Rick Mummery
608 posts

Rick Mummery
@rickmummery
Web Designer/Dev/Music Producer/Sound Engineer - Webflow - 9 years owner of https://t.co/2ciciVTrUL
Las Vegas Katılım Ekim 2016
421 Takip Edilen797 Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet

@mrblackstudio Is this for a physical sign to go out front? #3 is the most noticeable/readable for clients to find.
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@oleg008 DRY or simplify. The less code the less time consuming it is to review it.
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Pricing is almost locked in.
We compared Blink with some of the biggest digital product platforms, and one thing became clear: creators deserve more than just payments.
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Selling digital products or @framer templates?
Join the waitlist ↓

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@omarelabd Framer doesn’t make any money from templates and AI agents is now the deciding factor to attract more customers whereas templates were the key.
Rick Mummery@rickmummery
Framer’s move is straight forward. 1. AI Agents cost money. 2. Template reviewers cost money. Only 1 is the future. Lovable is not profitable because AI tokens are expensive. If Framer is to compete, money must flow to AI tokens.
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@MaybeFlorent @framer It looks the same as Webflow’s changing to 95% commission and majority decreasing template staff.
Framer is stepping away and don’t want to heavily manage it anymore.
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@alphaticaio Institutions buy because they are mandated to be always invested over a certain %. Not because they think the market is going up so that's why they hedge.
It's not good advice to buy because institutions are buying.
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@DualityResearch Forward earnings estimates can change suddenly as companies pull back on token spend. Not a good idea to try to predict an insanely dynamic environment.
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This is a new chart that will be featured in our weekly SectorSnap report.
In addition to illustrating the S&P 500's valuation bands, it combines forward earnings estimates with a range of valuation scenarios to help frame where the market could be headed. Hope you like it! 🤙🏼
Find it here 👉🏼 dualityresearch.substack.com/p/week-23-7da

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@stevelauda_ They need to read Peter Thiel's Zero to One. It's a classic creators bias to put product above marketing.
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@alphaticaio It would’ve been better to have a honest straight forward conversation about market mechanic and perhaps learn something instead of resulting to marketing talk.
You can Grok my replies and you’ll see they’re 100% correct because I’ve studied this deeply.
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@rickmummery We classify direction using a proprietary methodology. The results on our feed speak for themselves. We welcome the skepticism. We have a time tested approach that has worked. $SPY
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$INGM UPDATE:
Before: 🟢 validated bullish ignition (extreme SVR collapse + institutional accumulation)
Now: 🟢-leaning persistent accumulation (moderate SVR + ongoing institutional buying)
INGM is starting to look interesting here. Lots of dark pool footprints right now.
$INGM $DRAM $QQQ

Alphatica@alphaticaio
$INGM The bullish confirmation from yesterdays post has been validated 🟢 and is firing. INGM is active in Dark Pools again today. $SPY $QQQ
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@alphaticaio This isn’t true because market makers e.g. Citadel internalize retail flows and purchase via dark pool in small and large blocks. There’s no way to tell from the outside because of the internalization of retail order fulfillment.
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@rickmummery We track the print size and frequency to distinguish. Large blocks at consistent intervals suggest institutional accumulation. Small fragmented prints suggest retail internalization. $SPY $INGM
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@stevelauda_ Let it show up unexpectedly by not keeping track. Life is a journey and not a score card.
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Rick Mummery retweetledi

Japanese actor Hiroyuki Sanada spoke about the contradictions of human nature:
“Some people dream of having a swimming pool at home, while those who have one hardly ever use it. Those who have lost a loved one feel a profound sense of loss, while others often complain about their living relatives. Those without a partner long for one, while those who have one often don't appreciate it. The hungry would give anything for a meal, while the satiated complain about the taste of their food. Those without a car dream of owning one, while those who have a car are always looking for a better one.”
The key to happiness is gratitude: truly seeing and appreciating what we already have, and understanding that somewhere, someone would give anything for what we take for granted.


