ssteno
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1983年，金庸设家宴款待聂卫平，保姆上了15只大闸蟹，聂卫平狼吞虎咽吃了13只。不料，聂卫平走后，金庸脸色一变，立马开除了保姆。
从最开始待客，到最后被金庸开除，保姆都不知道发生了什么事情，更不知道自己究竟是做错了什么事，金庸非要开除她。
她想了很长时间都没有想出个所以然，在金庸家工作那么长时间，她自认，金庸对她的工作能力是非常认可的，无论是做菜，又或者是做家务，金庸基本上都没向她提过意见。
而且，金庸还经常夸奖她饭做的好吃，家务做的干净。可这次，金庸什么也没说，就把她辞退了，保姆心里实在太纳闷了。
联想到她当天做了家宴款待聂卫平，她还想着，是不是自己做的饭不好吃，怠慢了客人。那时的她根本没有想过，不是她做饭做的不好吃，而是她说错了话。
1983年的一天，金庸约了聂卫平好多次，终于约到了人。为了准备这次的家宴，金庸也下了血本，他给保姆拿了一笔钱，告诉保姆：“我今天要招待一位重要的客人，你拿着这些钱去买一些好的螃蟹回来，个头一定要大，要肥。”
为了好好的接待聂卫平，金庸也是很早就起来了。保姆拿到钱就赶快去了市场，很快，她就买了15只大闸蟹回来了。
买回来时，她还告诉金庸：“今天我去的早，去的时候还没有什么人，这大螃蟹都被我买回来了。”
看到保姆买的螃蟹，金庸连连称赞，心里更觉得把这顿饭请在家里是个正确的做法。不过，到吃饭的时候，保姆说的一句话让他后悔了。
在家宴准备的差不多的时候，聂卫平敲门过来了：“金老师，我来了！”看到聂卫平过来，金庸非常热情的招待了他。
说话期间，保姆也把做好的螃蟹上了饭桌。吃饭时，聂卫平对保姆的饭也是连连好评：“好久都没有吃过家乡菜了，这菜味道做的真不错。”
金庸听了，也是一脸肯定的看向了保姆。随后，聂卫平就开始吃桌上的大闸蟹，越吃越香，很快他就吃了13只。
而就在聂卫平吃螃蟹的时候，保姆说的一句话，让聂卫平停下了手里的动作。当时，金庸没有说什么，可是在聂卫平走之后，他脸色一变，直接开除了保姆。
在走之前，保姆还是忍不住自己的好奇心，问了金庸：“金老师，是因为我今天做的饭不好吃，所以你才辞退了我吗？”
听到这话，金庸笑了一声，他本来不想跟保姆闹得太难堪。但是，既然人都已经要走了，他还是决定跟保姆说明白：“别人好不容易来家里一趟，只不过几只螃蟹，又不让你掏钱，你却说螃蟹寒凉，让人家不要多吃，这不是含沙射影的说别人吃的多？”
听了金庸的解释，保姆心里也非常委屈：“我那不是随口一说，我没有什么坏心思。”她向金庸道歉，希望金庸能够留下她，但金庸心意已决：“我会给你多结一个月的工资，你走吧。”
金庸做到这个份上也是仁至义尽了，那个时候金庸给保姆开的工资也是非常高的。他知道，保姆家里非常穷困，因此平时在生活中对保姆也非常照顾。
这次，他之所以会把聂卫平请到家里，就是觉得保姆做饭好吃，他想让聂卫平尝尝家里的味道。可就这一句话，她把自己精心准备的家宴给毁了。
聂卫平可是围棋大师，平常什么好吃的没吃过，这次能够来到他们家里，也是因为金庸预约了很长时间，这才约到了人。
而且，为了能够赴这次的家宴，聂卫平还专门推掉了自己一次重要的比赛。或许保姆最开始也没有什么恶意，可是在主人家里，客人吃的正大快朵颐时，主人家的保姆说了这句话，这难道不是在变相的赶客人？
虽然聂卫平没有说，可之后，他吃饭明显拘谨了。金庸也是为了避免之后的事情再发生，所以才辞退了保姆。
对于这次请聂卫平的事情，金庸心里是真的不好意思。不过，这个插曲并没有影响两个人的关系，平常没事时两个人也会聚在一起，有时候是讨论文学作品，有时候是讨论围棋。他们像知己，也像是好朋友。
人生的一大乐事，就是能够遇到一个和自己惺惺相惜的人，这个人可能是自己的爱人，也有可能是朋友，幸运的是，两个人遇见了彼此。
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BREAKING: An Iranian ballistic missile guided by Chinese BeiDou satellites, fuelled by Chinese sodium perchlorate, precisely navigated by Chinese gyroscopic sensors, and fabricated on production lines equipped with Chinese SMIC tools just struck the Neot Hovav industrial zone south of Beersheba. Israel’s largest chemical and hazardous waste complex. Nineteen plants. Adama. Teva Pharmaceutical. Israel Chemicals. A warehouse is burning. Route 40 closed. No injuries. No hazmat release. Fire contained.
