Kapil roy

AI inference cost (which we pay in dollars) may rival our oil import bill and blow up our current account deficit. Great post on that below. What is the solution? I believe that high developer productivity can be achieved without the high AI inference bill. We have to invent our way out of trouble. Stay tuned.

@thechartist26 Entered at 1030 Sl day low Size around 8%

Sai Life Mother of all shakeouts

@LearningEleven Excited for the next week. One thing ...duration is so long! 🙂

One habit I’ve consciously built is attending as many industry and investing events as possible. That’s often where you start picking up unique data points and connecting them to the bigger picture, which in turn helps identify new ideas or strengthens conviction in existing ones. For example, Akshay Jogani @kshayjogani once presented MTAR Technologies at an IAS event, and that 20-minute session completely changed my perspective on the company. It made me dig deeper, and eventually MTAR became part of my portfolio. Similarly, a session on OBSC Perfection helped deepen my conviction and add to my existing position. The same happened with Dynamatic Technologies. I can quote several such examples, but the larger point is this: investing is ultimately a game of making meaningful money through high position sizing, and high position sizing comes from high conviction. That conviction often develops faster and stronger when you listen to smart people and absorb different perspectives. I attended the previous Investing Eleven Conclave as a listener. This time, I’ll be attending as a speaker. And when names like @suru27, @ishmohit1, @9onecapital, @DigantHaria speak, I become a student again. It should be a great day. Learn more and grow more!

@YourShami This information provides confidence. Holding this from avg. Rs. 142. PF Position size increased to 17% now.

@LearningEleven Sir, this is why the partial profit booking, positional trading with techno funda is the best method for me. In simple way, I usually trade in hot name technically.

Decadal Themes & Valuations - Grab a cup of Kauphy Whenever the market starts believing a narrative like “this is a decadal theme,” “this sector has 5-year tailwinds,” or “this company can grow at 50% CAGR,” it usually starts pricing in the next 2–3 years of growth much earlier. Look at chemical companies in 2022–23. The peak narrative back then was: “Chemicals are where IT was in the 2000s.” Then came the renewables boom. An EPC name like Waaree Renewable Technologies traded at ~250x TTM P/E in 2024. Around the same time, Oriana Power and Viviana Power Tech were trading well above 90x TTM P/E. The same thing happened with transformer companies. Transformers and Rectifiers (India) traded at nearly 300x TTM P/E, while several transformer names were commanding 60–70x earnings multiples. Again, the same phenomenon, markets started discounting the next 3 years of growth. That itself became the peak. Ironically, just a few years earlier, these EPC and transformer businesses were viewed as commodity businesses. Policy changes and industrial tailwinds changed everything. Traditional value investors disliked such valuations, and many never participated in these stories. But markets don’t care who participates and who doesn’t. When liquidity is abundant, at least one sector attracts a disproportionate share of it, provided there is a compelling story to sell. Then came the Data Center theme. A company like Anant Raj, despite multiple perceived red flags, received an 80x P/E valuation. Beyond constructing buildings, it arguably had zero moat in the DC story. Yet, investors who entered early still made serious money. Now, one could counter saying: “Sekhar, you can’t judge these companies using TTM P/E. You should look at forward valuations.” Absolutely correct. Investment decisions should always be based on forward earnings. I’m only highlighting how forward optimism eventually pushes TTM valuations into seemingly irrational territory. Currently, we are witnessing the same phase in the AI Data Center theme. MTAR Technologies, TD Power Systems, Aeroflex Industries, HFCL and Sterlite Technologies are all firing. DEE Development Engineers may join the club too if management clarifies that its HRSG order book has meaningful AI Data Center linkage. Each name now carries its own narrative: • TD Power - One of the few suppliers to select gas turbine OEMs, with capacities reportedly booked out for 4–5 years. • MTAR - AI Data Center players cannot wait endlessly for grid-scale infra or Gas based power, and Bloom Energy’s SOFC solutions offer a quicker alternative. MTAR’s “hot box” capability becomes the moat within that ecosystem. • Sterlite - Not just an optical fiber story; the company is also backward integrated. • HFCL - Optical fiber + defence + aerospace + preform backward integration over the next couple of years. • Aeroflex - Beyond certain power densities (>50kW), conventional cooling becomes inefficient, making liquid cooling increasingly relevant. Aeroflex supplies into that ecosystem, while capacities are also scaling up. If you’re wondering why I’m boring you with all this on a Saturday morning, it’s because investors need to view such themes through a different lens. Back in late 2023, I held Waaree RTL shares. I did some rough math on FY24 and FY25 earnings and concluded that the upside looked limited. I switched into another opportunity (don’t even remember which one now) that appeared to offer better upside. Waaree then went on to make a 7–8x move. Because of that experience, I avoided making the same mistake with Oriana and Viviana. I held them until price action itself started weakening. Similarly, I exited TD Power between ₹800–900 thinking most forward earnings were already captured. That experience is also why I am trying not to repeat the same mistake with MTAR and Sterlite. But at the same time, I didn’t jump into HFCL when some of my friends did, because my fundamental view on the company was still not fully aligned. I eventually entered only after the results gave me more confidence in the story. Sectoral tailwinds, especially global ones, can justify almost any valuation for a period of time. Our thinking is usually too linear. Because of that, either: We never participate in the story, or We exit far too early. Instead, ride the trend as long as possible. Track sector strength, monitor global developments, and use technicals for exits. Learn from your mistakes! Don’t rely only on fundamentals for exits because fundamentals often fail to capture non-linear themes. One big learning for me has been this: Sometimes you need to temporarily shed traditional valuation frameworks and participate in momentum-driven themes. That is where either you need technical analysis skills yourself, or at least a friend who understands them well. And that’s the beauty of the market, such themes keep emerging every 2-3 years, and even if you identify them halfway through, riding them for long enough can still become your ticket to creating meaningful wealth. Happy Saturday!

