Elliot Turner

Incredible new episode with Doug O'Laughlin of @fabknowledge and @SemiAnalysis_!! On how the semi industry is leading AI forward, the winners of the AI race, an intriguing investment opp in the newest bottleneck for the industry & the deep recession in the non-AI semi world.

DAY 5 of attempting to cure my dog's cancer using AI UPDATE: We finally found a way to sequence Rosie's DNA. A thread 🧵

@RyeNotBerben @marginalidea Good in depth article on the process from last June news.unsw.edu.au/en/paul-is-usi…

@ElliotTurn @marginalidea It can be a promising new therapy and the article still bunk - i don’t believe the article at all.

my take on the guy that cured his dog's cancer with ChatGPT is that I wouldn't trust anything an Australian told me without verifying it three different ways

@marginalidea Yep hopefully this can be a reverse citrini moment for the space, drawing attention, creativity and funds to advancing the science...

@ElliotTurn I think it does! I think all the people being like "we can't do this because of the cost and trials" are lame. We should be trying cool stuff.

@christianoboria To name 1 ticker that directly is tied to the future of mRNA as a therapy, look at MRVI. Gets back to DD growth and profitability this year.

@christianoboria Jensen and Dario been saying this too. It's wild Citrini can move software so much but these brilliant thinkers can see the future, yet the sector is still in the dumps.

At this point Druck has been talking so much about drug discovery in Pharma and biotech being some of the largest beneficiaries of AI. I’m out of my ambit, truthfully, but maybe time to get some intelligent exposure in the portfolio. Hit me, science boys.

@investingdpark Definitely pareto rules at work w/r/t information

@ElliotTurn Reminds me of the illusion of greater accuracy with more info:

So there's still hope for us human investors before our robot overlords take over!

From: gettheleverage.com/p/metas-massiv…

@nuancerocket @r33nd3r @SouthernValue95 @dylan522p Lol that is a beautiful gif

@ElliotTurn @r33nd3r @SouthernValue95 @dylan522p we ride.

This podcast with @dylan522p is a terrific rebuttal to the Citrini doomer scenario by playing through the real world constraints of a fast-ish takeoff (I know it wasn’t intended as such). The constraints to producing enough AI tokens to be disruptive to society will slow it down and let the world adopt at a more digestible pace. But more importantly, we should not think of AIs impact on the world in a zero sum manner. As AI becomes more capable, the value of producing more tokens goes up, every corner of the energy and semis supply chain will need to ramp capacity, and in doing so, will invest / hire and grow GDP. This somewhat small example of a tech entrepreneur using AI to develop a cancer vaccine for his dog highlights that things that were not before possible or practical may now be. What if we suddenly find 300 new disease cures in the next 2-3 years? We will have a biotech boom that makes the COVID era look like a warmup, and a manufacturing boom to produce the drugs, more hiring and more GDP growth. It’s not crazy that we could be facing skilled labor shortages for many years. theaustralian.com.au/business/techn… (thanks @ElliotTurn ) The broader point is there will be lots of growth in new areas that didn’t exist before, and we will need people to do new jobs and to build those companies. If society can do everything we do today with fewer people, and reallocate some amount of people to new tasks, that’s a very good thing. That’s a productivity boom that potentially increases the quality of life for everyone on the planet.

@r33nd3r @nuancerocket @SouthernValue95 @dylan522p This, to the fullest.

@nuancerocket @SouthernValue95 @ElliotTurn @dylan522p that’s the wrong picture

@TheLAPurchaser MRVI gonna grow DD% again and they'd power this for humans (and are in trials) but people sold the stock bc of war in Iran!?!!!

Now i want you to think about what this means for bioprocessing... $DHR $TMO $RGEN $DIM.FP

@SouthernValue95 @dylan522p Great thoughts here! On a related note, it's wild to me that the Citrini piece nuked software stocks, but Jensen, Dario, Druckenmiller all see lifesci/biotech as the most promising beneficiary of AI and the sector is down the tubes.

@GeoffBailey Thanks Geoff!

Rarely do you find such a thoughtful, balanced, and well-reasoned argument on social media. Good read

@FastTradeKing IMO it's a combo of a threat that "yes we're serious" & an opening phase in case they have to go that route. 2. We have 3 mineclearing boats there from the US Navy, we should be able to get that done fairly quickly (though I'm faaaaaar from an expert). It will take time though.

@FastTradeKing Of course! Appreciate it. I'll try to answer the best I can. 1) Iran said they're not mining it, though hard to take at face value. Clearest evidence is ships are in fact going through to get to China w/ oil. Thta wouldn't happen if heavily mined.

This is an Iran thread. I want to push back at the Twitter narrative re: the Hormuz situation–that things are spiraling out of control & Iran is gaining the upper hand by strangling the US economy.

@FastTradeKing Right we def needed the SPR release and some portion of diverted ongoing supply to bridge from here to there.

@ElliotTurn This is pretty well reasoned out. The argument here is that there's a two week window for a ceasefire. While interesting, that doesn't equate to a two week window for shipping to resume in the Strait.

@SteelJustise 1) I think they value self-preservation over a prolonged war. Ability is there. 2) Russia yes, China no. China badly needs Hormuz to open to get LNG & other key supplies. 3) Trump has little pain tolerance on the economy, especially as midterms approach. 4) see 1 above.

@ElliotTurn I think you 1) underestimate prolonged ability of Iran to continue this warfare. 2) Do not account for Russia and China interest in a prolonged conflict to weaken US, 3) Ability of Trump admin to take years of pain, 4) How new leader behaves after his family killed