Stefan Norberg
6.9K posts

Stefan Norberg
@stnor
I understand technology better than you. Really.
Katılım Mart 2009
351 Takip Edilen559 Takipçiler

@mark_prati @Konstantine @Scobleizer @dmitri_dolgov Not necessary at once. That’s all unique plates. My points still stands. Also no one in the know really believes in vision only outside of supervised.
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@stnor @Konstantine @Scobleizer @dmitri_dolgov Stay current, they have 26 unsupervised robotaxis giving paid rides.
Austin 20
Dallas 3
Houston 3
Plus over 600 supervised

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Waymo vehicles have a 13x lower rate of serious accidents than human drivers. Six generations of hardware. Thousands of innovations in AI and software. 170M+ fully autonomous miles.
For 20 years @Dmitri_Dolgov has been focused on making driving safer. While dozens of companies have come and gone, Dmitri persisted.
He knows that getting to "good" is easy, getting to "great" is hard and getting to "super human safety" is extreme. Dmitri chooses extreme.
My favorite part about him? He’s extremely humble about all this and remains focused on what's next: scaling.
We're grateful to have hosted Dmitri and his @Waymo team at @sequoia AI Ascent last week. Full video here:
00:00 Introduction
01:25 Origins
02:45 DARPA Challenge
04:18 Google Self Driving
05:44 Startup Grind
07:11 The AV Hype Cycle
09:47 Waymo World Model
12:41 End-to-End
15:28 Gen 6 Hardware and Scaling
19:53 Safety Stories and the Future
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@mark_prati @Konstantine @Scobleizer @dmitri_dolgov Tesla are most likely many years from scaling. They have a handful of test vehicles right now in basically one tiny geo probably remote supervised. We don’t know if their architecture is capable of reaching the safety levels. ADAS is not autonomy.
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I think they will have a hard time competing with Cybercab.
Both capital cost of vehicles and significantly higher operating costs.
Basic stuff like, no or few humans required for:
1. Inductive charging
2. HD mapping
3. Remote operators
4. Closing door
5. Designed for automated cleaning.
Then there is ability for people to own their own small Cybercab fleet and add them to the Robotaxi network.
If Waymo can’t operate at less than 50c a mile it will have a hard time.
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@joecarlsonshow I bought 3000 shares in late 2022 at $90-97. I will hold for a very long time.
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@faizsays They have clearly understood this since 2019. It should be illegal to act like this towards consumers and investors alike.
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@sonicbluestrats @binarybits I don’t think you understand the challenges of RT. waymo isn’t in ”the human as a babysitter” business. they abandoned that track in 2012. @dmitri_dolgov has said that a waymo can driver anywhere, but not at the safety levels that are required for autonomos operations at scale.
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Today, none.
But as proven by the unsupervised RoboTaxis operating in Austin, Dallas and Houston, any HW4 vehicle is capable of running FSDU when it’s released.
FSD 14.3 is more capable than a Waymo (which is geofenced). It drives anywhere in the US in the rain, snow and at night.
And yeah, I have to watch the road. But my hands don’t touch the wheel/feet don’t touch the pedals. And it’s logging millions of miles everyday.
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We are coming up on a year since Tesla launched in Austin and Tesla bros told us that Waymo was doomed because Tesla's technology was scalable in a way that Waymo's is not. Tesla no-safety-driver fleet is ~50 vehicles. Waymo's is ~3,000.
Timothy B. Lee@binarybits
"'Rolling out' is doing some work in that sentence."
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@binarybits @sonicbluestrats I agree. I should have been clearer that i thought @sonicbluestrats was.
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@stnor @sonicbluestrats I'm not confusing anything. All I said was that you can't buy a Waymo, which is clearly true.
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@binarybits @sonicbluestrats Which Tesla vehicle can you buy that is unsupervised? You’re confusing driver assistance and autonomy. Are you claiming the march of nines is irrelevant? Also Tesla only drives up to 40 mph and not in adverse conditions nor at night.
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@sonicbluestrats I agree, Waymo is not currently participating in the customer-owned vehicle market.
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@mischamartijn They have no intention of delivering FSDS to these cars. There will be no upgrades nor approval.
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If you bought FSD on HW3: hw3claim.nl
30 seconds. No cost. No commitment.
3.000 voices still get silence.
Tens of thousands won't.
€6.400 bought a lot of patience. That's gone now.
