Friend of Roger Sterling

THE DEFINITIVE GENOCIDE THREAD 🧵 What is genocide? Is Gaza an example? What other forces are at play?

Did the down pilot in Iran happen to steal a wallet while there? If he did, he would be an Iranian citizen, according to Justice KJB.

@kuiperDXB @avidseries @JamesSurowiecki You do not need to run anything Iraq style. You just keep killing their leaders and bombing their capacities until you’ve shaken the box enough times to get a result you can live with.

@secretagenting @avidseries @JamesSurowiecki Their nuke scientists are sitting in N.Korea, same place they got their missiles from. The regime constitutes 20% of Iran; close to 18 M people. So it’s not gng anywhere unless u run an Iraq style de-bathification post a ground occupation. Good luck with both.

Isn't the obvious deal that we agree to stop bombing, Iran agrees to open the Strait and stop tolling, and we call it even and everyone goes home?

@ChrisChantal2 @avidseries @JamesSurowiecki 2.5 million Americans served in Vietnam. Couldn’t be more different, and not a good comparison in almost any way.

@secretagenting @avidseries @JamesSurowiecki So did Vietnam

@avidseries @JamesSurowiecki You are defining this in YOUR strategic outcomes (ones that “matter” to you), not ones the USA has been saying. They don’t say regime change. They say no nukes, plus degraded military and weapons abilities.

@secretagenting @JamesSurowiecki If overwhelming military success hasn't resulted in achieving the only two strategic outcomes that matter, what good is it?

@kuiperDXB @avidseries @JamesSurowiecki The “entrenched” regime can’t seem to stay alive. Faster breakout to a nuke with…which facilities that are functioning right now? And all those dead nuke scientists?

@avidseries @secretagenting @JamesSurowiecki It’s leading to quite the opposite result on both strategic outcomes. A more entrenched regime and faster breakout towards a nuke.

@avidseries @JamesSurowiecki How on earth can the regime who had all leaders killed (literally), lost control of its own airspace, lost majority of its weapons, lost its ability to make weapons, and a devastated nuke program…be “humiliating” its opponent? On top, their Arab neighbors hate them openly now.

That's not even. That's Iran outperforming all expectations and humiliating the US, and the US not achieving one of the only two outcomes that matters (regime change) and only delaying the inevitable with respect to the other one (nukes). It represents the end of the line with respect to US-Israeli military action against Iran to stop its nuke program, and the probable fraying of future strategic cooperation with the Gulf States. And Iran knows now exactly what it needs to do in the future to survive. Basically, it wins.

I love the pure situational ethics of communists. Ben Rhodes would have you believe he cares about war crimes after eight years in the White House championing Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian regime. I bet war crimes really keep him up at night. A central moral concern for Ben. Any weapon at hand for these clowns.

@RichardMNephew @yashar “Even if there is a tactical argument people can make”…so…even if there’s a good reason you can just hand wave it away? Got it.

It's a bridge. By that justification, every highway in Iran is a target. This is a stupid thing to do, even if there is a tactical argument people can make.

@BGhandehari @yashar Here

Could the US clarify how the Iranian regime was using this bridge to move weapons while it was still under construction and not yet open?

When u realize ur communist policies were a disaster and need to promise free markets and capitalism ASAP.

@nithyavraman @jonfavs You and the other lying communists deserve a massive loss. You’re now resorting to promising capitalism because your policies have been a total disaster 😂

Let’s lower the rent! As mayor, I will triple housing production by cutting red tape, lowering costs, and eliminating pointless bureaucracy.

@just_whatever She has tattoos! Isn’t that haram?

Hey, fellow Israelis: prepare for a good laugh Our favorite expert on Israel from Dearborn, Michigan - Ms. Ashley Boulos, has obtained confident intelligence Israel is so low on interceptors that there is widespread destruction in Tel Aviv and elsewhere. She says Iran is winning

Oh look, the “peace” people want a military coup

@BrewerEricM @shashj Interesting, how did their secret nuclear facility get built then? Or the extensive nuke plans that the Israelis stole?

