Catherine Philp

Lebanon invasion is arrogant and brutal, says former Israeli PM thetimes.com/article/5f1b0f…

Would Seizing Kharg Island End the War? Not Even Close A growing argument suggests that capturing Iran’s Kharg Island—the terminal through which roughly 90% of its oil exports flow—could bring the conflict to a swift end. It’s an appealing idea. It’s also dangerously simplistic. This view reflects a narrow, economic reading of the war while overlooking how Iran itself is likely to interpret and respond to such a move. First, the operation itself would not be easy. Kharg Island is defended, and even if seized, holding it would be an ongoing challenge. Iranian forces would almost certainly mount repeated attacks, turning the island into a contested and costly outpost rather than a decisive asset. Second, there is little reason to believe Iran would end the war after losing such a strategic site. On the contrary, the loss of territory would likely harden its resolve. Tehran has historically absorbed significant blows without capitulating—and there is no indication that this case would be different. Third, control of Kharg would not neutralize Iran’s most important lever: its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Even without direct control over key nodes, Iran retains asymmetric tools that can threaten maritime traffic and global energy flows. Fourth, the likely Iranian response would not be passive. Instead, Tehran could escalate horizontally targeting energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Such a response would immediately drive oil prices upward and expand the conflict regionally. Finally, while Kharg is central, it is not Iran’s only option. Alternative, more limited export routes exist. They are less efficient and more vulnerable—but they are sufficient to prevent total economic paralysis. The idea that there is a “silver bullet” solution to this conflict reflects a recurring misunderstanding of Iran as a system—its resilience, its strategic culture, and its tolerance for prolonged confrontation. Seizing Kharg Island may be operationally feasible for the United States. But strategically, it is far more likely to complicate the war, intensify Iranian responses, and push any resolution further out of reach. #iran

I have been deliberately silent on social media for a while. I use all my social media platforms to promote education & make dreams come true for young minds. I rarely post anything about family or politics. This morning, Israel demolished the building I have an apartment in. It took 22 years of my work here & 20 years of my wife’s work to own this apartment. This madness has to stop.

It’s the geography, stupid

"Six months ago the Navy decommissioned its four Avenger-class minesweepers that had been stationed in Bahrain precisely to deal with Iranian mines. It gets dumber: Those four final American minesweepers left the theater in mid-January." open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark…

Iran has some very powerful missiles it hasn’t even used yet. And isn’t likely to until it has worn down interceptor stocks as far as they can.

So war aim one is to repair the damage caused by the decision to go to war in the first place?

First, the Omani FM came out and revealed that there was a deal on the table that met Trump's demands, but that he instead chose war. And now, it is revealed that the British National Security Advisor was also part of the talks, and he too attests to the fact that A) there was no imminent threat from Iran, B) Trump could have gotten a surprisingly good deal if he stuck to diplomacy. But the perhaps most damning quote in the story comes at the end, attributed to an unnamed diplomat: “We regarded Witkoff and Kushner as Israeli assets that dragged a president into a war he wants to get out of.” theguardian.com/world/2026/mar…

Jonathan Powell is a far more experienced national security negotiator than anyone on the US side. This is further confirmation that Starmer was right to refuse to take part in the assault on Iran. What a wasted opportunity. I will be discussing @TimesRadio at 1600.

Larijani’s replacement will be appointed by IRGC. With every assassination U.S. and Israel engineering greater radicalization of Iran’s leadership. It will makes for a bleak future for Iran, Iranians, the region and ultimately makes it far more difficult for U.S. to disentangle itself from endless conflict in the region.

Every single thing that has happened in the US-Israeli war on Iran was both foreseeable and foreseen; predictable and predicted. As a geopolitical blunder it makes Iraq look like child’s play.

Exclusive: The Defense Department has barred photojournalists from briefings on the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran after they published photos of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that his staff deemed “unflattering,” according to two people familiar. wapo.st/4bBjNkd

JUST IN: Ukraine just deployed anti-drone soldiers to Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. The country Russia has been bombing with Iranian Shahed drones for three years is now defending Gulf states from the same Iranian Shahed drones. Read that sentence until the full geometry of this war becomes visible. Zelensky announced on 10th March that Ukrainian military teams equipped with low-cost interceptor drones and electronic warfare systems have arrived in all three Gulf states this week, with a separate team deployed to Jordan for US base protection. The deployment follows direct requests from Washington and calls from Gulf leaders, including Saudi Crown Prince MBS. The interceptors cost between $1,000 and $2,000 each. A Patriot missile costs $3 to $4 million. An Iron Dome Tamir interceptor costs $50,000 to $100,000. A Shahed drone costs $20,000 to $50,000. Ukraine’s battle-tested ramming drones, some 3D-printed and produced at rates of up to 950 per day, achieve over 60 to 70% kill rates against Shahed swarms at a thousandth of the cost of a Patriot. They are disposable. They are scalable. And they have been tested against the exact weapon system they are now deployed to counter, because Iran designed the Shahed and Russia has been launching them at Ukraine since 2022. No other country on Earth has more operational experience killing Shaheds than Ukraine. No other country can offer that expertise at this price. And no other country needs something from the United States as desperately as Ukraine needs Patriot batteries for its own survival. This is the quid pro quo nobody saw coming. Zelensky is not donating expertise. He is trading it. Ukrainian drone killers for American air defence missiles. Shahed interception capability for Patriot deliveries. The country that cannot defend its own power grid without Western systems is now defending Gulf oil infrastructure with indigenous technology cheaper than anything in the American arsenal. The leverage is extraordinary: Ukraine offers the one capability the Gulf urgently needs, at a cost the Pentagon cannot match, in exchange for the one capability Ukraine urgently needs and only Washington can provide. While the US strips THAAD and Patriot batteries from South Korea and ships them to the Gulf at enormous logistical cost, Ukraine arrives with $1,000 drones in cargo containers. While Ghalibaf mocks American escorts as PlayStation, Ukrainian teams set up electronic warfare jammers on Gulf airfields. While the White House blames a staffer for a deleted post about an escort that never happened, Ukraine delivers the capability the post falsely claimed existed. The Iran war just merged with the Russia war through the one weapon system they share: the Shahed drone. Designed in Iran. Manufactured for Russia. Launched against Ukraine for three years. Now launched against the Gulf. And intercepted in both theatres by the same Ukrainian operators using the same $1,000 technology. Iran built the drone. Russia scaled it. Ukraine learned to kill it. And now Ukraine is selling that knowledge to the countries Iran is attacking, funded by the country Russia is fighting. The circle is complete. The wars are one. Full analysis below. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Dubai has 3 percent green space. London has at least 47 percent, 20 percent public. Just saying.

There is no remotely plausible scenario in which Iran would have had "30 to 40 nuclear bombs" a year from now This isn't even the usual case of Witkoff not doing his homework and not understanding his brief. Here he's just making shit up

Trump is spooked by the markets and oil prices, he’s looking to claim victory and get out.

Should you need convincing that it is not in Britain’s interests to join Trump’s war, here it is.

From President Trump, who has been sending deportation flights back to Iran even as he prepared for war

“In the whole written history of the strait, it has never been closed, ever,” said JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva. “To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario. It was an unthinkable scenario.”

Sometimes the son is worse. Just sayin.'