Four countries built that missile. One country appears at every layer of the supply chain. The same country that processes 85 to 90 percent of the rare earth magnets inside the Arrow interceptor that was fired to stop it.
The missile cost Iran between $200,000 and $500,000. The Arrow 3 interceptor that attempted to stop it cost $2 to $4 million. If THAAD was fired, $13 to $15 million. If a Gulf state Patriot battery engaged a Shahed in the same wave, $4 million to stop a $20,000 drone. The cost ratio runs 5 to 1 at the lowest. 200 to 1 at the highest. The defender pays more to stop the weapon than the attacker pays to build it. Every single time.
BeiDou is the variable that makes this ratio lethal. Before Chinese satellite integration, Iranian ballistic missiles relied on pure inertial navigation with a circular error probable of 500 to 1,000 metres. With BeiDou-3 hybrid guidance, the CEP drops to 50 to 200 metres. The missile that hit Neot Hovav did not land in the desert. It landed in a 19-plant chemical complex. BeiDou did not make the missile more expensive. It made the same cheap missile accurate enough to force the defender to fire the expensive interceptor every time. The cost of the offence stayed flat. The cost of the defence compounded.
The Pentagon burned $5.6 billion in munitions in 48 hours. Israel has fired hundreds of Arrows since February 28, exceeding $1 billion in interception costs. The US requests $200 billion in supplemental funding. Iran’s total offensive expenditure: an estimated $200 million. $200 billion to stop $200 million. A 1,000 to 1 ratio at the strategic level.
China is on both sides of the ledger. Chinese BeiDou makes the Iranian missile accurate enough to force interception. Chinese rare earth magnets make the interceptor that fires to stop it. Chinese SMIC tools build the production lines that fabricate the guidance chips. Chinese sodium perchlorate fuels the propellant. Every missile that forces an interception depletes an Arrow that contains Chinese rare earth magnets that are under export restrictions that China controls. The attacker’s supply chain and the defender’s supply chain route through the same country. The country profits from both the missile and the interceptor. The country that makes the offence possible also makes the defence expensive.
This is not a war between Iran and Israel. This is a cost function. The cost function has one variable on the offence side: China. And one variable on the defence side: also China. The rare earth magnets in the Arrow motor. The BeiDou signal in the Emad guidance. Both made in the same country. Both consumed in the same exchange. One depleting the other. The war is a Chinese supply chain consuming itself at a ratio that bankrupts the defender before it exhausts the attacker.
Neot Hovav is contained. No injuries. No hazmat. And none of that matters. The interceptor was fired. The stockpile shrank. The rare earth magnet was consumed. Tomorrow another BeiDou-guided missile will force another Arrow containing another Chinese magnet to fire at another ratio the defender cannot sustain.
The IDF Chief said “collapse.” The interceptor stockpile says the same in a different currency. Both currencies route through Beijing.
Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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@kklong001 @AsiaFinance @iBusinessAI 目前是网络传闻，未经官方或权威媒体证实。张雪峰助理万霞回应：自己在成都，不太清楚此事。他的账号今天17:55还更新了讲解视频，朋友圈3月22日刚打卡跑7公里（本月72公里）。合伙人称“暂时无可奉告”。建议等可靠消息，别急着信谣。
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突发：张雪峰心脏骤停，在苏州抢救中。张雪峰账号于17:55更新了一条讲解视频。张雪峰助理万霞回应称，自己人在成都，不太清楚此事。张雪峰朋友圈显示，最近一次发布内容时间为3月22日，当日打卡7公里，3月累计跑步72公里。总有一天，张雪峰的生意会清零，不是所有家长都脑残。
中文
JUST IN: Saudi Arabia just proved that oil can bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Nobody has proved that fertiliser can.
That is the sentence that reprices the entire war.
On March 2, an Iranian drone struck debris near Ras Tanura, Saudi Aramco’s flagship refinery at 550,000 barrels per day. Aramco shut it down as a precaution. By March 10 it was restarting. By March 13, full operations resumed. The mechanism: the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, built decades ago for exactly this scenario. Saudi crude that would normally load at Gulf terminals now loads at a Red Sea port that Hormuz cannot touch. Brent sits above $111. Saudi oil flows. The strait is irrelevant to Saudi energy exports.
Now hold that fact against what happened today.