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@aikisteve @mischamartijn There has been no process to validate anything but HW4. It will be years before HW3 is done and approved, if ever. Regulators will never ever allow a system without a dms camera so legacy S/X = dead. You’re being a useful idiot now, sorry to say.
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@mischamartijn Yes it is. Just requires better tuning/optimizing of firmware
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@Rob66733000 @ElectrekCo @FredLambert Its not going to work at all for hw3 s/x since unece r171 mandates a dms camera.
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@ElectrekCo @FredLambert Yep, I know HW3 owners and I told them I doubt FSD will ever work reliably (unsupervised). Question becomes how good is enough ? I even have doubts HW4 will ever get a L4 rating. Robotaxi will likely be AI5 and AI6 is already planned to produce chips by 2028 (AI5 isnt enough?)
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Tesla FSD Europe launch backlash: HW3 owners launch claim site electrek.co/2026/04/14/tes… by @fredlambert
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@electricfelix 🤣 I'm not talking about trust. I am talking about capability (of cars and kids). Autonomy means without constant supervision. There is a reason why regulators don't use the word autonomy for L2 systems, regardless of ODD.
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@stnor Haha, one is law other is just you not trusting your kids 🤣
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The Cheapest "Autonomous" SUV in Europe:
Paul's Standard RWD Y was registered on Feb 2 2026 for a price of €40K
road tax ~€1K/year
#alwaysberiding
⚡️⚡️⚡️
Congrats Elon&team, while the €25K Model 3 might not exist, we're quite close to a 🇪🇺 miracle
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@electricfelix Your kids aren’t autonomous if they require constant supervision. Neither is FSDS.
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@stnor Well Paul isn’t steering yet his car is driving across his own unmapped land 😅
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@garyblack00 Tesla will increase the TAM further through its significant cost advantage, resulting in lower prices per mile, making rides affordable to people who wouldn’t otherwise be able to afford them
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@garyblack00 Addressable market is not Tesla’s bottleneck. It’s inferior technology.
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@garyblack00 @JamesHoffmann3 Tesla doesn’t have the tech sorted. Waymo have five years on Tesla. At least.
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@M1551LE @brianjimmyjoe @teslaeurope @grok And S/X with hw3 will never be approved due to the lack of a dms camera.
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@brianjimmyjoe @teslaeurope @grok Grok is wrong it will only apply to HW4 cars cause only FSD V14 will be release like in Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, China
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Together with RDW, we have officially completed the final vehicle testing phase for Full Self-Driving (Supervised) and have submitted all documentation required for the UN R-171 approval + Article 39 exemptions. The RDW team is now reviewing the documentation and test results package internally. They have communicated the expected approval for Netherlands date of 4/10, shifting from 3/20 previously and we look forward to successful completion of this cooperation.
Following the Netherlands’ approval, European countries will be able to recognize this approval nationally. We are anticipating a possible EU-wide approval during the summer.
Over the past 18 months, this approval has involved a series of intense documentation, development, testing, research & audits. Including but certainly not limited to:
– 1,600,000+ km of FSD (Supervised) testing on EU roads
– 13,000+ customer sales ride-alongs
– 4,500+ track test scenario executions
– Thousands of pages of written documentation for 400+ compliance requirements
– Dozens of research studies into safety performance/results
We're extremely proud of the work conducted with the RDW team up until this point.
We very much look forward to the approval in April, and sharing FSD (Supervised) with our patient EU customers!
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@OfficialLoganK good stuff but amount spent looks like only the last two days rather than the MTD.
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Stefan Norberg retweetledi

OMG. I thought that Tesla had rolled out 1 million RoboTaxis back in 2020, but it turns out they're still trying to find someone able to begin work on their program.
Monty Python couldn't make this shit up.
😂🤣😂🤣
Tesla Yoda@teslayoda
🚨Breaking! Tesla is hiring a Robotaxi Business Lead to drive execution of target market deployment strategy and market expansion strategies, identifying and pursuing opportunities to launch Robotaxi services in new cities or regions for rapid growth.
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