Soarin

40 posts

Soarin

Soarin

@Soarin22

Actuary and Predictor. Soon-to-be just predictor. https://t.co/F1l2e0Oupi

Katılım Nisan 2026
35 Takip Edilen299 Takipçiler
Soarin
Soarin@Soarin22·
@Max_Sorokin_ @mattkalish @Nick_Verd Lol so you want MMs to post $100k+ on an overnight, regular szn MLB/NBA line? Cris and Pinnacle’s limits are what like 2-5k on overnights? Guess you could bet more on a rec book like DK and then you’ll instantly get limited to pennies on that account
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Max
Max@__Max__S__·
I would like to see market makers at least once post decent liquidity(100k) for say MLB/NBA before any book posts odds, but that will never happen because its too much risk. It is what sportsbooks do though. Instead the liquidity will literally go from hundreds to hundreds of thousands 0.5 seconds after a major book posts.
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Matt Kalish
Matt Kalish@mattkalish·
Idk what people are smoking, there’s not a single exchange product experience for normal people that is remotely close to the delivering the caliber of experience that regulated sportsbooks do. They are 2-3 years of development away (before regulatory touches the product at all)
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Matt Kalish
Matt Kalish@mattkalish·
@ManningSla19960 I do understand. Sounds like you think the right setup is to show 93-1 to customers then book them at 38-1? Or just rationalization “it’s stocksssss”
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Matt Kalish
Matt Kalish@mattkalish·
Good news guys! My $27.5k position now slightly up in value 🎉🎉🎉 Should I cash out for a 5% refund of $1698.83 🤨🥴🥴🥴
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Adam Levitan
Adam Levitan@adamlevitan·
Recording a show on Prediction Markets later this week. Guests will be @nigeleccles (FanDuel founder), @BigBuckHunterrr (NoVig VP of Trading), @Sports__Proj (DFS player turned big winner on PMs). If you have any questions for the show, get them in by replying to this. Ty in advance.
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Soarin
Soarin@Soarin22·
@AdamsAnalytics1 but if you can beat SGPs, then why wouldn't you play them via RFQ as well to get better odds and higher limits?
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Adam's Analytics
Adam's Analytics@AdamsAnalytics1·
@Soarin22 Beating high hold RFQs is a holy grail of keeping accounts alive, so these are actually the easiest things to play on rec books without need for PMs. And because they are harder to beat, not a huge risk to FD in general. Probably due lose volume due to worse SGP odds though
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Soarin
Soarin@Soarin22·
Would be very curious to know how their MMing is going. I don’t do RFQs, but I’d imagine it’s quite a different beast than their trading on FD, when on PMs you are facing automated traders that you can’t profile, can’t limit, and actually have to compete with others on hold %
Nick Devor@nickdevor_

NEW: When you make a parlay bet on a prediction market, FanDuel might be your counterparty. Flutter, the parent-company of FanDuel, announced in its Q1 earnings report today that "in April, we began trialing market-making services on a major, third-party prediction market platform.” FanDuel has its own prediction market platform, FanDuel Predicts, which $FLUT CEO Peter Jackson tells me is mainly for onboarding new bettors in states yet to legalize traditional sports betting. “I want to do both,” Jackson says. “I want to make money through market-making and I want to acquire customers.” The prediction market market-making Flutter is doing is mainly in prediction market parlay or "combo" bets, Jackson says. Prediction markets say they differ from sports betting operators because they aren't the house. But now they may be pitting you against the house of Flutter.

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Peanut
Peanut@peanut_bettor·
Risk Takers pods have been very good lately with @LazyBrain64 (bball crusher) and @alter_clay (manual trader aka god's intended way). Between these, playoff basketball pods, and cover 3 summer schools, we are at podcast nirvana RN
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Soarin
Soarin@Soarin22·
@Rishibets Yikes they gotta fix that. Terrible for everyone.
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Soarin
Soarin@Soarin22·
The year is 2026 and we're still sitting players due to foul "trouble"
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SimFantasy
SimFantasy@olafnorway99·
@Soarin22 Just tried to but it says message inbox is closed. Might be some message settings or something
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SimFantasy
SimFantasy@olafnorway99·
@Soarin22 Hey soarin I’m also an actuary venturing into prediction markets. Any tips on getting started? Been betting nba through etr a while but thats about all
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Soarin
Soarin@Soarin22·
A OG Anunoby and Zach Lowe cameo in Your Friends & Neighbors was not on my bingo card lol
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Soarin
Soarin@Soarin22·
No longer a Kalshi donator
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Soarin
Soarin@Soarin22·
Raptors to win the east 70/1 or better is worth a flyer
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Soarin
Soarin@Soarin22·
Wolves love themselves a long 2
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Soarin
Soarin@Soarin22·
FanDuel Predicts dealing -614 / +354 while telling the user they’re getting -525 / +400. Scumbags
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Soarin
Soarin@Soarin22·
Inspired by @Rishibets to post some of my probably-bad-use-of-capital bets, but also free money is alluring sometimes
Soarin tweet mediaSoarin tweet media
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Keşfet

@Max_Sorokin_ @mattkalish @Nick_Verd @ManningSla19960 @adamlevitan @nigeleccles @BigBuckHunterrr @Sports__Proj