Santhosh Narayan

167 posts

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Santhosh Narayan

Santhosh Narayan

@santhoshnarayan

@joinearlybird. prev balyasny @morganstanley @mit

New York, NY Katılım Ocak 2011
6.4K Takip Edilen2.5K Takipçiler
Santhosh Narayan
Santhosh Narayan@santhoshnarayan·
any standardized style of reporting is fine imo, the resulting take rate will just be lower if you choose to standardize on a higher volume last i checked, kalshi's fee structure is nonlinear, though. the take rate on 1% likelihood mkt traded < take rate on a 50/50 mkt trading, which tbh seems pretty good. re: selling a 1c position for 2c and reporting $1 volume both times, i think its also probably okay. when you sold for 2c, you're charged the fee as if you bought for 98c (both sides pay the same fee rate iirc bc they use a factor of 1-likelihood in the fee rate calc) yes this all makes casino reporting and exchange reporting harder to compare but thats okay - theyre not the same and we can do the analysis / math lol not sure how fee rebates are/will be documented for calculating final take rates but this is again the case for most exchanges
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jez (equity perps era)
jez (equity perps era)@izebel_eth·
here is my underlying issue with the reporting: if you go to a casino, and risk $100 on a 1-100 payout, your volume is still $100, not $10k by including totally passive tail ask volume they obfuscate the actual retail taker interest in the platform, by up to 100x
jez (equity perps era) tweet media
jez (equity perps era)@izebel_eth

a much larger issue here is that both kalshi and polymarket report volume on notional, not actual dollars traded if you buy a 1% chance for 1 cent it shows up as $1 volume! prediction markets are potentially misreporting volumes by 100x, not 2x

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Dustin Gouker
Dustin Gouker@DustinGouker·
Here are the top 20 markets at Kalshi over the trailing seven days
Dustin Gouker tweet media
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Sam Bhagwat
Sam Bhagwat@calcsam·
icymi we wrote a new agents book: patterns for building ai agents it has everything you need to take your agents from prototype to production, like agent design patterns, the basics of security, etc reply to this tweet with BOOK and we'll dm you so you can get a copy
Sam Bhagwat tweet media
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Ben Lang
Ben Lang@benln·
Rebooting my X group chat for people who like to build on Sundays. One rule: you can only post in the chat on Sundays. Let me know if you want in.
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Santhosh Narayan retweetledi
ChartFu猴子
ChartFu猴子@ChartFu·
Very excited to see @joinearlybird launch I really wanna trade private equity like Phantom and similar companies
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Gwart
Gwart@GwartyGwart·
I have a phantom wallet and 4 SOL, how do I invest on the bleeding edge of robotics
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ren (wassie arc)
ren (wassie arc)@0xren_cf·
solana users may not know what ledger is
ren (wassie arc) tweet media
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Evie
Evie@0xgingergirl·
If you are in the Prediction Market space (building, trading, blogging) and are NewYork based, say hi in the comments. Im making an event in nyc for the PM people. Who should we invite?
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Jonah
Jonah@JonahBlake·
Big moves happening around Pre-ipo synthetics that are mapping estimated share price to a token trading it. There are some issues around that. they trade sorta like memes and vibes. That also means upside in chaos @ventuals and @joinearlybird coded
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Santhosh Narayan retweetledi
Earlybird
Earlybird@joinearlybird·
Why we’re building Pre-IPO Prediction Markets on @solana: • Tokenization of everything = culture • Markets feel instant, like trading on Robinhood but onchain • Transaction costs are fractions of a cent - retail traders don’t tolerate $10 “gas fees” • Solana degens already think in “price discovery” • Strong ecosystem of retail-first apps, not just DeFi whales, but actual mass users looking for pre-IPO exposure
Earlybird tweet media
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Mippo 🟪
Mippo 🟪@MikeIppolito_·
Interesting that no one remotely suspects AI of being a bubble but everyone is calling the crypto top daily
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Santhosh Narayan retweetledi
signüll
signüll@signulll·
would be amazing if they just outright banned everything but autonomous vehicles on certain nyc streets… hell, roll it out in every town. i can’t stand how the regulatory agenda is 10 years behind. we need live experimental platforms in every dimension from city govt’s to rocket launches.
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Andy
Andy@andyyy·
Non-consensus bets for the rest of 2025: Private credit DeFi options protocols Fixed income NFTs L2s Memes What else am I missing?
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Deji
Deji@dejixyz·
Companies offering Prediction Markets - @Polymarket - @MyriadMarkets - @sportfun - @BetOnBluff_io - @meleemarkets - @trylimitless - @noise_xyz - @xodotmarket Gonna make another post going deeper into each of them
Deji@dejixyz

Prediction Markets going full circle again and it’s genuinely no surprise, especially in a capital based market like crypto. Why I say full circle again is because, fundamentally almost every financial niche is based on predictions, if you long/short crypto or a stock, you’re indirectly predicting price going up or down. So it’s definitely not a new niche. Sports betting is another example of existing prediction markets where you bet on a specific side winning, drawing or losing but now it’s taking a more sophisticated approach. Polymarket is obviously the current leader esp when viewed from an onchain perspective but we’re starting to see more and more projects launch prediction markets with features where you can participate and get upside by simply betting Yes or No on real life events you have strong views and opinions on. I think Prediction Markets taking a stronghold across major markets esp crypto is also a major step in everything becoming tokenized. You could make a bet on anything vs anything, then gradually we’re gonna start seeing more topics being hedged against crypto assets like stablecoins. Also imagine finding a prediction market for a topic you’re almost expert level on and the only platform offering it is blockchain based, as a normie - you’re going to want to get onchain as fast as possible.

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Ryan Carson
Ryan Carson@ryancarson·
Who's in NYC and is really into AI and dev?
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