satanic butthole enthusiast

@jimbutlr @Scholars_Stage there's no such thing as AGI and no reason to assume that it would be any better than humans if it did exist

@stupidestMirror @Scholars_Stage Interesting. Is that something they've said ? I see AI as an accelerated, so an advanced model might be used by the military to develop an agi level cyber attacks system for example

I want the "AGI will be a military super weapon" crowd to give me their honest answer to this question: if America had AGI, how would it help us open up the Straits of Hormuz? What could it do to defeat Iran that we cannot do already?

@atomlib @jimbutlr @Scholars_Stage for example, Einstein, Szilard, & a number of other Manhattan Project scientists publicly advocated for unilateral US nuclear disarmament and international control of nuclear technology as a path towards world peace, which they felt was the only way to avoid nuclear annihilation

@stupidestMirror @jimbutlr @Scholars_Stage >they were pushing for nonproliferation and trying to avoid a Cold War situation before WWII Explain.

@mmjukic they already did maximum military escalation they're pulling back from military options because there's nothing left to blow up

It does not seem like either Trump or Iran came away from these negotiations with a new and sudden desire to blow up the global economy through military escalation. That is good news.

I see this as basically positive. Blockading Iran is a less aggressive and less risky move than invading it or bombing its energy sites. It is de facto a de-escalation that will hardly make the economic situation much worse than it is already, while pressuring Iran for a deal.

@jimbutlr @Scholars_Stage those in the labs are well aware that there's no such thing as an AGI weapon and that there won't be one in their lifetimes

@stupidestMirror @Scholars_Stage Smarter minds than I. Maybe those in the labs have more insight into the operation of an agi military or weapon. My sense is its mostly unpredictable at this point

@zriboua of course they can sustain control over it. you don't need extensive military capabilities to scare off civilian tankers

On the Strait of Hormuz: I said it before and I will say it again: Iran’s move to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz ranks among its most strategically reckless decisions. They cannot sustain control over it. Their military position does not allow for prolonged enforcement against determined opposition. More importantly, it was never a credible bargaining chip. Once escalated, it has to be relinquished without meaningful concessions. The only asset that has ever carried real negotiating weight is the nuclear program. The logic behind the move is also flawed. The expectation was to trigger a global economic shock large enough to force a halt in U.S. operations. That outcome has not materialized. Instead, it has accelerated the opposite dynamic. Regional and global actors are now investing in routes and infrastructure designed to bypass the Strait altogether. In trying to turn Hormuz into leverage, Iran is diminishing its long-term strategic value. Very stupid of IRGC.

@AmbDennisRoss it puts a lot less pressure on them than bombing them did doing it after bombing them makes the pressure a lot weaker, because it demonstrates that the US has realized it can't win militarily

The blockade always made more sense than seizing Kharg Island. It stops Iran’s exports, its revenues, is a counterpoint to their closing the Straits. They may attack Gulf oil facilities but it puts greater pressure on Iran. It also puts great pressure on China to pressure Iran.

@gabrielmen63734 @baseballcrank but who's it going to pop off against? against the regime? or against the Americans bombing them and threatening to invade them?

@baseballcrank Uh don't know about that. The feb protests were economic protests and now their economy is even worse and the IRGC has even less control. If someone manages to get weapons into Tehran it's going to pop off quickly.

Economically & fiscally, the USA can afford to take a lot more economic pain than can Iran. But politically, our system is highly sensitive to such pain; the Iranian system is not.

@baseballcrank it's not a matter of systems Iran is enduring this pain to defend themselves against brutal, destructive attacks against them the US is enduring this pain because Trump wanted to pump up the GOP's November numbers and thought wars were easy wins with no consequences

@WeTheBrandon nah even if those other navies had come, they wouldn't be able to reopen the strait it can't be done by naval action alone that's why Trump is desperate - because he can't escalate any further without putting boots on the ground

The reason Trump’s counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz seems comically absurd is because it is born out of raw desperation. You see, Trump expected Europe and others to send their navies to reopen the Strait, figuring that those regions rely upon trade via the Strait more than we do. What he didn’t figure was how utterly intransigent the Euros and others would be to his pressure campaign. Once he realized that the Euros, Japanese, etc., were simply going to pay the Iranian toll to move their goods through the Strait rather than risk a war, Trump panicked, understanding too late in this affair how dreadfully exposed to the disruptions of Iran’s blockade the US economy was. Now, Trump is scrambling. Desperate to pressure the rest of the world into supporting his bid to reopen the Strait. He still doesn’t get it. Which is why he will keep getting this thing wrong.

@akarlin maximalist demands would be a lot larger than that. for example, withdrawal of US forces from the region, or ending US arms and military support to Israel those demands you've listed seem reasonable considering their advantageous position after the unprovoked US attack!

The problem is that Iran's demands are absurdly maximalist: * Permanent Hormuz tolls * Reparations * Unblock frozen assets * No restrictions on uranium enrichment * Ceasefire includes Lebanon It's what you would only reasonably demand after a crushing military victory!

