Darnenng2

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Darnenng2

Darnenng2

@singsemp

Katılım Ekim 2024
41 Takip Edilen32 Takipçiler
Damnang
Damnang@damnang2·
I’m gradually adding to my positions because I believe the three signals from $AEHR ’s latest earnings report will soon put many of the current concerns surrounding the optical market to rest. 🥹
Damnang@damnang2

x.com/i/article/2077…

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Damnang
Damnang@damnang2·
One of the most interesting parts of AEHR’s latest earnings call was the direct mention of DFT, Design for Testability. Since my PhD specialization is in DFT, this was particularly interesting to me. Once you understand why AEHR brought up DFT in this context, I think it becomes much clearer why I have remained bullish on the company since the beginning of this year.
Damnang@damnang2

x.com/i/article/2077…

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Damnang
Damnang@damnang2·
When IBM’s stock surged about a month and a half ago, I wrote the following in my research report: “The stock is extremely expensive at current levels. Quantum computing provides optionality, but it is still a very distant story. There is some potential upside from software, but it does not yet represent a large enough portion of the business, and the stock currently carries a significant Trump premium.” After today’s announcement, my view on IBM has become even more cautious. More importantly, it reinforced my conviction that semiconductor and memory demand remains exceptionally strong, while software spending is being pressured as enterprises prioritize hardware and memory purchases. My conclusion is that we can afford to have even stronger conviction in semiconductors and memory.
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Damnang@damnang2

x.com/i/article/2061…

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Damnang
Damnang@damnang2·
The importance of burn-in testing cannot be overstated. x.com/damnang2/statu…
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs

Wow, unreal $AEHR Q4 earnings and FY2027 outlook, +26% after-hours. I have high conviction that Aehr is well positioned for many years of very strong growth: - Multiple customers entering/expanding production - Huge backlog - Opportunities in new markets e.g. NAND and HBM applications for their WLBI system roadmap. -> Q4 2026 earnings: Revenue: $18.8M vs. Est. $18.7M EPS: $0.11 vs. Est. ($0.01) Bookings: $61M Backlog: $101M -> FY27 Guidance: Revenue: up to $150M vs. Est. $85M (+200% YoY) - WLBI demand from AI applications is expected to accelerate. - AEHR also engaged with additional AI processor suppliers that are evaluating WLBI to improve product reliability and reduce yield loss from production burn-in. With qualification testing for their WLBI exceeding all of their major customers' expecations. With their major customers ultimately saying that they want to buy even more systems from Aehr. "The potential revenue opportunity from any one of these devices is significant to Aehr in terms of near and long-term revenue streams related to the WLBI systems." Then on their package-level burn-in systems: - Record follow-on orders recently from Aehr's lead hyperscale customer. - Customer wants to buy more PLBI systems. - Aehr also engaged w/ multiple new customers for PLBI qualification incl. AI customers and robotics. So overall, very significant TAM expansion if they can capture new customers across AI and robotics. And since they pass qualification cycles with ease, I have high confidence that they'll capture these newer markets also, driven by years and years of in-house process knowledge + patents. I've mentioned a few times, but Aehr's lead SiPho customer is also ramping w/ follow-on orders over the last year. And more orders coming soon from them for additional WLBI systems. "Our newest major silicon photonics customer...has provided us a forecast for additional systems this calendar year as it ramps capacity to support next-generation hyperscale data center deployments." All basically meaning that SiPho + optical test and burn-in market has huge potential to grow significantly and be a major long-term growth driver for Aehr. And very interesting to see the CEO mention the memory market roadmap for their WLBI systems also! "We continue to work with multiple memory suppliers to align our solutions to meet the production needs of these companies' new capacity coming online." Very exciting times for Aehr, and they remain one of my higher conviction names all throughout the AI supercycle. High demand for Aehr solutions + Great execution = Bullish

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Damnang
Damnang@damnang2·
Love it 🙏🏻🙏🏻
Citrini@citrini

