shivzy
99 posts

shivzy
@shivzy1
Software Engineer and crypto enthusiast
Katılım Nisan 2021
448 Takip Edilen22 Takipçiler

@Codie_Sanchez @Codie_Sanchez build visabuddy.xyz to automate the TN visa application process with Lovable + codex
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Every day for the next long while, I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date, top startups, key quotes from earnings calls, etc.
Day six, ServiceNow, which is down 34% YTD:
Peak share price: $225 (Jan 31, 2025)
Share price today: $100.74 (-55%)
EV today: $ 100.5bn
ARR today: $13.9bn (+21% Y/y)
NRR: ~120% (as of May 2025)
EV/ARR: 7.2x
GAAP Operating Margin: 12.5%
EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 56x
Headcount: 32,346 (+11% Y/y)
What it does: ServiceNow was founded in 2003 as an Enterprise workflow platform. It found success in and became associated with ITSM, internal workflow software to manage IT ticketing/support for large enterprises, but has since expanded into a back-office platform, with ~half of NNACV coming from IT workflows and the balance from across organizations (security, HR, legal, CX, etc.). This expansion was natural as ServiceNow was built as a workflow platform first, and that intrinsic extensibility + alignment with IT allowed it to experience much more robust natural expansion vs. more purpose-built platforms like Workday and Salesforce.
AI bear case:
ServiceNow's workflow solution is often aligned with enterprise cost centers, where there is a significant opportunity to automate headcount over time. The software itself is no spring chicken two decades in, and G2000 enterprise backoffice workflow automation is now a ferocious battleground, including from horizontal players like OpenAI and Anthropic as well as dedicated AI native competition, given the size of the opportunity. In a world where complex enterprise software gets dramatically cheaper to build and back office employment enters secular decline, the paradigms that powered ServiceNow's growth/strength are under threat.
AI bull case:
ServiceNow's existing workflow product includes natural insertion points for AI. Complex IT workflows will almost certainly remain hybrid, including (at a minimum) human approval steps. With sticky software (98% gross retention), deep integrations and world-class distribution, ServiceNow will be able to cross-sell agents into its base and reap meaningful AI value. There are already signs of this playing out, and ServiceNow has emerged as a key partner of leading AI labs as they seek to unlock enterprise distribution.
AI traction:
ServiceNow reports $600m of AI ACV (NowAssist), up >100% Y/y. I'll note that these sorts of headline disclosures from software companies are often suspect and subject to pricing/packaging gimmicks, much as Oracle's "cloud" disclosures were in 2014-2020. But in any case, this is the largest AI native revenue figure disclosed by any company outside of the foundation model vendors.
Adjacent AI-native startup summary:
Serval (Agents for ITSM)- 60 employees, +445% Y/y, $122m from Sequoia/RedpointAll-purpose
Console (Agents for ITSM)- 22 employees, +340% Y/y, $29m from DST/Thrive
OpenAI (All-purpose enterprise agents)- 7,112 employees, +72% Y/y
Anthropic (All-purpose enterprise agents)- 4,178, +160% Y/y
Management Quotes:
"The speculation of AI will eat software companies is out there. Let's clear it up with the facts. Enterprise AI will be the largest driver of return on the multitrillion-dollar super cycle of investment in AI infrastructure. The real payoff comes when trillions of tokens move beyond pilots to be embedded directly into the workflows where business decisions are made."
"Overall, the number of workflows and the number of transactions each grew over 33% from 60 billion to 80 billion and from 4.8 trillion to 6.4 trillion, respectively, and the growth continues. I continue to hear speculation about seat compression. If all we did was look at available seats in our target market, there would be an estimated 1.3 billion seats in that target market. So we barely scratch the surface."
"ServiceNow and Anthropic have announced an expanded partnership to integrate Claude models more deeply into the ServiceNow AI platform. Through the collaboration, ServiceNow is also bringing leading Claude models into ServiceNow to support secure, compliant AI across numerous industries."
"ServiceNow also announced a new collaboration with OpenAI to enable direct customer access to frontier model capabilities, custom ServiceNow AI solutions and increased speed with no bespoke development required. Under this agreement, OpenAI models will be a preferred intelligence capability for several agentic use cases offered to ServiceNow enterprise customers."
Additional Commentary:
It is clear that for things to go wrong for ServiceNow, the world would have to get quite strange.
At present, ServiceNow seems well-positioned to be an AI winner, with over half of enterprise buyers surveyed seeing it as a core agent platform for their companies and a clear majority of respondents saying that AI is a help for ServiceNow. What is worth watching is the logo retention rates, and in particular examples of large, blue-chip companies replacing or reducing ServiceNow usage in favor of AI native companies. There's arguably no evidence of that today (if anything, ServiceNow seems to be experiencing AI as an accelerant), but the world is changing quickly.

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@Bhavani_00007 I have found Cloudflare Pages to be amazing and pretty easy to use. Really easy to import a domain name that you may have bought through namecheap as well
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Venture capital funding: it's not just about the money, it's about finding partners who believe in your vision, share your values, and are willing to take risks with you. It's a relationship game, not a transactional one. 🤝💰 #VCfunding #startup #partnership
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Web3 is not just a buzzword, it's a game-changer! With crypto and blockchain, we're reimagining the way we interact with the internet, putting power and control back in the hands of users. Say goodbye to centralized systems and hello to a decentralized and secure future #Crypto
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See you in July @Leon_edwardsmma
Greenwich, London 🇬🇧 English

@alexandr_wang @alexandr_wang I've surprisingly found it helpful when asking about how to use a certain library to do x in Golang for example. It pairs really well with StackOverflow
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