Richard Chen

@JJR_Equity @AST_SpaceMobile Okay

🚨 MARKET ALERT: $ASTS APOCALYPSE INCOMING 🚨🚀📉 The rocket expedition was an absolute TRAINWRECK. The tech failed, the dreams died, and the hype train just hit a concrete wall. 💥🚂 Expect a BLOODBATH at the opening bell tomorrow. 🩸📉 Paper hands are already hitting the exit, and the shorts are about to feast. 📉🐻 If you’re still holding, prayers up. This is going to zero faster than the rocket could ever fly. 💸📉

AST SpaceMobile Addresses Today’s Orbital Launch of BlueBird 7 on the New Glenn Launch Vehicle businesswire.com/news/home/2026…

@endless_frank wooosahhh frank

$ASTS On second thought, this bird might be done. Not high enough to continue its orbit. Blue Origin needs to figure out the second stage problem and Abel needs to revise year end targets from 45 satellites to 44 satellites. Not trying to be funny. If they can’t get those thrusters to raise the altitude the satellite won’t orbit for long. Just glad this is only one satellite and we have batches coming. Not a whole lot changed today. This is how Space X evolved. You try until you get it right, then once you do everything changes.

@thekookreport @nextbigfuture The math ain’t mathing with this one. He was better off saying we’re don’t have enough fuel instead of this gibberish

@nextbigfuture What’s your source? Thanks for sharing your insights.

AST Space mobile satellite ended up low. Problem on engine relight for circularizing orbit, but initial first and second stage were ok. ~150–250 m/s total delta-v needed (rough best estimate), ~40–100 kg of xenon propellant, and continuous thrusting over days to ~2–4 weeks to reach the planned ~460 km circular orbit. This will shorten the satellite’s operational life modestly (likely by several months to ~1–2 years out of its 7-year design life), but it is within the BlueBird 7’s designed capabilities and not expected to be catastrophic. Should be using 10-30% of the fuel. If the orbit is worse than the estimate then they have more problems. If the payload can be saved then it is a pretty good success for Blue Origin and for AST Space Mobile.

