Woody Lu

Three weeks ago there were rumors that one of the labs had completed its largest ever successful training run, and that the model that emerged from it performed far above both internal expectations and what people assumed the scaling laws would predict. At the time these were only rumors, and no lab was attached to them. But in light of what we now know about Mythos, they look more credible, and the lab was probably Anthropic. Around the same time there were also rumors that one of the frontier labs had made an architectural breakthrough. If you are in enough group chats, you hear claims like this constantly, and most turn out to be nothing. But if Anthropic found that training above a certain scale, or in a certain way at that scale, produces capabilities that sit far above the prior trendline, then that is an architectural breakthrough. I think the leaked blog post was real, but still a draft. Mythos and Capybara were both candidate names for the new tier, though Mythos may now have enough mindshare that they end up keeping it. The specific rumor in early March was that the run produced a model roughly twice as performant as expected. That remains unconfirmed. What is confirmed is that Anthropic told Fortune the new model is a 'step change,' a sudden 2x would certainly fit the definition. We will find out in April how much of this is true. My own view is that the broad shape of this is correct even if some of the numbers are wrong. And if it is substantially accurate, then it also casts OpenAI's recent restructuring in a new light. If very large training runs are about to become essential to staying in the game, then a lot of their recent decisions, like dropping Sora, make even more sense strategically. For the public, this would mean the best models in the world are about to become much more expensive to serve, and therefore much more expensive to use. That will put pressure on rate limits, pricing, and subscription plans that are already subsidized to some unknown degree. Instead of becoming too cheap to meter, frontier intelligence may be about to become too expensive for most of humanity to afford. Second-order effects; compute, memory, and energy are about to become much more important than they already are. In the blog they describe the new model as not just an improvement, but having 'dramatically higher scores' than Opus 4.6 in coding and reasoning, and as being 'far ahead' of any other current models. If this is the new reality, then scale is about to become king in a whole new way. It would also mean, as usual, that Jensen wins again.

马斯克据悉将SpaceX IPO时机定在6月中旬，因6月会有3年多来首次金木合相（金星与木星在天空中运行至极其接近的位置）以及马斯克的生日（6月28日）。 SpaceX此次IPO计划融资最高约500亿美元，对应估值约1.5万亿美元，远超2019年沙特阿美290亿美元的募资规模纪录。

Did you know about the opusplan model in Claude Code? /model opusplan It's a hybrid alias that automatically uses Opus in plan mode for complex reasoning, then switches to Sonnet for execution. Best of both worlds: Opus thinks, Sonnet builds

The divergence in the last few months has been incredible. Under a normal distribution, that's a one-in-1.7 trillion event. Of course markets are fat-tailed — but even by fat-tail standards, this is off the map. Prior peak was 4σ in 2003. (2/3)