Israeli strikes hit Phase 14 processing facilities at South Pars, the largest gas field on Earth. Fire confirmed by Iran’s oil ministry. Partial production suspension. South Pars produces 70 to 80 percent of Iran’s gas. That gas is the hydrogen feedstock for the Haber-Bosch ammonia synthesis that becomes urea. The factory that makes the molecule is burning. The strait that ships the molecule is closed. And there is no Yanbu pipeline for nitrogen.
Oil has infrastructure redundancy. Pipelines built across Arabian desert decades ago by engineers who understood that the Gulf’s single maritime exit was a vulnerability. Saudi Arabia invested in the bypass. It works. Ras Tanura restarts. Yanbu loads. The world gets its crude.
Fertiliser has no equivalent architecture. Urea loads at Ruwais, Ras Laffan, Bandar Imam. All inside the Gulf. All west of the strait. There is no pipeline that carries ammonia or urea across a peninsula to a Red Sea port. There is no bypass. The molecule must transit 21 miles of mined, uninsured, permissioned water or it does not move at all.
NOLA urea is locked at $683. It has not moved in nineteen days. It did not move when Ras Tanura restarted because urea does not load at Ras Tanura. It did not move when the leadership was decapitated because the Mosaic Doctrine’s provincial commands do not need leaders. It will not move when South Pars is repaired because the strait will still be closed when the gas field comes back online.
The market is pricing Saudi oil resilience as proof of temporary disruption. The Yanbu bypass works. The refinery restarted. Brent stabilises. Consensus says two to six weeks to resolution. That consensus is anchored entirely to the commodity that has an escape route and is ignoring the commodity that does not.
P&I clubs cancelled Gulf war-risk cover on March 5. Over 500 tankers are stranded. Solvency II capital rules require 30 to 60 days of incident-free stability before reinstatement. The Red Sea precedent is 26 months and counting. Even after a ceasefire, the insurance clock structurally exceeds the planting calendar. The Corn Belt nitrogen window closes mid-April. India Kharif runs through May. FAO projects 100 to 200 million additional people at acute hunger risk.
Saudi Arabia built a pipeline. It saved its oil. Russia collected the energy windfall without firing a shot. China learned everything about American weapons systems for free. And the fertiliser that feeds four billion people remains trapped behind a chokepoint that has no bypass, governed by sealed orders that have no author, priced by an insurance market that has no memory shorter than years.
Oil found its Yanbu. Nitrogen has no Yanbu. And the planting season does not wait for one to be built.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
IRAN JUST HIT THE LARGEST OIL EXPORT TERMINAL ON EARTH AND THIS TIME THERE IS NO PROXY TO BLAME A Shahed-136 drone struck Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery on March 2, igniting a fire that was quickly contained according to Reuters and Bloomberg citing industry sources. Saudi Aramco shut down the entire facility as a precautionary measure. No casualties were reported. The Saudi Defence Ministry confirmed it intercepted drones targeting the site, with debris causing the ground fire per The Hindu. Ras Tanura processes 550,000 barrels per day. It is one of the largest oil refining and export complexes on the planet. And Iran just hit it with a $30,000 drone. On September 14, 2019, drones and cruise missiles struck Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq processing facility and Khurais oil field, temporarily halving Saudi output by 5.7 million barrels per day. The Houthis claimed responsibility. The United States, Saudi Arabia, and European intelligence agencies concluded Iran orchestrated the attack. Tehran denied involvement. The proxy shield held. No retaliation followed. Oil spiked 15% on Monday, then unwound within two weeks as production resumed. That playbook is dead. In 2026, Iran is launching strikes against Saudi territory under its own flag as part of Operation True Promise 4. The IRGC is simultaneously hitting nine countries. There is no Houthi intermediary absorbing attribution. There is no plausible deniability. Iran struck Ras Tanura, and every intelligence agency, every oil trader, and every Saudi military commander knows exactly who launched the drone, from which territory, under whose orders. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spent eight years building Vision 2030 around a single premise: that Saudi Arabia could diversify away from oil dependence while maintaining the kingdom’s security through a combination of American protection and regional de-escalation with Iran. MBS authorized backchannel normalization with Tehran through China in 2023. The Saudi-Iran detente was the centerpiece of Gulf stability. That detente just burned on the tarmac at Ras Tanura. Saudi Arabia has not been a co-belligerent in Operation Epic Fury. Riyadh did not participate in strikes on Iran. Saudi airspace may have been used for overflight, and Saudi air defenses are intercepting Iranian ordnance, but the kingdom has deliberately avoided offensive operations. The reward for that restraint is an Iranian drone on the crown jewel of Saudi economic infrastructure. Now stack the arithmetic. The Strait of Hormuz is functionally closed, sealing 15 million barrels per day. Ras Tanura’s 550,000 barrels per day is offline. Kuwait International Airport was struck. Jebel Ali port in the UAE showed smoke on satellite. Brent crude already surged 9% to $79.45 per barrel per Bloomberg before this strike was reported. Ras Tanura was not on the market’s pricing model. The market priced Hormuz disruption. The market priced Gulf airspace closure. The market did not price Iran directly attacking Saudi refining capacity because the market assumed Saudi neutrality provided protection. Saudi neutrality provided a target. Monday morning’s crude open will reprice everything written above. And Riyadh will answer a question MBS has avoided for three years: does Saudi Arabia enter this war, or absorb the next drone? open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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China has not fired a single missile in this war. It has not lost a single soldier. It has not deployed a single warship to the Strait of Hormuz. And it is winning on every axis simultaneously.