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Overall interesting analysis, but the new fed chair could use further historical insight.
“Historical patterns from transitions since 1930 show average S&P 500 drawdowns of roughly 5% in the first month, 12% by three months, and 10-16% over six months following new Fed leadership.“
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🚨🚨SPY WEEKEND ALERT | Saturday May 16 | The Week Ahead
THE SPRINT TO 7,462 IS OVER
$739.12 close. The gamma cliff is behind us. Two buy signals are running. NVDA reports Wednesday. Here's what the structure, the research, and the calendar say about next week.
THE DAMAGE REPORT:
Friday's monthly OpEx drained 36.8% of total gamma. We forecasted 24.3%. The actual drain was 50% larger because gamma concentrates non-linearly as expiration approaches. We explained this mechanic to readers during the week. The data confirmed it.
2.61M gamma shares and 16.85M delta shares expired. The largest single-session gamma rolloff since we started tracking. Surviving delta dropped from +119M last Friday to +49.18M. A 59% reduction in the dealer engine.
The Alphatica Composite Score: -12.5 [Neutral]. Down from +31.8 Friday afternoon. A 44-point collapse in the final hours. The widest intraday swing of the cycle.
GEX: -$201M total. Near-term: -$326M. The structure that was +$1.39B six days ago is now amplifying moves instead of absorbing them.
Dealers short 103.3M shares. Down from 217.4M (the all-time record set Thursday). The engine lost 53% of its capacity in two sessions. Still running. At half power.
P/C ratio: 2.28. Put OI: 11.64M. Down from 15.06M pre-OpEx as 3.42M puts expired. The hedge book shrank but remains elevated. IV: 15.2%. Above realized (13.5%). Options still pricing more risk than the market is delivering.
THE BUY SIGNALS:
Two active signals are running. Both backtested. Both statistically significant. Both pointing higher.
Inflation matrix (Both Hot): +1.44% SPY, 69% win rate over 20 days. +2.67% QQQ, 81% win rate (p = 0.006). Day 3 of 20. The clock started May 13.
CPI hot selloff edge: +0.88% SPY over 20 days, 66% win rate (p = 0.034). Day 4 of 20. The clock started May 12.
Friday's $13.1B institutional accumulation ($6.97B LIT blocks, $6.16B dark pool) confirms the positioning. The smart money bought the gamma cliff.
THE MACRO BACKDROP:
Bond yields. The 30-year Treasury closed at 5.127%, the highest since 2007. The 10-year at 4.595%. The 30-year mortgage jumped to 6.65%. The biggest weekly yield spike since the tariff shock in early 2025. Global bonds sold off in unison. This is the headwind. But yields at extremes tend to mean-revert, and Warsh's first public comments could stabilize the narrative.
Oil. Our $WTI days-above-$100 research continues to track. WTI above $104, Brent above $108. Our research showed SPY forward returns deteriorate monotonically the longer oil stays above $100. At 30+ days, SPY 10-day returns flip negative and never recover. WTI briefly dipped below $100 in early May, resetting the clock. The new count is roughly 5 trading days. The 30-day danger zone is weeks away. The price doesn't matter. The duration does. We continue to monitor the day count.
Warsh. Confirmed 54-45. His first FOMC meeting is June 16-17. Any public statement this week moves yields. He believes AI is a "significant disinflationary force," which gives him latitude on rates even with hot inflation data. The market is watching his tone, not his first decision.
NVDA EARNINGS:
Nvidia reports Wednesday May 20 after the close. Q1 FY2027. Consensus: ~$1.75 EPS, ~$68B revenue. The market is pricing a +/- 6.4% post-earnings move. Last quarter: revenue $68.1B, up 73% YoY.
This is the most important single-stock earnings event of the quarter. NVDA alone moves $200B+ in market cap on an earnings reaction. It sets the tone for AI, semiconductors, and the Nasdaq. 🚨🚨We will be releasing our Alphatica Earnings Model prediction on NVDA ahead of the report.
The timing matters. NVDA reports Wednesday evening. Thursday's reaction lands on rising wedge day 12 of 20.8, inside the resolution window, with the thinnest gamma blanket since April. A beat lifts the entire market and could invalidate the wedge. A miss into the thin blanket amplifies the downside with no gamma cushion.
🚨🚨Wednesday is the event of the week. Everything else orbits around it.
RISING WEDGE:
Day 9 of 20.8. The adverse move peaked at $748.17 on Thursday (+2.2% from $732 detection). Friday pulled back to $739.12. Breakdown level: $732. Distance: $7.
The pattern enters its resolution window next week (days 10-15). But two buy signals are running against it. The inflation matrix says +1.44% forward. The CPI edge says +0.88%. The institutional flow on Friday was the strongest dip-buy we have recorded in the last 60-days. The wedge says down. Everything else says up. NVDA is the tiebreaker.
WHAT THE STRUCTURE SAYS ABOUT NEXT WEEK:
The gamma blanket is 37% thinner. Ranges expand. The tight 0.3-0.5% daily moves that defined the grind are over. Expect 0.8-1.5% daily moves until the gamma rebuilds.
Magnets above: $740 (+$80M), $745 (+$119M), $750 (+$104M), $755 (+$103M). Still present but weaker than last week's $300M readings.
Accelerators below: $730 (-$99M), $715 (-$46M), $710 (-$88M), $700 (-$85M). The downside chain is loaded if $730 breaks.
GEX flip: $683. Cushion: 7.5%. An 8% crash to break the floor. That's the insurance.
SPY RANGE FOR NEXT WEEK (May 18-22):
Bear case ($725-$735): Rising wedge breaks $732, NVDA misses or guides weak, bond yields push higher, Warsh signals hawkish. The $730 accelerator fires. The thin blanket can't absorb it.
Base case ($735-$750): The buy signals pull price higher. The structure digests the rolloff. Gamma rebuilds through new positioning. NVDA beats in line or modestly. Wider daily ranges but a higher weekly close than Friday's $739.
Bull case ($750-$760): NVDA crushes estimates, Warsh signals dovish tone, bond yields stabilize. The magnets above pull price back toward Thursday's highs and beyond. The inflation matrix forward returns front-load.
🚨🚨Our lean: base case. Two buy signals are active. The oil duration clock is at 5 days, well within the tolerance window. $13.1B of institutional money bought the gamma cliff. The dealer engine is at 103M, still running. The deep floor at $683 provides structural insurance. The gamma blanket is thinner but the active signals lean higher. The rising wedge is the counterweight. $NVDA on Wednesday is the catalyst that determines whether the week resolves closer to $750 or $740 by Friday.
KEY LEVELS:
$750 prior high / magnet
$745 resistance / magnet
$740 at price
$732 rising wedge breakdown
$730 first accelerator (-$99M)
$711 max pain gravity
$683 GEX flip / structural floor
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING:
Monday: First full session with the thin blanket. The width of Monday's range tells you the character of the week.
Wednesday: NVDA earnings after the close. The single most important event of the week. Our Alphatica Earnings Model prediction drops before the report.
Thursday: NVDA reaction into the thinnest gamma blanket since April. Rising wedge day 12 of 20.8. This session likely defines the rest of May.
Friday: Weekly OpEx. Rising wedge day 13.
Active signals: Rising wedge (day 9 of 20.8). Inflation matrix Both Hot (day 3 of 20). CPI hot selloff 20-day forward (day 4 of 20). Three clocks running simultaneously.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
The gamma cliff arrived on schedule. 36.8% drained. The structure is thinner, the oil clock is in the safe zone, and $13.1B of institutional money bought the dip. NVDA on Wednesday is the catalyst. Base case: $735-$750.
🚨🚨The sprint to 7,462 is over. The next chapter starts with NVDA.
$SPY $QQQ $VIX

