Shibui Finance

@marketplunger1 160 years private because they didn't need the capital. If they ever change their mind on that, it's a market structure event, not just an IPO.

Everyone is obsessing over the SpaceX, Anduril, and Anthropic IPOs. But I am telling you. A Cargill IPO in this commodity environment would hit like crack.

@dirtcheapbanks The federal indictment is the discount evaporating in real time. Once the lawsuit clears, half of book on double digit ROEs doesn't last.

Working on a new article. I found a crazy cheap bank that got sued for fraud. The kicker: they were actually a victim of the fraud, and one of the guys suing them just got federally indicted. Trades at half of book. Historically generated double digit ROE’s. Board just filed a proxy to remove ownership caps and add change of control incentives. I think it could get sold in the next 18 months. Link in my bio

@JohnMuchow @tradingview $STM keeps showing up. RS Alpha, Ants, and now earnings gap-up. Three completely different filters, same name. Usually not noise.

Recent earnings gap-ups: ✅ Price gap-up > 10% ✅ Volume up 100%+ over average ✅ Current price > earnings gap-up bar low Highlights: $RKLB $NBIS $STM Earnings gap-up screener for @TradingView: tradingview.com/script/DKiGBmF…

S&P at record highs. These stocks' 50-day just crossed above the 200-day. JPMorgan: 14x P/E, 10% rev growth Fortinet: 46x, 20% rev growth Levi Strauss: 13.5x, 14% rev growth SEI Investments: 15x, 13% rev growth Not all cheap. All just turned bullish.

@dirtcheapbanks Nobody at JPMorgan is eating breakfast across the street from a competitor to learn about their loan book. That is the whole edge.

You can learn more about a community bank by eating breakfast at the diner across the street from the branch than you can from a year of reading 10-Ks, because by 7:30 in the morning every farmer, every contractor, every small business owner in the county has cycled through the booths, and over coffee and eggs they will tell you, without realizing they are telling you, who is borrowing, who is current, whose son just took over the family operation, which loan officer at the bank everyone trusts and which one nobody does, and whether the new branch manager from out of town has figured out yet that the way things work in this county has nothing to do with the procedures manual he was handed in training. The waitress will refill your coffee three times. The bill will be $9. You will tip her $20. You will walk across the street to the bank at 9 AM with more useful information than any sell-side analyst has ever produced about any small bank in America, and you will buy the stock that afternoon, and you will be right, and almost nobody will ever do this, which is, as it has always been, the entire reason it works.

@Greenbackd Most of those operating businesses are on the books at decades-old cost basis. Real multiple is probably even cheaper than 1.4x suggests.

$BRK.B is currently trading at approximately 1.4 times book value as of March 31, below historical averages from recent years. Exactly the kind of setup Buffett would pounce on. Abel repurchased 33 Class A and 431,462 Class B shares in March, spending roughly $234 million on buybacks. Key question: Is the underperformance mean-reverting (the premium comes back as Abel proves himself) or structural (the market is correctly repricing a company out-of-step with the tech-driven index)?

@DeepValueReport Shoes are the customer acquisition cost. Apparel is the monetization. 46% growth off 7% of revenue says the conversion is working.

Day 26 of 30: How $ONON On Holdings actually makes money Most people think it's a Swiss running shoe brand It's not. It's a full-price luxury sportswear machine with a 63% gross margin Here's the real breakdown 🧵

Cisco went from -10% revenue to record $15.8B, +12%, in seven quarters. AI hyperscaler orders: $600M to $1.9B a quarter. Full-year AI guide lifted from $5B to $9B. Up 34% YTD, 14% above analyst targets. The networking company.

@marketplunger1 Rice was range-bound for almost two years while every other soft commodity ran. Late mover or the real signal?

And there's the breakout in rice futures. Pretty simple formula going forward. Just buy the stuff we have to grow or mine.

@Greenbackd The scary part is we might break it without a bubble. Just really expensive profitable companies.

Shiller PE is 42+. All-time high in 2000 was 44+. Records are meant to be broken.

@dirtcheapbanks 10-13% ROE below tangible book is the number that should get more attention. In any other sector that math gets you 1.5x book minimum.

Community banks in 2026 are one of the last places in American public equities where doing the actual work still produces an edge no algorithm can replicate. There are roughly 4,100 of them left, and maybe 280 trade below tangible book while earning 10 to 13% on equity in towns where they have been the only bank since before the moon landing. The work is simple. You run a screen for market cap under $400 million, price-to-tangible-book under 0.9, ROE above 10%, charge-offs below 0.3%, and insider ownership above 8%. You read the annual report. You pull the proxy. You drive three hours to the branch on a Tuesday morning, sit in the lobby, eat the cookie, and ask the CEO what keeps him up at night. You buy 15 of them, sized small, hold for five years. Some compound quietly at 12% a year. Some get acquired at 70% premiums. None go to zero, because they have operated profitably through every recession since the Truman administration. The only thing standing between you and the trade is the willingness to own a $90 million market cap bank in a town you cannot find on a map, which is, as it has always been, the entire reason the math still works.

