“small l” libertarian economist
7.1K posts
“small l” libertarian economist
@small_l_econ
PhD Economics
California, USA Katılım Eylül 2019
195 Takip Edilen84 Takipçiler
Both Democrats are overwhelming favorites to defeat their incumbent Republican opponents in the Georgia Supreme Court elections on Tuesday.
An incumbent justice on the Georgia Supreme Court has not lost reelection since 1922.
Will history be made twice in the same night?
(Odds courtesy of @Kalshi)
English
@political_yt @PpollingNumbers What does a 22% over performance look like - a supermajority in the senate?
English
@small_l_econ @PpollingNumbers You forgot to make a national map with this GOP overperformance
English
Results - Georgia supreme court (49%)
🔴 Warren 62% (+24) 🏆
🔵 Jordan 38%
2024 results - Trump +2 (22% 🔴 Over performence)
English
@VoteHub @ZacharyDonnini Lib ET confidently said these races were a done deal for democrats
English
Rockdale shows a 10.3-point shift from AB/EV to Election Day votes toward Republican Charlie Bethel, a bad sign for Rankin. Her best path may require a much stronger showing in her home county of Fulton, which is possible, but this is not an encouraging number for her.
(shown below are EV and ED)
English
@ZaidJilani Hate is a strong word - somewhat disapprove is more accurate for suburban Atlanta
English
Nah we have a lot of suburbanites who hate Trump and will vote for Ossoff but might not want to vote for ATL's former mayor. That is the problem in a nutshell. x.com/small_l_econ/s…
“small l” libertarian economist@small_l_econ
@ZaidJilani Bottoms will drag Ossoff down ala Andrew Gillum dragging Nelson down in Florida
English
One thing is for certain, the GAGOP now is going to be more right wing than it has in many years. They no longer feel much need to moderate. Ossoff can stomp Collins, but the GOV race is still an open question. #gapol
English
@ZaidJilani Bottoms will drag Ossoff down ala Andrew Gillum dragging Nelson down in Florida
English
@DrewSav SheMiracle is doing a little better though; probably because black Georgia primary voters recognize she is black by her name
English
Seems likely that without party labels a ton of Democratic voters in Georgia simply had no idea which candidates for Supreme Court were Democrats.
English
@HamptonPrezcott Contrast that to “Michigan is the next Ohio, thanks to the depopulation of Detroit.”
English
The “Georgia is next Virginia, bro” discourse is beyond asinine, but the primary reason why the State is now competitive is that the GOP collectively decided to stop trying to compete in Metro Atlanta, which is insane given how incompetent the local governance has gotten there.
Calvinist50@Calvinist50
Atlanta suburbs used to be pretty solidly Republican. Fascinating how quickly they changed. 2004 on left, 2024 on right. They’re still trending left.
English
@ReubenR80027912 Conservatives give too much focus on Georgia - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (states with big cities hemorrhaging inelastic Democrat votes and friendly demographics to the GOP) are both on path to becoming another Ohio and Indiana.
English
Rs have maxed out Trump-y whites in GA while ATL has functioned as a black Mecca for AAs under 30
They’ve slipped dramatically in suburbs but the question: 1) Have they found a floor? 2) Even if Rs can win in prez yrs, are they screwed in midterm yrs w/o a course correction?
Hampton Prescott@HamptonPrezcott
The “Georgia is next Virginia, bro” discourse is beyond asinine, but the primary reason why the State is now competitive is that the GOP collectively decided to stop trying to compete in Metro Atlanta, which is insane given how incompetent the local governance has gotten there.
English
@BlueDogDemUSA @ThePoliticalHQ Kemp doesn’t have to do anything - the justices can resign and by law he gets to appoint their successor
English
@small_l_econ @ThePoliticalHQ Kemp won't nullify a fair and free election. He is one of the few Republicans with integrity.
English
Today is shaping up to be an absolute blowout for Democrats on the final day of early voting in Georgia.
When you target people with partisan and racial gerrymandering, you’re going to pay for it at the ballot box.
English
@DK7620 @daveweigel How many Republicans would agree to nuke the filibuster or pack the court to support Trump’s pet projects. Also, Collins, Murkowski, Thillis, Paul and others have voted against Trump on multiple occasions.
English
@small_l_econ @daveweigel Yes there’s so many heterodox republicans, just look at all of them standing up to Trump and not falling in line on every single issue
English
One basic advantage for Rs in all this is that they really do believe the current version of the Democratic Party is dangerous and should not be allowed to hold power. You don’t need a debate, let them in and they’ll turn us into Cuba
umichvoter@umichvoter
“I’m evaluating. I’m open to discussion,” brand-new Rep. Analilia Mejia (D-Glen Ridge) said. “What I’m not open to is rigging any system for unfair advantage. I think voters having a full voice should take primacy, and that we should win on arguments.” What does this mean?!?!
English
QME
@EricMGarcia Just a cynical ploy by the debt laden DNC to raise funds from naive liberals in California.
English
Kind of amazing to see Obama campaign for a Texas Democrat. A decade ago, a Texas Democrat would not be caught within 100 feet of Barack Obama. But the state is in play
James Talarico@jamestalarico
When I was a student at UT, I registered voters for Obama’s 2008 campaign — a campaign of hope. President Obama just showed up at UT and told young Texans: “Now you have the chance to join a campaign of hope.” Sign up today: jamestalarico.com/join
English
@scotus_wire A victory for fair and race neutral elections
English
🚨 A federal judge has declined to immediately block Tennessee's new Republican-drawn congressional map.
English
@cobb_dem Most of these districts are >70% white - Dems only hold a couple of majority white districts (most are in Fulton)
English
@small_l_econ these are not exurban seats though, with the exception of one they’re all located well inside the ATL suburbs and are all trending left very quickly so by no means inelastic
are the votes there yet? Probably not, but this cycle could see a lot of progress made
English
GEORGIA STATE HOUSE THREAD:
With redistricting drama now making its way into Georgia, I think it’s a good time to discuss the state of the map going into the midterms and whether Dems might actually stand a chance at winning the chamber for the first time in 22 years. 🧵⬇️
English
@ZaidJilani Bottoms is an underwhelming candidate who won’t have Abrams or Warnock level funding - hard to believe she will find more Dem voters than Abrams - she will need to flip a significant number of traditional GOP voters who backed Kemp in 2018 and 2022 to win.
English
Yeah a trifecta is out of Dem reach because of the gerrymanders. But when was the last time every statewide office was blue? x.com/small_l_econ/s…
“small l” libertarian economist@small_l_econ
@ZaidJilani The Georgia senate is absurdly gerrymandered (multiple +75 Dem sinks) - the topping senate seat is like Trump +18 - hard to believe the GOP “will get demolished this year”
English
GAGOP is going to get demolished this year
Excommunicate JD Vance@MrUnionYes
As of this morning in GA, Black voters have the highest turnout rate of Active voters of all racial groups.
English
@ZaidJilani The Georgia senate is absurdly gerrymandered (multiple +75 Dem sinks) - the topping senate seat is like Trump +18 - hard to believe the GOP “will get demolished this year”
English
@joekirley @cobb_dem Voters in the south are incredibly inelastic - politics is incredibly racially polarized - no one would say that black southern voters would shift x% because voters nationally are shifting x% to the GOP, the same is true for southern whites
English
@small_l_econ @cobb_dem but they have an opportunity to get an election away
which is really powerful
both because it makes the incumbents act differently and it changes the redistricting numbers
English