simple investing

It's slightly less than 1 year since starting Outperforming the Market on SS. The response has been phenomenal and I sincerely thank you all. As earlier communicated with subs, I have made the decision to keep the service small to maintain the quality. Starting 1 Dec 25, I have decided to raise the annual plan from $320/yr to $400/yr. If you subscribed before 1 Dec, your $320/year or lower plan will be grandfathered and not affected by the price increase. Thank you all once again for the support and I look forward to helping you to continue to outperform the market.

Software is the next "bottleneck" anon

Great summary of the Coatue report

Lumentum +16% 1. Nasdaq 100 inclusion 2. Nokia released 2.4T products 3. Cisco released 2.4T products Do you own enough $LITE anon???

@welcometoselva 💯 🎯 thanks!

@simpleinvest01 I'll add $MNDY to your list, up 18% in pre-market.

@mrjonathanreese It’s a big group though, you can if you are selective.

@simpleinvest01 software is the last thing you should invest in. the only "software" companies that will do well are the ones where the software isn't the key part of the business.

@MoBetterfrvl You should really start looking forward then

@simpleinvest01 hindsight is not wisdom.

@beaversteever You get it

brother...

@MoBetterfrvl Generating alpha is all about being selective

@simpleinvest01 nice cherry-picking.

@elpistollero_ +100% ytd should probably have included this

@simpleinvest01 $FSLY

@anandkhatri Got to be selective here ofc.

@simpleinvest01 Not all softwares, very specific ones are more important than ever in agentic AI era.

$LITE Net Inflow and Stock Price Impact of Nasdaq Inclusion (1/2)

Earnings next week

Portfolio rebalancing: Entering new positions with attractive risk/reward and exiting old positions with relatively poorer risk/reward. (Link in bio)

Current semi stocks ranking by FY1/FY2 EPS multiple and PEG.

@jukan05 Congrats well deserved Jukan!

I woke up to find that I’ve reached 100,000 followers… I’m happy, of course, but at the same time, I feel a real sense of responsibility. Even when I post nonsense, far too many people still read it… So I just want to say thank you, with humility and genuine gratitude.

UBS - $AMD is much less capacity constrained than $INTC, AMD server CPU revenue growing at 80% this year "The market obviously realizes that INTC’s guidance reads very favorably for AMD – particularly server CPU given commentary that implies INTC is undershipping the market by ~20%. The main question here is AMD’s supply, but our field work through the Q was indicating that supply for INTC’s parts was far more constrained than for AMD parts – so we think this sets up very well for AMD and we see revenue being guided up at least $1B Q/Q to the low $11B range (Street ~$10.4B). Server CPU: Intel’s CY2026 outlook implies its Data Center & AI segment growing ~40% Y/Y and we now see AMD server CPU growing as much as 80% this year with units up ~40-45% and pricing now up in the 20% range – helped in part by the ramp of the new Venice parts. From a competitive standpoint, our checks remain constructive. AMD’s CPU portfolio continues to compare favorably with Intel’s offerings, and the lack of meaningful timeline updates for Diamond Rapids and Coral Rapids reinforces our view that AMD should maintain a competitive advantage across the x86 ecosystem through C2026. Data center GPU: given our work on the rack timing, we reduce our C2026 DC GPU revenue slightly from $14.5B to $14B with some revenue pulled out of both CQ3 and CQ4, but overall we are raising our C2026/2027/2028 revs/EPS from $47B/$71B/$91B to $49B/$75B/$95B and from $6.65/$11.57/$15.94 to $7.65/$13.09/$17.62 driven almost entirely by data center CPU. We increase our PT to $455 from $310, based on a 35x avg peer multiple applied to C2027 EPS. Because AMD is in the very early stages of ramping into a huge XPU TAM, we would argue that the stock should command a higher multiple than peers and given our ~$18 EPS in C2028, think a ~$455 PT makes sense at ~25x PE multiple compared to peers’ average of 24x for C2027E."