@IngJuanPa7 Bro lay off ChatGPT

⚠️ UPDATE CRÍTICO: primeros datos orbitales de BlueBird 7 $ASTS y no son buenos. Jonathan McDowell, acaba de publicar los parámetros orbitales que la Space Force registró para BB7: Órbita actual: 154 km × 494 km × 36.1° inclinación. Vamos a traducir eso a impacto real usando los números del ODAR que analicé antes. Lo que significa cada cifra: El satélite está en una órbita elíptica (no circular). El perigeo (punto más bajo) está a 154 km — extremadamente bajo, ahí el drag atmosférico (rozamiento con la atmósfera residual que frena al satélite) es severísimo y la órbita decae rápido. El apogeo (punto más alto) está a 494 km — también muy por debajo de los ~700 km operacionales del Block 2. La inclinación de 36.1° es consistente con lo contratado. El dato más inquietante: el epoch corresponde a SECO-1 SECO-1 significa Second Engine Cut-Off 1 — el fin de la primera quema de la segunda etapa del New Glenn. El perfil nominal de NG-3 incluía una quema inicial, un coast (deriva en órbita) de aproximadamente 1 hora, y una segunda quema de 68 segundos para elevar al satélite a su órbita final antes del deploy. Si los datos actuales reflejan la órbita post-SECO-1 y no hay un TLE (Two-Line Element, formato estándar de datos orbitales) posterior confirmando una órbita más alta, hay dos lecturas posibles: la segunda quema no ocurrió o falló parcialmente, o la segunda quema ocurrió pero con desempeño deficiente. Cálculo del delta-v requerido: Para llevar BB7 desde 154 × 494 km hasta una órbita circular operacional de 700 km se requieren aproximadamente: → Elevar el perigeo de 154 a 494 km: ~95 m/s → Circularizar en 494 km: marginal → Elevar desde 494 a 700 km (maniobra de transferencia Hohmann): ~115 m/s Total requerido: ~210 m/s Presupuesto disponible de BB7 según el ODAR: 50–70 m/s El satélite necesita 3 a 4 veces más delta-v del que físicamente tiene almacenado en sus tanques. No es una cuestión de tiempo o paciencia — es una limitación física absoluta. Factor agravante crítico: Con perigeo a 154 km, el drag atmosférico es tan intenso que el satélite experimenta frenado significativo cada vez que pasa por ese punto. Si la órbita se mantiene así sin capacidad de corrección material, BB7 podría reentrar a la atmósfera en días o semanas, no años. El área gigante del phased array (antena plana de 223 m² desplegada) amplifica el drag. Qué hay que monitorear en las próximas horas: El 18th Space Defense Squadron (unidad de la Fuerza Espacial de EE.UU. que rastrea objetos en órbita) actualizará el TLE cuando tenga una nueva medición. Hay dos posibilidades: → Escenario positivo: nuevo TLE con apogeo significativamente más alto → la segunda quema sí ocurrió, solo hay un retardo en el reporte → Escenario negativo: TLE confirma órbita similar (~150-500 km) → pérdida total del satélite confirmada. Lectura actualizada: Si los datos iniciales se confirman, estamos en el Escenario de pérdida total del activo. BB7 está encendido, responde telemetría, pero físicamente no puede llegar a su órbita operacional. Es un satélite perfectamente funcional atrapado en una órbita de la que no puede salir. Impacto en $ASTS: No es ruptura de tesis, pero sí un headwind real. Pérdida contable: un satélite más los costes del lanzamiento asociado. Impacto en cronograma: retraso mientras Blue Origin investiga la anomalía (probable stand-down de NG-4). Impacto operacional: la cadencia de 30 días entre lanzamientos de Blue Origin que Avellan anunció para 2026 queda en pausa. Factor mitigante importante: ASTS tiene >$3.9B en caja, 40 microns (unidades básicas que ensamblan el phased array) en producción, BB8-BB19 en fases de ensamblaje, y aún puede volver a SpaceX/ISRO mientras Blue Origin investiga. La constelación objetivo de 45-60 satélites sigue siendo viable, solo con menos margen en el calendario. Impacto en la tesis: NEUTRA con sesgo negativo 🟡 → probable DETERIORADA en corto plazo si se confirma pérdida total.

@orbitalinvestor @thekookreport Why? There’s insurance money. We are building bb8-32. It didn’t fail on ASTS side.

@thekookreport Fuck. They’ve been working on this satellite for almost 2 years. This is a nightmare

Here’s what that update means in practical terms for ASTS: The good news: The rocket worked, the satellite separated from the upper stage, and BlueBird 7 is alive — it has power and is communicating. A dead-on-arrival satellite is the worst-case outcome, and they’ve avoided that. The bad news: “Off-nominal orbit” means the satellite was dropped off in the wrong place — the orbit differs from the intended insertion parameters (likely altitude, inclination, or both). This is a Blue Origin / New Glenn second-stage performance issue, not an AST hardware issue. What happens next depends on how off-nominal: •Mildly off-nominal — BlueBird 7 has onboard propulsion (Hall-effect thrusters on Block 2) and can raise/circularize its own orbit, burning propellant it would otherwise use for station-keeping. Mission succeeds but operational life is shortened. •Significantly off-nominal — the satellite may not be able to reach its operational altitude at all, or gets there with so little fuel that useful life is badly compromised. In a worst case it becomes a partial or total loss. $ASTS

@retail_mourinho GGNORE. Just sell now. Save yourself from the FUD!

