
Santhosh Narayan
167 posts

Santhosh Narayan
@santhoshnarayan
@joinearlybird. prev balyasny @morganstanley @mit



a much larger issue here is that both kalshi and polymarket report volume on notional, not actual dollars traded if you buy a 1% chance for 1 cent it shows up as $1 volume! prediction markets are potentially misreporting volumes by 100x, not 2x


TODAY, 10 AM PT We’re live with @santhoshnarayan of @joinearlybird - the team bringing IPO prediction markets onchain. Tune in.





Two minutes to go, and Arch Manning has brought some hope back to Texas. Back from 1% odds all the way up to 15% on @Kalshi.



Prediction Markets going full circle again and it’s genuinely no surprise, especially in a capital based market like crypto. Why I say full circle again is because, fundamentally almost every financial niche is based on predictions, if you long/short crypto or a stock, you’re indirectly predicting price going up or down. So it’s definitely not a new niche. Sports betting is another example of existing prediction markets where you bet on a specific side winning, drawing or losing but now it’s taking a more sophisticated approach. Polymarket is obviously the current leader esp when viewed from an onchain perspective but we’re starting to see more and more projects launch prediction markets with features where you can participate and get upside by simply betting Yes or No on real life events you have strong views and opinions on. I think Prediction Markets taking a stronghold across major markets esp crypto is also a major step in everything becoming tokenized. You could make a bet on anything vs anything, then gradually we’re gonna start seeing more topics being hedged against crypto assets like stablecoins. Also imagine finding a prediction market for a topic you’re almost expert level on and the only platform offering it is blockchain based, as a normie - you’re going to want to get onchain as fast as possible.


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GM 🌞 $OPEN folks Have a great day












