Dave Wasserman

We’re in uncharted waters now with a high degree of uncertainty. We don’t know how the SCOTUS standard will be applied going forward. But we do know that Southern states will take an aim at many Black-majority seats, most likely before 2028. Read our full thoughts on VRA here:

New @CookPolitical: Three big takeaways from the Supreme Court’s Voting Rights Act decision. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

Initial VRA thoughts — working this through on the fly. Louisiana and South Carolina are the most likely to draw out Dem seats. But both have their primaries very soon and the filing deadlines are long gone. Doubtful there’s enough time for new maps this year. (1/?)

It's nearly impossible to disentangle race and partisanship in the South, which is why this ruling could have such apocalyptic consequences for Black representation across the Deep South (more likely in '28 than '26).

And, for that “temporary’ pause in CA of non-partisan redistricting until 2030. Hard to believe that Dems in the state will not fight for partisan redistricting if Rs get rid of 5-7 Dem seats in the south in 2028

New @CookPolitical: DeSantis gerrymander targets four Dem seats, but not all are guaranteed GOP pickups in 2026 - and three FL GOP incumbents would remain at some risk. My full analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

The four Dems most imperiled by this proposal: #FL09 Darren Soto (D) #FL14 Kathy Castor (D) #FL23 Jared Moskowitz (D) #FL25 Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) The riskiest play? Targeting Castor, b/c surrounding Tampa Bay GOP seats would be absorbing many of her Dem voters.

NEW: per Fox News, new FL map proposed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would target four Dem seats, aiming to convert a 20R-8D delegation to 24R-4D. But in a year like 2026, not all of the 24 seats would be safe for the GOP. More from @CookPolitical soon. foxnews.com/politics/ron-d…

With our @CookPolitical rating changes following the Virginia referendum's passage, the median House seat is now getting dangerously close to Lean Democrat. That didn't even happen in 2018. Needless to say, Democrats are the clear favorites to win a House majority.

If you want to understand what comes next in VA, read @ercovey ‘s very smart piece here! cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

I'm going to break my self-imposed social media ban to note something that I might write if I wasn't leaving on a trip tonight: If you want to solve gerrymandering, it is a solvable problem.

Want to know what I'm thinking as the VA referendum results are coming in tonight? Be sure to tune into @CookPolitical's Substack live.

With an increasingly sour national environment for Republicans, the Senate battlefield is shifting. We are moving four ratings, all in Democrats’ favor. Read more from @JessicaTaylor: cookpolitical.com/analysis/senat…

Interested in joining the field of nonpartisan election analysis? Don't miss this terrific (and rare) job opportunity at @InsideElections. insideelections.com/news/article/j…

Why is Spanberger not popular; voters elected her bc she said she’d focus on affordability. Thus far, she’s most tied w/ a thing she didn’t campaign on, and one that is definitely not about controlling cost of living: a very partisan 10-1 map.

NEW @CookPolitical House ratings show Dems as substantial favorites for control, as Republicans would need to win 76% of the Toss Ups to keep their majority: cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-… Lean/Likely/Solid Dem: 213 Lean/Likely/Solid GOP: 205 Toss Up: 17

NEW @CookPolitical House rating changes: five races move towards Dems, one towards GOP. Notably, #PA08 Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R) moves from Lean R to Toss Up. Full analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

RT @CookPolitical: TODAY at 2pm ET! What questions do you have for Dave Wasserman @Redistrict about the midterms? He'll answer them on Subs…