S&P at all-time highs. 45% of US stocks above $500M still in correction. Only 15% within 5% of their own 52-week high. Consumer discretionary worst at 63% still down 20%+. It's an index record, not a market record.

@ElliotTurn @peter_mantas Tools companies get paid regardless of which drugs win the approval lottery. FDA mess delays the timeline but doesnt shrink the pipeline.

Great episode with @peter_mantas covering turmoil at the FDA & it's impact on biotech & life science! It's not every day that you schedule a guest in advance and end up with an incredibly timely headline right before recording. Learn how Makary's firing impacts investments:

@DeepValueReport O at 670 months is in a different category. The rest of that list is a bet that this months deposit isnt the last one at that level.

Monthly cash flow is the only thing some folks want. Enjoy these monthly deposits: $O -- 670 consecutive months. The gold standard. $AGNC -- Just confirmed $0.12 for May. High yield, high stress, but the cash is real. $LTC -- Senior housing play. $0.19/share hitting May 29. $EPR -- Experiential real estate. $0.31 per share payable May 15. $APLE -- 7.6% yield. $GOOD -- Industrial/office mix. Still yielding near 10%.

@TSOH_Investing @StoneHillWealth Twelve months of open-market buys while the stock drops. One purchase is a signal. A year of it at $4 is a thesis.

Another ~70k shares of $PTLO for Eugene Lee Jr. He's bought ~486k shares in the past 12 months h/t @StoneHillWealth

@dirtcheapbanks When Brenda retires, 27 years of pattern matching walks out the door. No database captures that. Key person risk nobody prices in.

Brenda has worked at this bank for twenty-seven years and she knows which farmers are three months behind on their equipment loans but still good for it and which ones are current on paper but won't make it through the winter, and she knows that Mr. Henderson's weekly deposit should be exactly $2,847.12 every Friday unless he sold extra calves that week, and she knows that the Peterson kid's checking account went negative three times last month which means he's probably using again, and she knows that the widow Morrison always withdraws exactly $300 every second Tuesday for her grandson's piano lessons even though the grandson is now thirty-four and lives in Denver, and this knowledge lives in her head and nowhere else because there is no field in the core banking system for "Morrison withdraws $300 for dead grandson" or "Henderson's deposit timing correlates with cattle market" or "Peterson family addiction patterns affect loan performance," and when the acquisition closes next month Brenda will train her replacement for exactly forty-seven minutes on how to process a wire transfer and how to order new checks and how to run the daily cash report, but there is no training manual for twenty-seven years of watching the same families grow up and fail and get married and default and die, and the acquiring bank's efficiency experts have calculated that eliminating her $47,000 salary will improve the cost-to-income ratio by thirty-six basis points, and they are correct about the math and completely wrong about everything else, and Brenda will clean out her desk on a Friday afternoon and take her coffee mug and her photos of her grandkids and walk out of the building where she has spent more waking hours than her own home, and the bank will continue operating and the customers will learn to use the ATM and the drive-through and the mobile app, and the new systems will process transactions faster and more efficiently than Brenda ever could, but no computer will ever know that Henderson's late payment means he's probably getting divorced again, and no algorithm will recognize the early warning signs in the Peterson kid's account activity, and no spreadsheet will track the subtle rhythms of a rural economy that Brenda could read like sheet music, and six months later when three farmers default in the same week and the loan committee wonders how they missed the warning signs, there will be no one left to explain that the signs were all there if you knew how to look, but the person who knew how to look got eliminated for efficiency.

@NonGaap Same game as capitalizing software dev costs. Reclass to CapEx, EBITDA goes up, nothing actually changed. Auditors will catch up eventually.

"Shift AI token spending from OpEx to CapEx to boost adjusted EBITDA and improve company valuation" 🤔

@GWInvestors More votes for the challenger than for the board's own authority. That's not a protest vote anymore, that's a mandate.

Fun fact: more market cap voted for me (CHF 2.35 billion) as a board member today for Swatch than actually voted to give the management & board authority to exercise their job (CHF 2.20 billion). The keychain distraction is not going to last long & this is not going away...

@Greenbackd Last regime like this was the 70s. 60/40 only works when bonds do their job. When they stop, the first casualty is every target-date fund in the country.

Positive correlation (above 0) means stocks and bonds move together. Stocks go up → bonds go up Stocks go down → bonds go down Both assets can fall simultaneously. Bonds won't hedge equity risk.

Prompt: "Companies growing revenue 15%+ while expanding gross margins 3 quarters in a row" Micron - 74% GM, was 56% last quarter Newmont - 74% GM, 46% growth. A gold miner. Paychex - 76% GM, payroll moat SoFi - 84% GM, 43% growth Screened in 360ms over 316K records.