@thechartist26 Sir, auto ancillary is not over yet .

Power & proxies Metals Piping theme Wires & Cables Defence Capital Markets Pharma i will wait for all round move - selective it is

@shiladitya4u 😁 well said, I am put behind my brain and still holding Sterlite and hfcl..

" leave your brains behind" Just like when you go to see a masala movie, People say " leave your brains behind" If you want to make money in these markets, You should do the same. Don't think !! 😀😀😀

@YourShami Yes, strong bounce above 200 dma. Chart looks interesting

DMCC Speciality Chemicals Ltd #DMCC Yes, most of them guess correct. The Story of "Sulfuric Acid (H₂SO₄)" This company operates in two segments: specialty chemicals and bulk chemicals. Under the bulk chemicals segment, sulfuric acid contributes the major share. Sulfuric acid alone contributes around 35–40% of the business, and the interesting part is that the company sells its products in the open market. If you observe the trend, whenever sulfuric acid prices peak, the stock price also tends to make new highs. It looks like that cycle is now starting to play out again. Currently, sulfuric acid prices are trading near all-time highs, up around 22% on a quarter-on-quarter basis and more than 40% year-on-year on average. Disc: Info for edu.

@shiladitya4u Woh! Big achievement. Beating all the indices every time 👏

What a close to FY26 !! Not sure how but I managed to close FY26 with 20% profits!! 😇😇 Completed 5 years of tracking portfolio: FY22 to FY26 5-year CAGR = 43.67% (Smallcap index: 15.50%) Cumulative returns ~ 510% (Smallcap index: 105%) Big thanks to X community 🙏🙏

@shiladitya4u Sir, how far! Looks super extended!

