mr. umbrella

@cryptomanran DATs blew up for several reasons. This might be a cherry on top. The only issue with this analysis is Nasdaq site estimates 55% retail ownership. These things broke down because selling $1 for $2 was a stupid premise with limited capital raising runway.

WE FINALLY KNOW WHY THE MARKET CRASHED ON 10 OCTOBER AND WHY IT JUST CANT BOUNCE! We never really understood why the big crypto crash started on October 10th and why we couldn't even get a single meaningful bounce! Today the answer seem simple! Let me break it down. 1. DAT's like MSTR, BMNR and others have been one of 2 big buyers that powered this cycle. 2. The DAT game is simple, you need to be the biggest so that you get into the big indices and when you do, passive index trackers are forced to buy large amounts of your stock. As they do you get bigger and get added to more indices, and so the cycle perpetuates. 3. On EXACTLY 10th October, MSCI , the world's 2nd biggest Index company published the below. They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as their core business, should be considered as "companies" or "funds". 4. If they are "funds" they are not included in passive indexing. why, because this creates a circular loop. The fund buys assets , gets bigger and then is included in more indices and buys more assets. 5. The expected ruling will be announced on 15 January 2026 and if this does pass, the companies like MSTR will be automatically removed from all indices. 6. If this happens it would mean that all the pension funds, normal funds and all other passive index holders would dump their MSTR automatically. 7. It would also mean that going forward they would never be included and as such , one of the big reasons why they actually exist would disappear. 8 . Since DATs have been powering this cycle and have been most the buying pressure, the smart money saw this immediately after the 10TH of October announcement and positioned accordingly. 9. The 10TH of October wasn't a coincidence after all - It was smart money seeing a big risk to crypto and the current market structure. 10. The market will probably continue to dum until around the end of December and if the announcement is negative, we will get a huge dump in preparation for the removal from the indices. 11. On the other hand , if it is positive , the bull market is back!! I broke this down on a 10 minute video this morning and I will leave a link in the next tweet! If you enjoyed this analysis, please retweet and follow this account!

Your occasional reminder that “”BTC yield” is not a thing.

#shill … $COIN is valued on cash flows it generates across services that are only roughly a third focused on $BTC (in terms of vol and assets); this is also public information - unlike $MSTR which burns cash + generates profit via unrealized gains on $BTC and is valued on HODL.

As much as he wants to push the $MSTR preferred narrative, they represent less than 3% of the current $MSTR EV($120B).

@pernasresearch Short interest on $RELY jumped to 5.1% from 3.9% last read

“Will”

Some of the best/most valuable 'models' I've seen or made over the years are very simple sidebar derivatives - sometimes supported by a full P&L - that highlight inflection points, changing unit economics, incremental margins or improving KPIs.

Gary at $RH asks his CFO "are we the first to report"? Amazing. No Gary, you are always the absolute last. You waited until the very last day possible by SEC rules to report 4Q24. Does anybody actually just accept this stuff verbatim?

@MasonFoard An even greater irony is being convinced that buying traditional dollar-denominated securities representing ownership of those transformative digital assets at 2x their market prices, is better than owning those same digital assets directly at 1x. $MSTR

Loose understanding of both government and finance?

He has managed to get himself and $MSTR under scrutiny several times. Had an accounting snafu that led to a 60% single day decline. Do your own research… oag.dc.gov/release/attorn… sec.gov/enforcement-li…

I like accounts like this because they take a page out of the inversion mental model Munger talks about and do all the work for you in terms of creating the worst scenario possible. Also what about the dogma of decentralization?#shill

Who the hell is Dave and why is he trading at 60x?

@elonmusk could you provide your views on (1) $BTC replacing the dollar and (2) using excess cash flows generated @ $TSLA, SpaceX or X/Xai to engage in a $BTC treasury strategy? (3)You know payments - obviously - do you think the medium of exchange narrative for $BTC is viable?

block and mute this account it's so tiresome.gif.

Wtf are you talking about? The moment you likened a STRD a 10% yield asset to institutional grade your credibility went out the window. $MSTR is not institutional grade, last time it had a credit rating in late 2024 (on the senior secured loan it was rated as junk). Classic #DYOR

Yeah… I don’t think this guy has ever spent time around wealthy people in Mexico. The wealth in places like Polanco, San Pedro Garza García… or just sitting at Landmark in Guadalajara watching the cars roll in… Would SHOCK most Americans.

stories for bankers

Tom Russo explains the pitfalls of global value investing Tom Russo mainly invests mainly in global brands, so his insight is definitely worth a listen too.

David Tepper’s presentation to Undergraduate Business Students