Since CPI is either going to be a clearing event or a thanos snap event, I figured it might be a decent time to be helpful. If you’re relatively new to investing, then you’re bound to learn about what happens when your portfolio goes down. Now, this is coming from someone who’s portfolio is up a paltry 20% YTD and hasn’t been gunning it on risk recently. Although also someone who’s been trading and investing their own money for the better part of a decade and has managed to not go bust (except for one, very painful time early on). If you’re constructing a portfolio it’s important to realize it is its own position rather than a collection of positions. A stock is not just a company but the sum of its valuation, shareholder base, its sensitivity to liquidity, crowding, financing/rates and its catalyst calendar. High beta stocks are often five different trades in one ticker. You should always have a working idea of your “tilts”. Does your portfolio go up/down more if tech rallies, if certain countries outperform, if a specific thematic is validated etc etc. In general, you should not have a portfolio of 20 different stocks that all act the same. You might think you won’t, but getting the value of your book cut in half will make you do stupid things. (As an aside, this is also why even though buying the dip is generally a good strategy, progressively buying the dip early into a drawdown can make you mess up at the exact lows.) High beta stocks come in all shapes and colors but in general they are selling the distant future. In good markets, the time out to that future is cheap. In bad markets, you start paying rent. That rent tends to appear as a lower multiple even while estimates stay the same. A lot of times people will tell you the only thing that matters in a drawdown is “is the thesis intact?”. That’s one aspect, the other two are “how have expectations changed?” and “did you size like an idiot?”. Don’t average down just to improve your cost basis, the market doesn’t care about your cost basis. Only add if you can truly underwrite the expected return improving, and that means taking a view that goes beyond a default return to multiples that may be unsustainable. Price can become a fundamental and technical sell offs can manufacture fundamental problems - reflexivity cuts both ways. The best question you can ask yourself in a drawdown is “from here, what is the range of outcomes and what’s the best use of the next dollar?”. If early in a drawdown you note that every time one sector goes up your portfolio goes down, it could be a decent idea to add exposure to that sector. The ultimate goal is not to avoid every drawdown but to make sure no single drawdown takes away your ability to act on real opportunities when they arise. No amount of truisms will help make anyone a better investor, but there is something you can do right now. If this is one of your first few drawdowns, you can observe how you react. Take notes on it. Find out what mistakes you make and then optimize your portfolio, sizing, strategy etc to compensate for those shortcomings. It’s a lot easier to do that than try to fight your own psychology - and anyone who pretends there’s a one size fits all answer to that is lying.

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Darnenng2
Darnenng2@singsemp·
@damnang2 My strategy analysis ! as follows📈📈 👇 👇 👇
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Damnang
Damnang@damnang2·
If you want to better understand VCSEL-based CPO ahead of their announcement, take a look at my article. I’m confident it will provide helpful context. x.com/damnang2/statu…
Lumentum@Lumentum

Next week, @Lumentum’s Oleg Shchekin will present on “VCSEL-Based Wide-Parallel Optical Interconnects for AI Scale-Up Networks” during Session 3 of @LightCounting’s virtual conference on CPO and NPO. 📅 July 15, 2026 ⏰ 5:00 – 8:15 p.m. PT Register: bit.ly/44Di5ed

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Darnenng2
Darnenng2@singsemp·
@damnang2 My strategy analysis ! as follows📈📈 👇 👇 👇
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Damnang
Damnang@damnang2·
SK hynix is surging right after its ADR debut. Are you going to jump on the moving train, or wait for things to cool down before getting in? I’m curious to hear your thoughts. solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3
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Darnenng2
Darnenng2@singsemp·
@damnang2 My strategy analysis ! as follows📈📈 👇 👇 👇
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Darnenng2
Darnenng2@singsemp·
@damnang2 My strategy analysis ! as follows📈📈 👇 👇 👇
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Damnang
Damnang@damnang2·
Memory companies are evolving from their traditional role as sellers of simple commodities into something closer to custom silicon companies. What does this shift actually mean? Are today’s market reports properly reflecting this transition? And if memory companies begin to look more like custom silicon companies, how should their revenue structure and valuation be re-rated? This article is based on several recent field discussions coming out of Silicon Valley. By the end of this piece, I think you will clearly understand why I remain bullish on memory.
Damnang@damnang2

x.com/i/article/2075…

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Darnenng2
Darnenng2@singsemp·
Been at office till 9 again—this late-night desk lamp u0026 cold coffee are keeping me company ,
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Rsahad Heijyav
Rsahad Heijyav@lht_zm·
Got my IELTS overall Band 7.5! Hard work really pays off
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Darnenng2
Darnenng2@singsemp·
Just finished filming the most chaotic fun variety show segment—my cheeks hurt from laughing so hard! Can’t wait for you guys to binge it this weekend
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