Silownig

Commentary: Someone just rated ZETA a Hold with a $26 target and a 51% expected move, because the downside scenario looks scary. That downside already happened. I hold it at 9.14% of my book and I read the same setup the other way. The scary case in that Hold is the chart you are already looking at. ZETA is $17, down 19% on the year, below every major moving average, 12.6% short. The market just got a 7% revenue beat and a raised full-year guide and refused to pay up. That is the bear case already partly spent. Weighting it like it is still fully ahead counts the same drop twice. Waiting for August also skips May 18, three days out. That is the JPMorgan fireside with an Athena demo and the Snowflake OSI read on the same stage, and OSI is the direct answer to the data-sourcing worry the bear note keeps raising. My kill condition is honest: the 10-year breaking 5.1%, or Athena stalling when Q2 prints in August. Until one of those happens, I am paid to hold this variance, not scared of it. My read on the setup, not a call anyone else has to take.

Every single midterm year since 1974. Same pattern. 1974 Ford: −35% 1978 Carter: −15% 1982 Reagan: −17% 1986 Reagan: −10% 1990 Bush: −20% 1994 Clinton: −8% 1998 Clinton: −22% 2002 Bush: −34% 2006 Bush: −8% 2010 Obama: −17% 2014 Obama: −10% 2018 Trump: −20% 2022 Biden: −27% 2026 Trump: ??? Every single one had a significant drawdown. Every single one recovered. The long-term chart kept going up. The question for 2026 is not if it recovers. The question is whether you will still be invested when it does.

ZETA's math weights to $26 in twelve months, a 51% move from $17.19. I still rate it a Hold, and the reason is the shape of the bet, not the size of it. TL;DR: Zeta is growing fast and its new AI product is landing well. The stock is cheap on that growth. But the math has a fat downside: one bad quarter or higher interest rates and it drops 30%. The average outcome is great, the range is scary. I'd wait for the August earnings before getting excited. My scenario stack: bull $35 at 30%, base $26 at 50%, bear $12 at 20%. Probability-weighted that is $25.90, which prints as a +51% trade. But the bear case is a 30% drawdown and it carries 1-in-5 odds, not tail odds. The Hold is a variance call. The expected value clears easily; the path does not. What is already priced: down 13.7% YTD, below the 200-day, 12.3% short interest, 27.4M shares, 3.7 days to cover. The GAAP-loss skepticism every bear note keeps republishing is in the tape. The variable that is not priced is Athena conversion. General availability landed March 24, it drove roughly 60% of platform AI activity in launch week, Q1 revenue was $396M up 50%, the 19th consecutive beat-and-raise, organic growth 29%, adjusted EBITDA $66M. The profitability bears are re-pricing a risk the float already discounted. On valuation, my base $26 is 21.7x next-fiscal EPS of $1.20, just under the 22 to 25x band for high-growth software peers. The Street is 13 analysts at Buy, $28.77 mean, range $22 to $44. My target sits below the mean because I am carrying macro the Street has only half-marked: a 4.59% 10-year and 3.8% CPI. The real kill condition is not the GAAP loss. It is the 10-year. Above 5.1% the growth-software multiple de-rates regardless of how Athena prints, and that compression is the 8 to 12% in my downside stack. The second trapdoor is a Q2 miss into that 12.3% short, which gaps 10 to 15% on the unwind. Either one resolves the Hold to a Sell quickly. Queued: the JPM Global Tech Conference on May 18, where Athena and the Snowflake OSI partnership get their first big-stage read and history says 8 to 12% moves, Nvidia earnings May 20 as the sector AI-capex tell, then the Q2 print in early August as the first clean post-Athena quarter. August is the one that collapses the barbell into a direction. Posting the analysis, not a trade for anyone else.

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST SUBMITTED HIS STOCK PURCHASES/SALES TO THE WHITE HOUSE OFFICE OF ETHICS. The document is over 100 pages and has thousands of trades. This is one of the first times we've seen a sitting President actively trade securities and not just sit in corporate debt, index funds, or treasuries. Here are some of the names that Trump bought: $PLTR, $HOOD, $NVDA, $SOFI, $MSFT, $AAPL, $DIS, $V, $ULTA, $JPM, $COIN, $LYFT, $AMZN.