Market is going crazy about AI proxies. Now, HFCL being taken to the moon ............. khelo India khelo 😂😂😂

@YourShami Nice observation

During the Trump 2.0 regime, every major fall has turned out to be a big opportunity. Whenever the market falls, the bounce-back has been even stronger within a very short period of time. In many cases, the recovery move has been almost double the size of the fall itself. As you can see in the chart below, this pattern has already played out twice within just 1.5 years. So historically, during Trump-led market phases, every sharp fall has often turned into an opportunity.

@LearningEleven Is it online?

Investing Eleven Conclave 2.0 on 17th May I will see you there!

@YourShami Big potential

Jeena Sikho Lifecare Ltd #JSLL What the market is missing ? ① OTC Optionality — Under-modelled Street expectations are already moving towards ~250 Cr. OTC potential by FY28, but the actual optionality can be significantly larger. The company has rapidly expanded distribution, entered new topical OTC categories, and is building a portfolio with structurally better margins compared to prescription products. If execution continues at the current pace, OTC itself can become a major standalone value creator over the next few years. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ② Capital-Light Diagnostics #Chandan_Diagnostics The diagnostics business has the potential to create a ~50 Cr. annual revenue stream with almost zero incremental capex. Since the ecosystem, lab partnerships, and collection infrastructure are already in place, scaling becomes highly efficient from here. This is the kind of expansion that improves operating leverage without putting pressure on the balance sheet. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ③ Insurance Tailwind — Silent Re-rating Trigger A structural shift is happening in reimbursement behaviour. Treatments and day-care procedures that were previously ignored are now increasingly getting insurance acceptance. This improves affordability for patients, increases treatment continuity, and can meaningfully improve demand visibility. Markets are still underestimating how powerful this change can become over time. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ④ Governance Upgrade Statutory auditor Walker Chandiok (GT, Big 5), internal auditor Forvis Mazars (World #7), ERP migrated to Oracle, CRM live on Salesforce. In a sector rife with unorganised family-run clinics, this is a material re-rating trigger as institutional allocators have historically discounted the category. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⑤ UAE Insurance Expansion The company’s positioning in UAE creates access to a premium-paying patient base with better realization and higher ARPU. Insurance-backed acceptance of alternative medicine is improving steadily, which opens a much larger monetisation opportunity. This international optionality is still not fully reflected in market expectations. Some Key Triggers: ① Entero distribution partnership. Exclusive Ayurveda distribution tie-up with Entero Healthcare (Jan 2026). Opens up 1.25 lakh chemist network nationwide. Instant national footprint that would have cost JSLL 5 years and ₹200 Cr+ to build. Revenue potential: ₹150-300 Cr in FY27 if even 20% of 16 SKUs achieve meaningful retail velocity. Entero's track record with Emami and similar brands is the sanity check. ② Bed capacity scale-up to 5,800. Current: 2,850 built / 2,290 operational. Target: 5,800 beds by FY28 across owned + franchisee + college-partnership models. Capex-light (₹34 lakh/bed vs allopathy's ₹70L-1Cr). If mature-cohort occupancy of 80% holds, 5,800 beds at ₹8,500 ARPOB generates ~₹1,440 Cr service revenue alone — 10x current. Plus medicine cross-sell follows proportionately. Disc: Info for educations. @manikanth2304 @LearningEleven if you are also tracking this company, please share the key points of your thesis in case I have missed anything here.

@Prakashplutus Is it relevant for a full time trader with more than 2 cr portfolio?

🚨 Hard Truth Every Investor/ Trader Must Hear: Never build your lifestyle on stock market income. Trading profits are mostly Lumpy. Unpredictable. Can vanish overnight. Your rent, EMIs, groceries , School Fee , bills ? Brutally consistent., Every single month. Live on your SALARY or business cashflow. 
Let the market build your wealth — not fund your lifestyle creep. This one mindset has saved more portfolios than any strategy. Telling you with my personal experience. You can retweet, it will not hurt you and it may help few people around you 😊 #Investing #StockMarket @plutusadvisors @preetiplutus