@jimbutlr @Scholars_Stage and the people working to invent the nuclear bomb foresaw pretty much all of that they were pushing for nonproliferation and trying to avoid a Cold War situation before WWII was even over. the only mistake they made was assuming that the government would listen to them

@stupidestMirror @Scholars_Stage Right, thats my point. These are a big deal but we cant predict the exact operational outcomes Nuclear restructured the world: Mutually assured destruction, proloferation, cold war, space race, etc.

@DooshvariNada @ksadjadpour so what? more leaders will come out to replace them

@ksadjadpour This is the right move for the US. Also, don't count Israel out yet. If they see an opening, they'll strike to eliminate the remaining regime leaders.

David Ignatius: “After talking Sunday with people close to the negotiations, my sense is that the Islamabad impasse won’t necessarily mean a return to war. The blockade is a pressure tactic, to be sure, but not primarily a military one. Trump has no appetite for further armed conflict. He knows that the upsides are limited and the “tail risk,” as financial traders like to say, is large. His aim instead is to put a severely battered Iran into an economic vice to see if its leaders will set a different course in a big, comprehensive deal. The American side expects that despite last weekend’s standoff in Islamabad, contacts will probably continue, through Pakistani intermediaries. Trump’s destination is still the exit ramp.” washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/…

@ptm_fredalan39 @ksadjadpour economic numbers have never ended a war

@ksadjadpour Anyone looking at the horrific economic data from Iran knows this is good strategy Their ability to function as a society (based on numbers I have seen) is tenuous (kindly said)

@FreeMikeWhite @ksadjadpour the entire reason Trump begged so loudly for a ceasefire was because he doesn't want any more military action mostly because it's clear that bombing alone won't destroy the regime, but he doesn't dare to send in ground troops

@ksadjadpour No, I think he wants the IR regime to take an exit ramp out of Iran. I wouldn't be surprised if military actions continue soon.

@bouguereau_stan @Scholars_Stage LLMs won't improve this, by the way. If anything, they'll make it worse, given their massive bias towards agreeing with the user

@bouguereau_stan @Scholars_Stage not when the guy making the actual decisions is the same old dumbass the entire story of this war was top leadership doing dumb shit that all the experts already knew was dumb shit, but the decisionmakers overruled the experts because they didn't like the experts' advice

@jimbutlr @Scholars_Stage yes! that's the entire reason they invested enormous amounts of money into nuclear bombs! because they knew that nuclear bombs would be that big a deal!

@Scholars_Stage Unpredictable. Did they know how nuclear bombs would change warfare pre ww2? It could be that with years of economic and weapons development with agi, there wouldn't be a strait of hormuz situation Control of cyber, financial, telecoms, etc.

@BookishIam @jess_ih_ka it's an israeli-run propaganda Telegram

@jess_ih_ka I couldn’t verify that report as coming from a mainstream source under the name “Yossi Eliezer.” The searches turned up unrelated items and general coverage on Saudi, Iran, and Trump, but nothing confirming those exact claims or identifying a solid primary publication for them.

NEW: An urgent phone call from Saudi Crown Prince MBS changed Trump’s decision at the last minute: President Trump had intended to declare a complete ceasefire and end the fighting against Iran in exchange for the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, a tense phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman dramatically changed the plan. According to White House sources, bin Salman begged Trump not to stop the war: “This is a historic opportunity – we must finish the job and weaken the Iranian regime once and for all.” In exchange for continuing the fighting, Saudi Arabia offered an unprecedented package of economic and strategic incentives. Key points in the offer: • $100 billion transferred directly to finance American war costs • Full and immediate normalization with Israel after the fall of the regime • Direct oil pipeline from Saudi Arabia to the port of Ashdod, turning Israel into a major energy hub • Investment of approximately $1 trillion in the U.S. economy + purchase of $500 billion in American weapons • Establishment of a new regional defense alliance, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other moderate countries under an American umbrella • Joint naval force to control the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb • Funding of strategic U.S. bases in Israel • Joint reconstruction fund for a post-regime “secular and moderate” Iran In the end, Trump announced a temporary ceasefire, not an end to the war as was expected. Senior diplomatic sources describe the move as “a historic turning point” marking the beginning of a new regional order.

@stavridisj the US - and the rest of the world - are worse off, because there's no oil coming through the Strait anymore any oil coming through the Strait helped to bring global prices down, even if it was Iranian oil. cutting off that oil too just makes the price crunch even worse

In recent days the ONLY people benefiting from Gulf transit were the Iranians...who were extracting exorbitant fees from whatever rogue nation was willing to risk a transit. With a blockade...their economy will be choked...and the US and our allies are no worse off than we were after the Iranians started holding the Strait hostage.

@GhalebHabian @glcarlstrom nobody wants to tell Trump he was wrong, and nobody wants to tell him they failed to accomplish what he wanted

@glcarlstrom How can you have a weeks-long war and still end up with the same preconceptions that started the war in the first place.

Vance made it sound as if there is no room to negotiate—but putting down a "final offer" and walking away is itself a negotiating tactic. Still, the outcome in Islamabad was a reminder that it's hard to end a war both sides think they are winning. The risk now is they misread each other. Washington thinks Tehran will cave under pressure, and Tehran may (again) underestimate Trump's willingness to go another round. More American forces are still headed to the region, and Hormuz is still effectively shut. economist.com/middle-east-an…