Gibby Capital

@altcap @elonmusk @Tesla @SpaceX

You are smarter than this Ro. Imagine if Bernie had taxed @elonmusk 100% on his PayPal capital gains. We would have no @Tesla or @SpaceX - none of those jobs or GDP. Who do you think allocated the capital better for society? He will already pay $100 B + in taxes - more than any human ever. I hope he donates some to kids via @TrumpAccounts to make every kid a shareholder in 🇺🇸 & continues investing all his heart, soul & money for the benefit of America & all humanity! 🇺🇸🚀🤍

@chamath please shut the fuck up

completely lost in the news cycle of the day, but this is a great feat and jimmy and jeff housenbold (ceo of beast industries) deserves a lot of credit. jimmy has well more than 1B followers across all platforms and they are building disney 2.0

@ariaradnia What about adobe being "cheaper than a sack of potatoes" at $350

The simplest IQ test for investors is what your opinion of $V and $MA are

$ABVX seems to have (in the last hour or so?) quietly released a new corporate deck with 3 important slides at the end. All, in my opinion, providing strong new information showing that these cancer cases were unrelated to drug and equivalent to expected background noise. Most important is the slide on the 2 non-nonmelanoma skin cancers. BOTH of these were more indolent, low/intermediate subtypes of their respective cancer (prostate and breast). Not only does this mean that the cancers are less threatening, it also means that THEY ARE SLOWER GROWING CANCERS. Why is this particularly important? Because it means that the development of the cancers very (very) likely PREDATES THEIR ENROLLMENT IN THE TRIAL. Look into the doubling times of grade 2 (Gleason 7) prostate cancer and grade 2 NST breast carcinoma. These are slow-growing tumors that very likely existed before these patients ever even had a dose of obefazimod. That relates to another key finding on this slide - the prostate cancer case was identified via PSA screening at 8.5 months into the study (remember earlier is better). In the Guggenheim conference they had said it was confirmed at day 367...they must have been referring to the biopsy confirmation of the subtype, not PSA confirmation of the prostate cancer diagnosis. This new information speaks to an earlier diagnosis. The breast cancer patient was diagnosed even earlier than that! Only 6.8 months of Obe exposure. Also, these new slides give us actual information on the prior drug exposures - before this afternoon we knew that they were on some prior treatments, but we didn't know what...THE PROSTATE CANCER WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED TO ***5*** DRUGS WITH LABELED CANCER WARNINGS BEFORE ENROLLING IN THE STUDY! 3 OF THEM HAD ***BLACK BOX WARNINGS*** FOR CANCER RISK! -Humira (black box) -Infliximab (black box) -Rinvoq (black box) -Entyvio (warnings and precautions) -Stelara (warnings and precautions) We also just got new info on the NMSC cases (which matter far less but which spooked the market anyway). How you can look at the details of these skin cancer cases and think they are related to the drug is beyond me (but then again, these details just got released - quietly, for some reason). First of all, ***ALL OF THE 4 50MG CASES OF NMSC OCCURED IN 6 MONTHS OR LESS!!! Again, too rapid to be reasonably assumed drug-related. The fact that they all happened in the first half of this study is actually extremely exculpating evidence for $ABVX. Other details: -4/5 were 60+ years old (STRONGLY associated with skin cancer risk) -3/5 had PRIOR SKIN CANCER ALREADY(!!!!!) -4/5 had prior exposure to other drugs that are known to increase skin cancer risk. Finally, they also added a slide discussing that some studies have shown the elevated risks of these cancers for UC patients at baseline. -~5x higher risk of prostate cancer in IBD patients -~2x higher risk of breast cancer in IBD patients Why did $ABVX add these 3 slides to the corporate deck randomly, silently, on a Friday afternoon? IDK. Legitimately good news in those slides! I'd have pressed released this info as soon as I had it, because the details really help alleviate the (already statistically misguided) concern that these cancers could've been caused by Obefazimod. Here's the link: ir.abivax.com/static-files/e…

@sal13836 Mw is a bit of a weird one. I don't really like how they behave. They even disclose they intend to cover the majority of their position immediately after their report drops...presumably because they know their report will drop the price...sounds like price manipulation but idk

@sal13836 Yeah I read their report yesterday. Was even less convincing than Hunterbrook's tbf, but yes another very famous short seller. Interesting.

definitely hunterbrook's least convincing short report by a long way

@waterboystocks @Ryan25112625 They should get them back on the phone and beg. No way they get an offer that good again

@GibbyCapital @Ryan25112625 Yeah, but the FCC licences are worth something. Probably around $50 million. Saga rejected a roughly $190 million bid from Connoisseur Media in 2022

$SGA is now trading at $8.91 with GAAP book value at $23.30, so P/B of 0.38x. Conservatively, book value is probably around $15. Market cap is $56.6 million. Enterprise value is $31.2 million. Cash of $30.4 million and long-term debt of $5 million. In 2022, Gate City was buying shares at $20 and had a fair value of $30. They about doubled their position in Q4 2024, haven't sold a single share since, and currently own 13.6% of the company. This could be a good "coattail riding" opportunity. Buffett coined this term in his 1962 partnership letter -- "Many times generals represent a form of 'coattail riding' where we feel the dominating stockholder group has plans for the conversion of unprofitable or under-utilized assets to a better use. We have done that ourselves in Sanborn and Dempster, but everything else equal we would rather let others do the work. Obviously, not only do the values have to be ample in a case like this, but we also have to be careful whose coat we are holding." Gate City has been constructive with Saga, writing them a long email in March 2025: sec.gov/Archives/edgar… They want Saga to stop wasting money and management time on digital ads, sell the "Saga House" which is a luxury Florida beach residence, fix compensation, and get back to running a tight, profitable radio company while returning cash to owners. While they've yet to sell the Saga House or ditch the digital ad business, they did sell 22 tower sites for $10.7 million in Oct 2025 and repurchased 2.8% of shares outstanding in a single privately negotiated transaction announced on Dec 15, 2025. Gate City, as a 13.6% shareholder, reduces the risk of management impairing intrinsic value to a significant degree. This fact, paired with a cheap price, provides a nice margin of safety.

