#IranWar General Update IMPORTANT 1/ I did not map exact strikes in Lebanon—they are happening en masse south of the Litani River and in Beirut. 2/ I DELETED all the strikes up to March 17th. Maps from now on will include only new strikes. The coalition seems to have 4 goals in Iran now: 1/ Sustained targeting of Iran's leadership. 2/ Limited strikes against Iran's economic potential. 3/ Sustained campaign against security personnel. 4/ Lifting the pressure on Hormuz. Targeting of Iran's leadership: Larijani, de facto head of state, was killed yesterday. Today it was confirmed that Esmail Khatib, head of intelligence, was also killed. Security forces In #Tehran, more than a dozen strikes against Basij checkpoints occurred. Per my count from @Vahid and @IAFsite videos, at least 20 strikes took place over the course of yesterday and today. Karaj was also struck In my opinion, strikes like this cannot degrade Basij facilities in any meaningful way (since most are already gone), but they are meant to decrease the morale of security personnel. The Bushehr Pars gas facility was just hit. It is responsible for processing about 40% of Iran's gas. Most Iranian gas unlike oil is for internal consumption, not export. Last winter (24/25), Iran was already struggling to provide heating for its citizens. All gas export to Iraq has stopped. Strikes against underground IRGC facilities near the coast also happened.Iranian security forces opened fire (warning shots) on Iranians celebrating the Chaharshanbe Suri festival in Tehran. No casualties reported. Iranian response In Bashur e Kurdistan e (KRI)/Iraq, the coalition is targeting IRGC-linked PMF forces across the country: Qaim, Kirkuk, Baghdad. In Kirkuk, A-10s and helicopters were involved. Iran targeted Doha (#Qatar), Dubai (UAE), Israel (north and Tel Aviv), Kurdistan (KRI, Iraq)—specifically Sulaymaniyah, Hewler (Erbil), and the KDPI camp in Koya. Iraqi oil exports also also down 67% In Rojhelat/ east Kurdistan/Iran civilians previously ordered to leave Baneh were allowed to go back per my source on the ground. Saudi Arabia was just hit (Riyadh). Iran also issued warnings to evacuate oil facilities across the kingdom. Rest of the theather There are no ground changes in south Lebanon reported so far, but Israel clearly aims for it, and a large air campaign against Hezbollah is underway. US Marines (2.2–2.5k + 2.5k auxiliary personnel) are one week away from the theater of operations. They should be in place by the 25th. By my assessment, they will take Kharg Island so US leadership can leave this war from a position of strength. Iranians can't offer any meaningful resistance on the island; however, they can escalate the situation in the straits further.