Start with energy. Chinese-flagged tankers continue transiting Hormuz under the permissioned chokepoint. While Western commercial shipping has collapsed by 97 percent, China receives roughly 1.3 million barrels per day of Iranian crude paid in yuan through channels the IRGC specifically exempts. The same blockade that is starving the global food system is delivering discounted oil to the world’s largest importer at prices no spot market can match.
Now layer intelligence. The People’s Liberation Army is watching the most detailed live demonstration of American military capability in two decades. Hypersonic interceptor performance. THAAD engagement envelopes. Reaper drone vulnerability profiles. Electronic warfare countermeasures. F-35 sortie rates. B-2 emission signatures that a Chinese firm already claims to have detected. Carrier endurance limits under extended deployment. Every data point the PLA would need a decade of espionage to acquire is being broadcast in real time by a war China did not start, does not fund, and does not need to participate in.
Now layer supply chains. China controls approximately 90 percent of global rare earth processing. The precision-guided munitions being depleted at historic rates, the 5,000-pound bunker busters, the THAAD interceptors, the Patriot rounds, all require rare earth elements in their guidance systems, motors, and electronics. Every missile fired over Iran draws down a stockpile whose replacement depends on Chinese processing. Beijing banned or restricted rare earth exports in 2025. The arsenal being emptied and the supply chain needed to refill it are both gated by Chinese decisions.
Now layer food. China suspended phosphate exports through August 2026. It halted NPK blend shipments. India asked Beijing for emergency urea on March 12. Beijing said no. China is simultaneously the largest buyer of Iranian oil through the permissioned strait and the largest restrictor of the fertiliser inputs the rest of the world needs to plant. It receives energy at discount while denying nutrients to competitors. The food crisis compounds in every country except China.
Now layer finance. Russia’s A7A5 stablecoin, processing an estimated $56 to $93 billion according to Chainalysis, operates on infrastructure that parallels Chinese cross-border payment ambitions. Every SWIFT restriction, every sanctions-evasion channel, every crypto rail that sustains Iran and Russia through this war demonstrates the viability of non-dollar settlement systems that Beijing has been building for a decade.
China pays nothing for this war. It risks nothing. It learns everything about American military capability. It receives discounted energy. It restricts the fertiliser inputs its competitors need. It watches the US deplete precision munitions whose replacement depends on Chinese rare earths. It observes the alliance fractures that weaken the coalition it would face over Taiwan. And it does all of this while officially calling for peace.
The United States spent $16.5 billion and 15,000 precision strikes to prevent ten Iranian nuclear bombs. China spent nothing and gained a live-fire intelligence windfall, discounted energy, fertiliser leverage over half the developing world, and a real-time stress test of every American weapons system it may one day face.
The war has many losers. It has one silent winner. And the winner did not fire a shot.
Deep dive analysis -
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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@MarioNawfal “Analysts say Iran has thousands more ready to go”…
Which analyst? Is it you?
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. intel claims Iran has started dropping naval mines into the Strait of Hormuz because apparently missiles, drones, and regional chaos weren’t enough drama for 2026.
Only a few dozen mines are confirmed so far… but that’s the appetizer.
Analysts say Iran has thousands more ready to go, enough to turn the strait into a long-term maritime death maze.
Clearing it could take months, and that’s if no one’s shooting during the process.
Source: Map Narratives
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇮🇷🇨🇳 One thing flying under the radar in the Iran story is China. Around 50% of China’s fossil fuel imports come from the Persian Gulf. So if the U.S. ever gained real control or influence over Iran, that’s suddenly a lot of leverage over Beijing’s energy supply. And that’s why China keeps buying Iranian oil even with sanctions in place. It’s about making sure no one else ends up holding the switch on half of China’s fuel. Source: Al Jazeera
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