. they can offer immense wisdom ofc, but you should also seek out successful people in their late 20s / 30s who’ve been successful in the current job market. for example, students often tell me that their parents or an older, tenured professor have encouraged them to pursue academia because they’re bookish, intellectually curious, etc. and that may be sincere advice! — but it’s coming from someone who hasn’t confronted the relevant job market in decades. you can’t look at someone’s linkedin trajectory and assume trying to replicate it would pan out the same way now. ok good luck and godspeed.

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Sayash Kapoor
Sayash Kapoor@sayashk·
Overwhelmed by the support I have received since I announced my faculty appointment yesterday. I'm so grateful for the mentorship and support of @random_walker, who has been the best collaborator and mentor I could have asked for. (We aren't done yet; we have a book to write and a new venture to begin, and I look forward to continuing our collaboration.) Someone told me that getting a faculty appointment requires a minor miracle, given the number of talented applicants for each position, and I'm sure there was a heavy dose of luck in my appointment. That said, I'm very grateful for the support of so many people who wrote letters, strategized, and gave me advice and feedback during the applications and beyond. @percyliang, @PeterHndrsn, @alondra, Matt Salganik, @b_m_stewart, @JessicaHullman, @manoelribeiro, @RishiBommasani, @steverab, Jonathan Mayer, @karthik_r_n, Varun Rao, @ang3linawang, Mona Wang, @SciOrestis, @dsallentess, Serena Booth, Sarah Scheffler, @sethlazar, @ghadfield, and so many others supported me throughout the process. I'm also glad I have had such a strong group of collaborators over the years, without whom none of my work would be possible. Finally, I have received well over 100 expressions of interest in working with me for a PhD. I'm grateful for all of this interest, and look forward to engaging with your materials.
Sayash Kapoor@sayashk

Thrilled to share that I am joining UC Berkeley as an Assistant Professor in the School of Information! I start in Fall 2027, and I am recruiting PhD students this cycle. List me in your application if you're interested in frontier AI evaluation, AI policy, and AI's impacts on institutions such as science, law, and medicine. I'm especially keen to work with students interested not just in high-quality research, but also in communicating it with a broad audience such as by public writing and policy impact. Fill out the form in the next tweet to indicate your interest. As for this coming year, I'm moving to Berkeley this fall to start something new with @RishiBommasani and @random_walker. We'll have much more to share soon.

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Adewale Oshineye
Adewale Oshineye@ade_oshineye·
Creating a 'department of bad news' would cause interesting ripples in any corporate culture.
Arvind Narayanan@random_walker

Companies check their own work through various internal but independent functional units: QA, security red teams, model risk management in banks. **I think it’s time for AI evaluation to become one such unit.** Orgs deploying AI should stand up cross-functional eval teams with their own reporting line. Many reasons: 1) Evals as IP / moat. It’s now widely recognized that evals are the new IP. So it makes sense to have teams whose primary focus is on creating and widening this moat. 2) Evals are harder than you think. This is less well recognized but as someone whose research centers on AI evals this has been my consistent experience. It can't be an afterthought and must be a center of excellence. 3) Evals are inherently cross-functional and require a distinct set of skills. They are judgment heavy, require both AI expertise and deep domain expertise, as well as customer understanding and sophisticated thinking about risk. To do them well, you need competence in data science & stats, business operations, product/customer experience, IT, risk management, and even compliance (depending on the sector). 4) In-house but independent eval teams keep companies honest. A climate where teams are getting top-down mandates to hit deployment targets and show results has resulted in a culture of companies fooling themselves. It is extremely easy to knowingly or unknowingly to do evals poorly, making your AI deployment look much more successful than it is. Eval teams who don’t share the deploying teams’ KPIs are the best defense against this.