$ASTS: The unsuccessful BB7 launch of course would hit the stock short-term tremendously as the next launch is not around the corner. Will act on Monday accordingly after the official statement. My thoughts for now: 1. Launch successfully: Keep my shares 2. Launch unsuccessfully and BB7 is gone: Clear sell/trim as the stock will have a lot of pressure and no upcoming catalysts For longterm investors: A hold of course. That’s the game. Sometimes you lose, sometimes you win. -RM

@spacanpanman Damn. I wish I could be there. Soon ™️

$ASTS: SpaceMob loading

@spacanpanman Let’s fucking go

$ASTS: SpaceMob gathers

@endless_frank You don’t make money with PR. You make money by securing the customers and building the product. The bottle neck is launch. We have cash to sustain. We prepaid for our launches already. In my eyes all is good. Pumping stock price isn’t a KPI

$ASTS Honestly have to call a spade a spade. This is one of the biggest opportunities I’ve ever encountered and I’m not selling, but they are really doing everything they can to mess this up narratively speaking. They look like they can’t execute, they dodge important questions on conference calls, they’ve done nothing to get the market excited about their prospects for months and they’ve over promised and under delivered badly. They can turn this all around, but let’s just call a spade a spade for now. They need to change the narrative about Amazon’s purchase and Rakuten’s sale. We have anonymous meme accounts doing spaces daily just to explain to the market what’s actually happening. This is a large cap tech stock with huge financial backers, not some micro cap company. Seriously what are we doing? We’re submitting FCC filings for shells of 543 satellites and we haven’t completed 1 satellite in 4 months? Or if we have, why haven’t we been made aware of it? Where are the partnership announcements and deals for all of these new shells of satellites? Who and what are they for? Maybe we can’t know specifics if they’re defense contracts, but give us something. I’ve literally been all in for a couple of years now supporting this company as my number 1 investment and I’m thankful for the gains thus far, but the great Babe Ruth once said “Yesterday’s home runs don’t win today’s games”. Happy to help run the PR team if I have to! Everything goes up but us lately and nobody has bet more against any company in the market than us. That speaks to what I’m saying. Let’s go we can be better!! 🅰️🚀

@NotDarkYet8 Wait how did you sign up!

Help $ASTS SpaceMob. Does this email mean that I’m fully invited, or is there still the possibility of a random drawing that would mean that I don’t get the official invite?

AST SpaceMobile Announces BlueBird 7 Launch Date of Sunday, April 19, Invites Retail Investors to Attend Live Launch Event at Cape Canaveral businesswire.com/news/home/2026…

@202accepted this is a stupid policy. just like his tax the rich grift ended up targeting EVERY SINGLE HOMEOWNER via 50% estate tax over $750,000 , this will dangerously backfire. you know who is exempt from all of this? nonprofits. when nonprofits own everything then what?

i hate to say it but a 1% tax on property over $5m you don’t live in is hard to argue against for the average voter like, the solution is simply “actually live in NYC”, “what are you so broke you can’t afford 1%?”, and “well you could just leave NYC” all are ego hits none of these property owners don’t wanna take and have a hard time refuting love or hate him, he’s actually doing something vs most mayors and tells you in the slickest way possible

@LincolnRestler Citibike aka Lyft is a unprofitable pubicly funded program. SHUT IT DOWN

A Citi Bike ride shouldn’t cost a penny more than a subway or bus ride. We’ve got a bill to cap e-bike fees at $3 and end Citi Bike-flation.

@WallStreetApes Vote out the politicians increasing taxes, regulations that directly creates inflation for those cities and states

Woman says she served in the US Military, she went to college and became a nurse She says she did everything she was supposed to do. Her husband works at Intel. Even with both their incomes, they still can’t afford a home She is thinking of getting a second job because after paying $3,000 per month in rent, car payments and insurance they have almost nothing left “I did everything I was supposed to do. I went, I was in the military, I went to college, I worked and we can't buy a home. What did I do wrong?” America is not supposed to be like this. If you work hard you should be able to afford a home and have a good life

@WallyBuckLive His wife is Stephanie lmao

Hey, $GME gang. We’re all retarded. I think I finally realized what is holding up the MOASS. The Chair Man has an ongoing divorce proceeding. MOASS won’t happen until the divorce proceeding completes. This seems so obvious… *Sigh

@PK_Fund Who cares. Buy the dip

$ASTS DO YOU EVEN UNDERSTAND WHAT GLOBALSTAR DOES?!? Texts. If they were capable of actual talk/video service, DON'T YOU THINK THEY WOULD OFFER IT!?? Do you think they will magically offer real phone service because they were bought by Amazon??? Amazon is buying them for the spectrum they have. DO SOME RESEARCH BEFORE SELLING ASTS YOU STUPID STUPID PEOPLE.