@lazereater I haven't looked at it in a while but i have them long term being the number 3 player in pouches after zyn and velo with about 10% share at full maturity. They've sort of fallen into a cool marketing niche now. I kinda like it but I still haven't started a position

Where are we going with $tpb? The nicotine market manufactures’ revenue in the US is ~$100B and ~$500B globally. How much of that will nicotine pouches, the most convenient and least harmful nicotine media, ultimately take and how much share of that will $tpb get? Please share.

@waterboystocks @Ryan25112625 so it's trading at a tiny discount to tbv? seems fair for a dying business?

"We also continue to evaluate our nonproductive assets with the intent of monetizing those assets at a value that is higher than is recognized in Saga's stock price... As reported in the fourth quarter, we sold excess land at one of our Iowa tower sites for a little over $200,000. And at the end of this quarter, we sold our old studio site in Springfield, Mass, for approximately $500,000." -- CFO Sam Bush on Q1 earnings call The assets are more specialized but likely more than a handful of potential buyers -- wirelessestimator.com/top-100-us-tow… Valuing the land, buildings, and towers at cost, and the equipment at nothing, would put their tangible assets (ex cash) at $76.6 million. Adding cash of $30.4 million equals $107 million. Subtract all liabilities of $49.7 million, and the net tangible asset value is $57.3 million.

@Marsgains1 pain

@GibbyCapital He sent that tweet on Sunday. SPX was trading at 7384. Today SPX is at 7291. I believe 7291 is lower than 7384 but idk

Bad day to be a Situational Awareness hater

@ariaradnia nah

$APP is undervalued.

@waterboystocks @Ryan25112625 How many of the tangible assets will actually be able to be sold at or above book value? Surely, a lot of the assets are specialised and, therefore, likely only have a handful of possible buyers in the world?

Cash flow has been positive for the last five years: 2021: $19.1 million 2022: $17.9 million 2023: $15.4 million 2024: $13.8 million 2025: $5.5 million Total gross assets are valued at $144.3 million: $13.5 million of land, $41.5 million of buildings, $21.6 million of towers and antennae, $56.7 million of equipment, $8.4 million of furniture, fixtures, leasehold improvements, and $2.7 million of vehicles, minus accumulated depreciation of $97.9 million, gives a net property and equipment of $46.4 million. The books show depreciating assets, but in reality, land, buildings, and towers tend to appreciate over time. Using the unadjusted $46.4 million net property and equipment figure, tangible book value is $42.8 million. These assets are not irrelevant. Adding net cash of $25.4 million equals $68.2 million, 120.5% of the current market cap. Throw in for more than free at the moment are FCC licenses, which are valued at $90 million on the balance sheet. Conservatively discount them by half ($45 million) due to management's inability to turn things around in the face of intense competition. Altogether, an investor can currently buy the company for $56.6 million while getting roughly $113 million in asset value (cash + tangible assets + conservatively valued licenses).

@BigIdeasCapital @HiddenGemsInves he has a list of suppsed "hidden gems" but chooses to write about all the shit ones ig

@HiddenGemsInves So far all I've seen is your calls on gliba, where malone tried to screw shareholders Logc where they diluting the hell out of rights holders with crazy valuations And some rolex retail thing that looks ridiculous

Someone told me you can't find quality companies under $500M market cap. I showed him a list. 20-30% ROICs. 40%+ market shares. Excellent owner-operators. Zero analyst coverage. He said he'd never heard of any of them. That's the point. That’s Hidden Gems Investing.

$cbrl is a short no?

@duedillengence @SayNoToTrading If you read what he said, he requested 500

@SayNoToTrading What did you request? If you requested 100 shares that’s awful. If you requested 10,000 shares it’s a good sign.

For all you buffoons who missed Bloom Energy $BE and/or the distributed energy stocks $CAT, $CMI, $GEV, and $GNRC, you're going to want to read this. ERock $EROC IPO is tomorrow. ERock sells low-emission, quick-response natural gas generator tech. Of interest to most of you dumb degens is their data center demand, obviously. $1.3 billion backlog, up 780% YoY. There is customer and geographic concentration. No profits. Newer CEO from 2025 so that's not great, either. Now to be clear, this is not the next $BE so not suggesting that. We're not talking proprietary fuel cells or anything too special. Nonetheless, might be an interesting IPO. The bad news is it priced at $21.50 which is right in-between the $20-23 range. Not a great sign, though might be due to the minus 5% on the Qs today and Friday, so they're pricing conservatively. Valuation of around $5B with $600M raised. I confirmed my indication of interest for 500 shares but whenever I get allocated more than a 100, it's almost always a bad sign, neutral at best. Will report back how much $EROC stock I get tomorrow, if any. Oh and I too am a buffoon who missed Bloom, up until Dec 17th when I got those for $80. Not that I hadn't followed company for years but just remained super skeptical, given their horrendous history. They got lucky and stumbled upon use case, not the other way around.

$alch yippee

@SayNoToTrading @fivepointscap nah

@fivepointscap Justified IMO

Pretty crazy that $AVGO and $NVDA are below their October highs 8 months of flat returns during the greatest semiconductor rally of all-time

@Marsgains1 Holy shit this is so painful

@Marsgains1 oh myb, a 1% down move is very painful so makes sense that you'd point that out

@Marsgains1 We are now flat since he said this week would be pain