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Arvind Narayanan
Arvind Narayanan@random_walker·
@CarolinaMttssn I would love to ... if you could give some guidance on what would make it manager friendly :) Is it mainly a matter of tweet vs blog? Or is it too short? Or not the right lingo? Thanks!
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Carolina Mattsson
Carolina Mattsson@CarolinaMttssn·
@random_walker Do you have a manager-friendly write-up on this? Asking for a friend who would pass this on to management if there is one
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Arvind Narayanan
Arvind Narayanan@random_walker·
Companies check their own work through various internal but independent functional units: QA, security red teams, model risk management in banks. **I think it’s time for AI evaluation to become one such unit.** Orgs deploying AI should stand up cross-functional eval teams with their own reporting line. Many reasons: 1) Evals as IP / moat. It’s now widely recognized that evals are the new IP. So it makes sense to have teams whose primary focus is on creating and widening this moat. 2) Evals are harder than you think. This is less well recognized but as someone whose research centers on AI evals this has been my consistent experience. It can't be an afterthought and must be a center of excellence. 3) Evals are inherently cross-functional and require a distinct set of skills. They are judgment heavy, require both AI expertise and deep domain expertise, as well as customer understanding and sophisticated thinking about risk. To do them well, you need competence in data science & stats, business operations, product/customer experience, IT, risk management, and even compliance (depending on the sector). 4) In-house but independent eval teams keep companies honest. A climate where teams are getting top-down mandates to hit deployment targets and show results has resulted in a culture of companies fooling themselves. It is extremely easy to knowingly or unknowingly to do evals poorly, making your AI deployment look much more successful than it is. Eval teams who don’t share the deploying teams’ KPIs are the best defense against this.
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Arvind Narayanan
Arvind Narayanan@random_walker·
@tobycmurray IMO curiosity is definitely a value! Value doesn't have to mean impact; I agree my table was a bit too focused on that.
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Toby Murray
Toby Murray@tobycmurray·
@random_walker Where does curiosity driven research sit here? Much great work has been done to slake no more than curiosity, only to discover it has real benefit years or decades later. This mode seems to share many virtues of what you espouse but without the upfront value guarantee
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Arvind Narayanan
Arvind Narayanan@random_walker·
At the start of my research career I operated in a deadline-driven mode because that's what most researchers seemed to do. Gradually I discovered the value-driven way of working. I'm glad I had a supportive advisor who didn't make me chase deadlines. It took me 20 years to fully embrace the switch — it requires developing a long-term vision, willpower to create structure without deadline pressure, a theory of value, project management skills, good taste, the willingness to turn projects down, brutal honesty about whether our work is any good (even if it gets published), and a lot more. But there is no going back!
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Arvind Narayanan@random_walker·
On picking projects, not problems: x.com/random_walker/…
Arvind Narayanan@random_walker

One question I'm sometimes asked is how my research group picks problems. Do I come up with most of the ideas for new papers, or do the students? Neither! I strongly believe that research is more effective if we pick projects, not problems. What's the difference? - Projects are long-term research agendas that last 3-5 years or more. A productive project could easily produce a dozen or more papers (depends on the field, of course — in some fields papers represent a lot more work than in others). - Projects are defined not by a research question but by a change we want to see in the world. For example, the goal of a current project in my group is to make AI more reliable. We may or may not succeed, but the point is that this is a much more ambitious scope than can be tackled in a single paper. (Some fields have a norm that their job is only to describe the world, not change it. This is culturally jarring to me but even in that case I think projects are better defined in terms of a change you want to see in the research community, if not the external world.) - Projects are best executed by a core team that stays together and provides intellectual continuity but with a diverse and varying set of collaborators for individual papers which helps constantly bring in new perspectives. Why pick projects instead of problems? If your method is to jump from problem to problem, you face a tradeoff. You could pick small problems that you can tackle in a month or two, but in that case the resulting papers may not have much impact. Or your can go deep into a topic for many years (essentially what I've described as a project, but structured as a single paper), but that's extremely risky. In my experience, once a research team is committed to a project, generating the research questions that individual papers in the project will tackle is fairly straightforward. Each paper in the project naturally generates a bunch of new questions and directions for future work. So generating new ideas is not the hard part, rather it is the profusion of ideas. How to select among them? Ideally some combination of intellectual curiosity and whatever best furthers the project's overall goals and vision.

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Arvind Narayanan
Arvind Narayanan@random_walker·
Freedom from publish-or-perish is the biggest benefit of tenure. But by the time they get there, most researchers have been on the deadline treadmill for so long they've forgotten any other way to do things. The amount of wasted potential in academia is shocking and sad. x.com/resistancemone…
Andrew M. Bailey@resistancemoney

Tenure helps. As does explicit development of one's own "Band Manager" skills — executive function, that is. You can grow in this area if you try, which is a great blessing!

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Mohamed Kambal
Mohamed Kambal@MuhammedKambal·
@random_walker Thanks a lot, this could actually be generalized to life as a whole and not only research.
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