@DurableCreators It was always expensive alright.. don't remember a recent time when it was cheap. Another $rol lol.
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Sal Mumtaz
2.6K posts
@sal13836 Yeah probably a few things like healthcare being out of favor, maybe some tariffs and also rising semiconductor prices, some fear about GLP-1s even though procedures associated with conditions GLP-1s help with are a single digit % of sales. Plus it was rather expensive at 50-60x.
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Intuitive Surgical $ISRG is starting to pique my interest. Not cheap, but *cheapest* multiple since 2022. Incredible moat, kind of like a more dominant version of IDEXX Labs - growing an installed base and selling recurring consumables. Anyone else looking at it?
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@DD17_Capital @invest091 It's currently about 19% below the 10 yr median multiple of 53.. and last time Rollins traded near the current multiple is around 2017 March. That's a long gap. It's rare to see this one coming down though.
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@DD17_Capital @invest091 It will be a miracle if it comes to that level 😂
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Imho Rollins is a quality business and it’s been on my buy list for a while. But since I found it, it always looked too expensive to me.
Now that’s slowly starting to change and we’re not that far away from a price where I’d seriously consider buying.
$ROL
Daniel's Deep Dive@DD17_Capital
My Deep Dive on Rollins is finally out! It might look boring at first glance but it’s one of the highest-quality businesses I’ve seen in a long time. What makes Rollins a true quality compounder and when it might be worth investing you can find out in the article. $ROL $RTO
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Does this look like a dying company to you?
60% market share
18%+ earnings growth
12% organic rev growth
Main AI product growing 75%
94%+ subscription retention rate
50+ standalone apps, 20 bundled together
50% of users work at enterprises with 10k+ employees
$ADBE -8%
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$VST is not your grandfather's utility.
41 GW of generation capacity. Nuclear, natural gas, renewables. Plus a retail arm serving ~5M customers under brands like TXU Energy.
They generate the power AND sell it directly. The integration is the moat.
10-YR FCF Yield Median: 5.36%
TTM FCF Yield: 3.89%, below median, down from a ~14% peak in 2022
TTM Revenue Growth: 7.4%, reaccelerating after years of choppiness
The market has re-rated this as an AI power infrastructure play. The valuation reflects it.
Is the FCF Yield compression justified or has the stock simply gotten ahead of the cash flow?
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@GibbyCapital Yea, about that disclaimer , it felt weird to me too.
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@sal13836 Mw is a bit of a weird one. I don't really like how they behave. They even disclose they intend to cover the majority of their position immediately after their report drops...presumably because they know their report will drop the price...sounds like price manipulation but idk
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definitely hunterbrook's least convincing short report by a long way
Hunterbrook@hntrbrkmedia
Based on Hunterbrook Media’s reporting, Hunterbrook Capital is short $ENSG and long a basket of comparable securities at the time of publication. Positions may change at any time. This article is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Hunterbrook Media is collaborating with organizations like law firms including Hunterbrook Law to pursue reform based on this reporting. See full disclosures on our website.
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For the record, i really like and respect their work. I just think this is pretty weak.
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The top 10 opportunities in the market today, imo. Based on expected CAGR x Durability x Valuation. What would you add or remove?
$AMZN AWS, ads, retail margins, silicon
$MSFT Azure. O365 stickier than feared
$SPGI duopoly. AI risk overblown.
$MA global cashless, network effect
$V similar to V. Both are GARP.
$SYK massive demographic tailwinds
$ICE wide moats for critical data
$META foremost beneficiary of ai and new business formation
$LIN mission critical and under appreciated capex beneficiary.
$AVUV strong economy, 50% multiple discount to $SPY for similar or excess growth
None of the ideas below made the cut
Blake@DDBlakeFischer
Some new ideas I haven’t bought, but look like good entries. Ranked in order: Home Depot $HD Lowe’s $LOW Thermo Fisher $TMO McDonald’s $MCD Danaher $DHR Broadridge $BR Pool Corp $POOL Dominos Pizza $DPZ LVMH $LVMH.TO Any strong takes? Think any are sure winners long-term or clear losers?