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@alphaticaio Market makers buy/sell retail flows on the dark pool also no?
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DARK POOL UPDATE | May 13, 2026
$8.8B in off-exchange flow. 326 prints ≥$5M. Net: +$2.85B buy.
Yesterday the dark pool said -$1.05B sell. Today it flipped to +$2.85B buy. The lit tape and the dark pool are aligned on almost everything. One name disagrees.
Dark Pool Buyers:
$QQQ +$1.61B (43 prints, BOTH TAPES AGREE)
$MU +$522M (34 prints, BOTH TAPES AGREE)
$IWM +$474M (15 prints, NEW on the dark pool)
$AMZN +$327M (9 prints, ZERO dark pool sells)
$AAPL +$205M (8 prints, ZERO dark pool sells)
$GOOGL +$170M (10 prints, ZERO dark pool sells)
$NVDA +$134M (9 prints, BOTH TAPES AGREE)
The Only Dark Pool Seller:
$SPY -$882M (38 prints, LIT TAPE: BUY +$1.69B)
Seven names on the buy side. One seller. The dark pool is overwhelmingly bullish today.
$AMZN, $AAPL, and $GOOGL all with zero dark pool sells. Pure one-directional accumulation off-exchange on three mega-caps. When three of the biggest names in the market have zero seller interest in the dark pools, that's institutional consensus.
$QQQ: +$1.61B in the dark pools. +$4.59B on the lit tape. Both tapes agree. The Nasdaq accumulation is happening across every venue.
$NVDA: +$134M in the dark pools. +$879M on the lit tape. Both tapes agree. For weeks $NVDA was being sold on both tapes. Now both are buying. The consensus is shifting.
$IWM appears in the dark pools for the first time at +$474M across 15 prints. The Russell 2000 being accumulated in the dark is a broadening signal. Small caps are showing up in institutional off-exchange flow.
The $SPY divergence: bought on the lit tape at +$1.69B. Sold in the dark pools at -$882M. This is the fourth time in five sessions the two tapes have disagreed on $SPY. Lit tape says buy the S&P. Dark pool says sell it. Four sessions is not an anomaly. It's a pattern.
When the two tapes agree on individual names but disagree on the broad index, it suggests the institutions want specific stocks but are hedging their overall market exposure in the dark.
The lit tape shows you what they're doing in public. The dark pool shows you what they're doing where they think nobody is watching.
Now you're watching.

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@stevelauda_ Thanks! We named him Cassian after Cassian Andor Starwars haha
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@rickmummery oh congrats, Rick! Happy for you!
What's the newborn name if you don't mind to share?
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