@guo_lin99725 That’s the same bear argument the next launch. We don’t need to depend on NG. There’s many launch partners

$ASTS i thought the bulls were wrong — now i'm not so sure bluebird 7 got encapsulated at cape canaveral on february 19. it's april 15. the satellite is still on the ground. almost two months of delay, and counting. why? new glenn ng-3. first new glenn attempt: january 16, 2025 — booster lost. second attempt: november 13, 2025 — success. third attempt: april 10-14 window, delayed. current target: april 16. ng-3 is attempting blue origin's first orbital booster reuse. the booster being flown? recovered from ng-2. nicknamed "never tell me the odds." but here's the thing: that booster landed successfully once. flying it again is a different beast entirely. on top of that, ng-3 introduces upgraded be-4 engines with higher thrust. untested in flight. blue origin announced the upgrade path in november 2025 — basically three months before ng-3. so you've got two firsts stacked together. first booster reuse. first upgraded engines. on a rocket with exactly two flights total. why does this matter for asts? because asts's entire 2026 launch cadence — 45 to 60 satellites, every one to two months — depends on new glenn being a mature, high-cadence vehicle. it isn't one yet. the bull case is real. bluebird 6 works. $1.1B in contracted revenue commitments. AT&T partnership. direct-to-device technology is proven. but the path to commercial scale runs entirely through ng-3. and right now, blue origin is asking that rocket to do three hard things at once: land a booster for the first time, fly upgraded engines for the first time, and deliver the payload asts needs for its 2026 network plan. maybe i'm wrong. maybe it all works clean. if so, asts is a category-defining company. but i'm not buying until i see that booster land twice.

@endless_frank dude. are you okay? you're starting to sound extra shillish/spreading FUD. not cool bro

$ASTS Lightbulb just went off in my head. We’ve all said Abel won’t sell, but if Amazon/Blue Origin and Space X (both our main launch providers) tried to make it difficult for us to launch, what if Abel has no choice but to sell? We know that number will be at least 150b minimally and all shareholders can still participate in the growth of the business post sale if they choose to do an all stock deal. I think the market is grossly getting any threat to AST wrong. Either they grow to a trillion or two, or they’re forced to partner/sell to one of the two strategic mega caps, or just merge with Blue Origin. Either way, the valuation is going MUCH MUCH higher than here. /End

@dylanairhart @SyntheticSpy @davill @_MaxQ_ Do you understand the basic principles of the scientific method?

@SyntheticSpy @davill @_MaxQ_ Then they should fly them now. Flying the upgrades and going back is pointless. Refly the upgrades.

Some interesting differences here in "Never Tell Me The Odds" engine section for NG-3 🤔 The BE-4's engine bells are lacking an sort of exterior bracing/plumbing like we've seen on engines used on New Glenn's first two flights and on Vulcan - left photo is mine from NTMTO's rollout for NG-2, right photo is a screen grab taken from the video linked below. ALSO: in the screen grab, the bottom left BE-4 engine bell is discolored compared to the other 6 engines...@davill are y'all reusing an engine from Flight 2??

@pr0ud_americans She locked in the electric rate for two years. Aka free profits for energy companies.

Finally, a Democrat making a smart move on energy. Big news for South Jersey — Governor Mikie Sherrill just signed legislation ending New Jersey’s 40-year de facto moratorium on new nuclear power. She did it at the Salem Nuclear Power Plant, which already supplies about 40% of our state’s electricity and most of our carbon-free power. The outdated 1970s red tape is gone. This clears the way for modern, safe nuclear expansion. More reliable, affordable, clean energy for NJ families. Good move, Governor.