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@DurableCreators All these mentioned obstacles had been there for so long. V/MA has insane adaptability and even made giants like apple, meta to drop the battle. For me, I'm happy to own a fortress like visa. I view it as a place for parking cash safely and best ways to beat inflation.
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I think my verdict is, while they probably continue to grow at respectable rates, I'm not sure I can confidently hold against the growing list of challenges. But it's worth emphasizing these companies aren't even hitting an inflection point where grow stalls/declines, still LDD.
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To summarize the $V/$MA headwinds I've noted (not all are equal magnitude):
Legislation and regulation (esp. CCCA in US)
Ex-US domestic networks
Regional collaboration (ex. SE Asia Nexus)
Stablecoins
BNPL
Agentic commerce
Counterpoint:
They're continuing to grow LDD top line
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Everyone chases the perfect entry point.
But from 1991–2020, buying the exact high every year still got you +7.4%/yr.
Buying the low: +8.4%/yr.
Discipline > timing.
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@CapstackCapital @invest091 I think growth normalisation caught many people off guard. I was a big fan too...but after some research, I personally feel their SAM may not be that big.. $xyl and $vlto could be better bets imo
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@invest091 It’s been a name I have followed on n off for like 10 years now but am def going to have to dig in deeper! What’s the link to the podcast episode?
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What is everyone's thoughts on $BMI at 16x LTM EBITDA currently? Share Px -51% LTM (-28% YTD).
Seems like a great play on water, especially with accelerating water demand attributable to data centers. Performance appears at trough levels with a relatively flat FY26 and revenue growth re-accelerating to 8% in FY27.
Trough levels w/ favorable multiple + steady grower + income + end-market tailwinds
What am I missing? Anyone have thoughts? @Groundwork_HQ - I believe you have discussed it before.
Are companies like $XYL $VLTO just that much better?
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@invest091 I've heard their retention rates were one of the few that beat even $cost too. But for all this, you need to pay the price and have the patience 🙂
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Kinda wild that over 90% of $CTAS revenue comes from recurring contracts (uniforms, facility services, safety products) with retention rates north of 90% too.
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@sal13836 It continues to be my longest tenured watch list company 😂
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Just counted mine after seeing this. 26 on the watch list right now (27 after $HONA clears its June 29th unlock, sample screenshot below).
Every one of them either ran through the quality screener checklist or earned a spot from a prior podcast episode. A few are momentum names I’m tracking. None are random.
The goal is building a universe of ~50 businesses you actually know, so when price and story align, you’re ready to act.
Will Biddy@WillBiddy_
90% of X “gurus” or “investors” do very little research. My watchlist is less than 30 stocks. More than 20 of them have been on my watchlist for over 2 years. I continually look at and follow the best businesses I can find. Then I jump in when the price and story look right.
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@dcurras1 @DurableCreators @Invesquotes has done fantastic work on $stvn. One of the best deep dives!
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@DurableCreators Missed Wst at the bottom. Kicking myself for it tbh when i wanted diversification in healthcare.
Stvn thesis new for me. Looks interesting, narrative seems to drive stock price indeed 👀
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Digging into $WST $STVN for fill & finish exposure, and $DHR $RGEN on the bioprocessing side.
Current thoughts :
Nikotes@dcurras1
So many healthcare ideas (ex. Pharma) across the board but not enough conviction so far. $MEDP $WST $LONN $DIM $TMO $ENSG etc. $ISRG $BSX (good but crazy expensive) $IDXX (maybe 👀) $DHR (only long mainly due to DBS + mgmt ) Covid bubble did not help. Theses are welcomed.
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@FinanceJack44 Are you 100% sure this equity offering is legit news? 🙂
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I'm not a fan of $META diluting here.
$GOOGL makes more sense because their stock had gotten fairly expensive. They are diluting at 26x OCF while $META would be diluting around 12x OCF.
That's a pretty big difference...
I think they will probably do just fine with the money (if they choose to do it), but at first glance I don't like this idea.
Why not cut the dividend and take FCF to zero first?
Finance Jack@FinanceJack44
This could send $META below $500 if it happens. The only reason $META is cheap right now is because investors are fearful that Meta is lighting money on fire, without a clear ROI in the near term. This would substantially increase that fear...
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