The JCPOA seemed to be capable of doing it. 🤷‍♂️

@ProfessorPape How on earth are you a “professor” of anything? You think Iran’s power went up after we eliminated their Air Force, navy, and missile programs? And all their leaders are dead?

Trump may declare the Iran war “over" That does not mean a return to normal It means the emergence of a new baseline: Iran now has structural power over the global economy

Has the UN considered Zohran Mamdani’s wife, who said it’s a hoax? Surely that carries weight.

Next time, let’s wait until Iran has nuclear-armed ICBMs, 10,000 ballistic missiles, a Chinese- and Russian-built military, a million attack drones, a fully operational terror network, and hundreds of billions to harden its economy. Then we’ll fight to reopen Hormuz.

@avidseries How could you possibly know what conversations are going on? So how you could post such a strong opinion with such certainty? We barely have any info on this stuff. We have none of the most important information.

LMAO. The US and the Israelis can keep bombing all they want, but Iran, which of course is badly losing the war militarily, is now dictating its direction. There are no "serious discussions" about regime change that have made "great progress" and no one believes this. This is the blustery rant of a man who is being humiliated by a much weaker rival and all he's got left are threats to commit war crimes and the option to put boots on the ground. What an embarrassment.

@NoahCarl90 @martyrmade Hey did they apologize for killing tens of thousands of their own citizens by chance?

On 8 Jan 2020, Iran shot down a passenger jet, killing everyone on board. They formally apologised three days later, and the head of the IRGC said, "Never in my life have I felt so ashamed." 29 days after killing more than 100 schoolchildren, the US is yet to issue an apology.

@avidseries The “regime” isn’t the same one as the start of the war. They’re all dead. Whatever this next version of the IRGC is (assuming no formal change), will be something different. Dying isn’t winning.

There is nothing in the DNA of the Iranian regime that would permit it to surrender most of its core interests (such as development of its missile programs and the retention of its proxies), and it isn't going to negotiate its way toward giving up power. Its only consideration is its survival and the fulfillment of its apocalyptic religious mission. It will do anything to stay in power, even if that includes slaughtering its own populace, allowing important infrastructure and the economy to be destroyed, and wrecking its relationships with neighboring states. And don't even think about outmaneuvering them at the negotiating table. Iranians have been negotiating with each other for millennia in their marketplaces and social relations. They are much better at it than Americans. (The pathetic Obama deal, if anything, is proof of that.) The Israelis have (belatedly) assessed that the regime will not fall purely through the application of overwhelming military superiority. Every signal I am seeing from ordinary people inside Iran suggests a pessimism about participating in mass protests against the regime. (Admittedly, the Internet blackout makes it difficult to determine the state of mind of Iranians.) But the plain fact remains that without organized and aggressive mass protests and boycotts, the regime will not collapse, and while American "boots on the ground" could conceivably be successful in conducting some limited special operations on Iranian soil, any attempt to launch a full-scale invasion of the country in order to affect regime change is as likely to fail as succeed, at great cost to American lives. The idea that the US military could control for very long a city as vast as Tehran against the IRGC and Basij without an alliance with the Iranian regular army seems farfetched, to say the least. What have US and Israel achieved so far? They've set Iran's nuke and missile program back a few years. What has Iran achieved? They've shown that, despite being militarily trounced, they are perfectly capable of shaping the course of a conflict with the US by attacking economically fragile neighbors, destroying or neutralizing some of America's military assets in the region, closing the Gulf to shipping and impacting the global economy, instilling enough fear in its own population to get it to stand down, showing the Gulf States that an alliance with the US against Iran offers only limited value and may in fact be a net liability, and proving its institutional resilience despite the loss of almost its entire senior leadership. Iran came to the battle fully prepared, the US didn't. It doesn't matter how many targets the US and Israel have hit. If the regime doesn't fall, the Iranian regime, now more hardened than ever, will have won.