RJ

@intangiblecoins each cycle the number of metrics that lag/lead increase. just feel like there is room for improvement with these like LTH MVRV Z score or some cointime metrics to discount inactive supply

@rj_fulton_ this set is the metrics that consistently indicated bottoms at all prior cycles read the report about them here galaxy.com/insights/resea…

not that they all will (or need to) hit, but my bottoming scorecard is starting to fill up a bit more (SOPR is on there)

@mulvihill79 @Geo_papic

Final combined viewing on FOX + Telemundo: USA-BEL - 50.1 million viewers MEX-ENG - 46.7 million The most-watched non-NFL sports events in the U.S. since the 1994 Winter Olympics.

@_Checkmatey_ @TXMCtrades

While this #Bitcoin bear market hasn't been as severe in terms of drawdown from the all-time high compared to others, it is exerting pressure on a larger portion of the market than ever before When accounting for inactive BTC, the current Supply in Profit sits at only 28%, meaning more than 70% is currently holding a loss

@TXMCtrades @glassnode Appears to also be a pretty resilient group of holders

So much supply changed hands at the highs of the bull that, for the first time in $BTC's history, the percent of supply in loss has near perfect parity with the percent drawdown of price. Typically bears see a widening delta between these. This is likely a contributor to negative sentiment.

What do you say?? @_Checkmatey_

@TXMCtrades @_Checkmatey_ @glassnode Even worse then if it is cumulative

@rj_fulton_ @_Checkmatey_ @glassnode It's a cumulative stdev which is how the metric was originally designed.

As I long suspected, MVRV Z score set a notably lower high this cycle. I think this metric is toast, as constructed. My friend @_Checkmatey_ is probably right for instead looking at short term holder MVRV, or standard deviations of Realized Price.

@ProMint_X does KYC'ing allow users in blocked countries the ability to trade?

KYC on Polymarket soon Overall, this was an obvious move. Every CEX requires its users to pass KYC - that’s exactly why they operate globally and make hundreds of millions of dollars. Polymarket is blocked in the following countries: AU — Australia BE — Belgium BY — Belarus BI — Burundi CF — Central African Republic CD — Congo (Kinshasa) CU — Cuba DE — Germany ET — Ethiopia FR — France GB — United Kingdom IR — Iran IQ — Iraq IT — Italy JP — Japan KP — North Korea LB — Lebanon LY — Libya MM — Myanmar NI — Nicaragua NL — Netherlands PL — Poland RU — Russia SG — Singapore SO — Somalia SS — South Sudan SD — Sudan SY — Syria TH — Thailand TW — Taiwan UM — United States Minor Outlying Islands US — United States VE — Venezuela YE — Yemen ZW — Zimbabwe Do you really think the team won't sacrifice decentralization for the sake of these 37 countries and another potential $10B in volume? Even though Shayne talked about the importance of insiders who fine-tune market accuracy, he will easily give them up to capture new markets. The same goes for @mustafap0ly comments when he talked about the freedom of choice regarding KYC. Maybe KYC will just hang in the air for a while, but over time, using the platform and generating consistent, large profits will become impossible due to all sorts of restrictions and delays. Either way, KYC will be introduced whether you like it or not. Exploit the inefficiencies while you can, before the team completely bends to the government.

@ProMint_X is there something wrong with rewarding those who take on some level of risk to keep orderbooks liquid?

🎰 How Polymarket Forces You to Be Wrong Take a close look at the formula: wV = Trade Size × (1 − Entry Price) × Category Weight × Bonuses If you buy a safe, high-conviction outcome at 90¢ (90% probability), your multiplier is: $1 - 0.90 = 0.10$ (virtually nothing). But if you buy some wild degen outcome at 5¢ (5% probability), your multiplier is: $1 - 0.05 = 0.95$ (9.5x higher!). They’ve literally engineered a system where it’s mathematically most optimal to be wrong. To speedrun your way to the Obsidian tier, you are forced to constantly bet on long shots with a 5-10% chance of winning. Sure, your bets will go to zero 95% of the time, but you'll get a 50% rebate on your next trades!

@SheDrills @qthomp

If Trump banned oil exports, the US would be forced to run more light sweet which reduces the efficiency of our old refineries and only creates an even greater shortage of diesel & jet fuel. #OOTT

@TXMCtrades what if the chaos just consistently decreasing american hegemony that is glossed over by gradual but never ending currency debasement?

The unfortunate wrinkle for folks holding the "BTC will be a safe haven in chaos" view is that the circumstances are unlikely to be bullish until it is first incredibly fucking bearish beyond anything anyone who makes that case has ever seen. Then it's still a coin flip.

@MelMattison1 please run it back on the pod @fejau_inc

@_Checkmatey_ Time pain over?

24.6%

@TXMCtrades Probably explains why the network is a ghost town? Also concerning for the long haul with fees as low as they are

I wager what happens next is $BTC supply control continues being funneled into monolithic state-compliant entities and the marginal new investor maintains arms-length price exposure. Self custody will become even more niche. Derivatives and ETFs will gain more share vs spot. Bitcoin will grow further away from a role as money. /1

@TXMCtrades Gotta add in looming reduction in bill issuance too from recent treasury quarterly statement Looks like pain through tax season

IMO a lot of the pushback on CrossborderCap's claim that global liquidity has peaked is from folks who are using different data to inform "liquidity". Howell's framework is about DURATION which represents balance sheet capacity to roll debts. Most people point to M2 which DOES NOT show this, as most of its growth is from bank deposits and money market funds which have no duration, thus are largely "liquidity neutral". It's money in the system yes, but flows differently. The Fed's recent RMO policy of buying TBills is closer to duration-neutral also, until and unless they begin buying longer tenors like 2yr+ which they've hinted at. So recent Fed moves have had a very modest impact on liquidity measurements, far less than typical crisis QE. This is why people were wrong for saying QE was back. For "global liquidity" to expand in the CBC framework there needs to be a net reduction of duration in the market. On top of this, if the Fed embarks on converting its balance sheet more to TBills AND also wants to shift from MBS to treasuries (both ideas discussed by FOMC members and nominee Warsh) then it means the market has to absorb duration from the Fed, which is a net negative factor on liquidity in this same framework.

@TXMCtrades Do you believe howell’s suggested impact of liquidity on BTC is material

Hideous price action is the most effective cleanser of dogma ❌ #Bitcoin is digital gold ❌ Strategic Bitcoin Reserve ❌ The first crypto president ❌ TsyCo's infinite money glitch ❌ Passive flows will pump our bags ❌ Bull market hasn't started yet ❌ BTC vs Global M2 w random offset ❌ BTC vs Gold w random offset ❌ Liquidity about to moon ❌ QE is back Break em all, I say.

@TXMCtrades @fejau_inc probably should have been a ribbon but it was hiding behind AI capex as @fejau_inc been saying. Climbing above the mean also seems to mark the end of any recession (just crossed 0 by this data)

@fejau_inc That's what I'd assume but many of the accelerations are near the front of the ribbon where NBER dates the recession. Idk.

🚀👀

@polybacktest How far back dos historical data go?

> Give AI access to Polybacktest's API > Tell it to develop a strategy > Get it to backtest on btc up/down historical data via polybacktest > Iterate and improve the bot > Repeat step 3 and 4 until you have a profitable bot.