scott ferguson

11.5K posts

scott ferguson

@scotub

There are things known and there are things unknown, and in between are the doors of perception. Doubt is the origin of wisdom. CSO @KascaidInc

somewhere in WNY Katılım Şubat 2010

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scott ferguson@scotub·24 Nis

1) A lot of people are focused on answering the question, "how can we cure cancer?" I think that's an extremely noble pursuit, but I side heavily w/ the sentiments of this article: "The cancer miracle isn't a cure, it's prevention" I recommend you read it! hsph.harvard.edu/magazine/magaz…

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scott ferguson@scotub·2d

@erikcorry The excess deaths are in early 2020, which implies many many people infected already by early 2020, which implies many people infected by late 2019. When in 2019 were the first people likely infected? This is a question answerable by math.

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Erik@erikcorry·3d

@scotub There's absolutely nothing in that Economist link about excess deaths in 2019. What are you even taking about?

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scott ferguson@scotub·3d

If you think SARs-CoV-2 wasn’t already spreading by the end of October, and perhaps as early as September 2019 — then you’re either unaware of the hidden excess mortality data, or… (1/2)

Holtz@Biorealism

@DrJBhattacharya @BallouxFrancois It does seem difficult to reconcile with excess mortality data per @scotub. Data sources here. economist.com/graphic-detail…. See also Mai He and Lucia Dunn's analysis pointing to September or October 2019. @R_H_Ebright papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cf…

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scott ferguson@scotub·2d

@WesleyP65443 Math from me an others say October is most likely. Maybe I’d believe your claim more if it was based on math instead of vibes.

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John@WesleyP65443·2d

@scotub Infected people wouldn’t have just been flying out of Wuhan. They would have been traveling all over China. Covid spread too quickly and was too deadly for large numbers of cases to go unnoticed.

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scott ferguson@scotub·3d

@WesleyP65443 2k is my estimate (0.02% of the city population), 20k is my absolute upper maximum. How many people were flying out of Wuhan entire month of December? Maybe 1%? I don’t think you realize how small even 20k is and how fast (by mid-Feb) the virus was global.

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John@WesleyP65443·3d

@scotub Come on this is ridiculous. 20k infections in Wuhan by Dec 1 means there would be huge numbers of cases worldwide by January. No data support that. No excess deaths, no seroprevalence surveys, no hospital admissions data indicate the official COVID timelines are wrong.

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scott ferguson@scotub·3d

@bakermind It directly undermines the main market-origin theories, particularly those promoted by people who argue that this same evidence supports a zoonotic origin. If that means nothing, then sure, I guess you’re right.

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Christopher A. Baker@bakermind·3d

@scotub Even if the virus was circulating earlier in 2019, that still doesn't prove whether its origin is zoonotic or otherwise. Other zoonotic viruses spillover multiple times before rampant spread (e.g. HIV)

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scott ferguson@scotub·3d

Example 2: In African green monkeys exposed to aerosolized MERS-CoV, the 10^5 PFU group had significantly higher respiratory rates than the 10^3 group from days 3–10, significantly higher clinical scores than both lower-dose groups.

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scott ferguson@scotub·3d

Example 1: in a SARS-CoV-2 mouse model, higher-dose exposure caused more severe illness than lower-dose exposure. So dose-dependent severity in coronaviruses is not speculative; it has been shown experimentally in animals.

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scott ferguson@scotub·3d

According to Miller, it’s impossible that WIV—while researching highly contagious SARS viruses under inadequate containment—had more than one safety lapse. Also not worth considering: whether a high-titer lab exposure could have caused severe disease even in young researchers.

Peter Miller@tgof137

Alina Chan is confident that we know that 3 researchers at WIV got sick in November 2019: x.com/Ayjchan/status… But she also thinks that the pandemic might have started as early as September: x.com/Ayjchan/status…

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scott ferguson@scotub·3d

@DrAdrianWong What do you make of DEFUSE? Total nothing burger, huh?

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Dr. Adrian Wong (dradrianwong.bsky.social)@DrAdrianWong·4d

I have yet to see any convincing evidence for the lab leak hypothesis.

Dr. Angela Rasmussen@angie_rasmussen

The lab leakers have spoken & my article about the evidence that the pandemic started with zoonotic spillover is VERY DESPERATE/STUPID (just like me). As usual, it’s a lot of effort to deny they are conspiracy theorists & useful idiots Propaganda time! rasmussenretorts.substack.com/p/five-reasons…

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scott ferguson@scotub·3d

So best to realize claims like this are unsubstantiated (i.e. they are lies):

Dr. Angela Rasmussen@angie_rasmussen

@ydeigin There is no evidence that SARS2 was circulating in humans prior to the market based on epi data, serology studies in blood banks, and phylogenetic data (see Havens et al, Cell, 2026 for most recent example).

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scott ferguson@scotub·3d

You are using a biased phylogenetic model: (2/2)

Holtz@Biorealism

@DrJBhattacharya @BallouxFrancois @scotub @R_H_Ebright That fits with the analysis by Sudhir Kumar's group who used sequences recovered by Jesse Bloom and estimate a single point of emergence in September or early October 2019. academic.oup.com/bioinformatics…

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scott ferguson@scotub·5d

@bratwebb I can’t imagine the tunnel you look down, but I don’t envy it!

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B Webb@bratwebb·5d

@scotub Yes, you have good imagination. Let's leave it at that.

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scott ferguson@scotub·6d

Just so we’re clear: This thread’s entire method is: take incomplete early outbreak data, treat the sampling record as the transmission record, wave away every alternative as “not likely,” & then pretend the conclusion proved itself. It’s a just-so story dressed up as deduction.

Peter Miller@tgof137

Thread on the A24325G mutation. Yet another obscure reason why we can tell that Covid started at Huanan market.

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scott ferguson@scotub·5d

@bratwebb I’m not saying it was missed, I’m saying even if it did exist it wouldn’t tell us anything. If I got sick at work, then headed home, then became actually contagious the next day, and attend a concert, does that mean the concert was the origin? Your imagination is lacking.

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B Webb@bratwebb·5d

@scotub The case itself is all circumstantial/coincidences. But to state that early spread near the WIV was missed due to ascertainment bias is just "pretending the conclusion proved itself" as you insinuated.

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scott ferguson@scotub·5d

@WesleyP65443 Look at the BMJ dataset. Significantly more deaths by January are supported beyond the officially reported number.

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John@WesleyP65443·5d

@scotub we should see more deaths in mid Jan and we should’ve seen them beginning earlier.

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scott ferguson@scotub·5d

@bratwebb Are you insinuating your position is that lab leak has zero evidence in its favor? That’s an absurd position.

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B Webb@bratwebb·5d

@scotub Claiming something that has zero evidence is unfalsifiable.

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Keşfet

@erikcorry @WesleyP65443 @bakermind @DrAdrianWong @bratwebb @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13