Next week is huge for photonics & semiconductor Earnings. Summary of key signals that could be good/bad for companies like $FN to $AAOI to $LITE. TLDR: - $AMD, $SMCI & $KLIC - ultimately set the tone for the entire AI infrastructure complex. - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI commentary on 1.6T mix + CPO timing is the most important data for exposure into H2 2026. > Monday: $FN: any new 1.6T/CPO wins + capacity plans. Also any confirmation that 1.6T transceivers for $NVDA Blackwell Ultra are in volume production. Customer concentration w/ Nvidia + Cisco is probs the main swing variable rn. $PLTR (since it’s probs a huge position for most ppl): currently priced for a flawless beat+raise. The only thing that matters is whether US Commercial rev sustains >130% YoY pace + whether mgmt raises FY26 guide again. Anything less than a meaningful raise risks multiple compression even on a headline beat. > Tuesday: $LITE: bar is super high. Already guided Q3 to ~$830M (+85% YoY) + "multi-hundred-million-dollar" CPO order for H1 2027 delivery. Narrative needs to hold: (a) transceiver ramp (b) any clarity on optical scale-up (c) margin trajectory toward 30% guide. Operating profit is tiny, so any cost slip on capacity adds could be negative. $AMD: data center rev beat+raise. Would need clear path to share gains in training/inference without margin give-back. So, opex/data center guide that doesn't spook algos. Also updates on $200B supply from OpenAI to prove AMD is eroding $NVDA mkt share. $SMCI: room for a re-rate if margins inflect. Other signals incl. positive Blackwell $13B order book shipments, backlog conversion, hyperscaler mix, and any raise to $40B+ FY2026 rev target. Any softening in demand / more margin decompression highlights pricing power weakness vs. $DELL. The governance overhang from 2024 is still fresh in the memory, so need positive commentary on that. > Wednesday: $COHR: need a clean beat like $LITE. Info that 6-inch InP yields are exceeding legacy lines to support high margin H2 production ramp of 1.6T transceivers. Also confirmation of initial CPO rev from "exceptionally large purchase order" CEO said on Q2 call. $KLIC: advanced-packaging pivot is the entire story - key is order momentum in advanced packaging/memory, margin stabilization & any FY2026 growth reaffirmation. The AI-packaging optionality (HBM, HBF) is what could re rate their multiple. $IONQ: Feel like this is less about fundamentals since quantum is still so early, but will be important for all Quantum names like $QBTS, $RGTI since they all move in tandem it seems. Key signals are potentially (a) cash burn after recent capital raises (b) backlog colour underpinning $225M FY26 guide. > Thursday: $AAOI: key watchpoints are 800G/1.6T shipment traction, recent hyperscaler order backlog (e.g. $71M upsized 800G), margin trajectory, Texas capacity ramp. Mgmt say demand "outpaces capacity through mid-2027" so any execution slip would be punished. Ofc, new order announcements would be v. nice. Just top level summary points that are most important imo for each company rn.

If you're curious about Goldman's Report: They expect "significant EPS upside" among: 1. Optical modules and engines 2. CW lasers and EMLs 3. PCB/CCL manufacturers Here's the massive cheat sheet: Laser / Light Sources (SiPh): Sumitomo, Furukawa (5801), Landmark (3081), YJ Semi, $LITE, $COHR $AVGO, Etern (600105.SS), Everbright Photonics (688048.SS), Shijia Photons (688313.SS), Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Accelink (002281.SZ), Mitsubishi (6503.T) Laser / Light Sources (EML): Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), Broadcom (AVGO), YJ Semi (688498.SS), Etern (600105.SS), Sumitomo Electric (5802.T), Everbright Photonics (688048.SS), Shijia Photons (688313.SS), Source Photonics (Private), Mitsubishi (6503.T), Accelink (002281.SZ), Furukawa (5801.T) Passive Optical Components - Couplers / Splitters: FOCI (3363.TWO), Senko (Private), AFR (300620.SZ), Everprox (300548.SZ), Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR) Passive Optical Components - Filters: Shijia Photons (688313.SS), Sumitomo Electric (5802.T), Lumentum (LITE), Coherent (COHR), Viavi (VIAV), FOCI (3363.TWO) Passive Optical Components - Attenuators: Everprox (300548.SZ), Accelink (002281.SZ), FOCI (3363.TWO), Lumentum (LITE) Passive Optical Components - WDM: AFR (300620.SZ), Everprox (300548.SZ), Accelink (002281.SZ), Ciena (CIEN), TFC Optical (300394.SZ), Lumentum (LITE), FOCI (3363.TWO)

The best performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year... bilello.blog/newsletter