Don't blame me, you invested in garbage!

Fed: It's important to manage inflation expectations least it become phycologically entrenched. Everyone: "Fed will pivot the moment something breaks or a recession starts, #inflation will come roaring back" Banks fail Fed: 25bp Everyone: repeat "" surely the #Pivot is soon

@Nostre_damus Yeah, because it's the LNG-dollar now!

Petrodollar is ending few understand this

@SamanthaLaDuc Henry Hub can barely stay above $3 in the midst of the largest energy disruption in world history. I think he'll be fine...

With what energy source?

@calvinfroedge Just be glad you're in the USA, where energy and minerals are in abundance!

Gonna be a lot of hungry people out there

I remember downloading this song during my 1st deployment to Iraq. This message should be irrelevant today, and yet it is. Why are we here? Why should we be here? #IranWar‌ #Iran youtube.com/watch?v=zUzd9K…

@Nostre_damus We shall let Israel send the troops if they want to. Otherwise it's well past time to end our involvement in this war- we should have never been involved!

Iran has a population (92MM) larger than the last 4 countries the US went to war with and lost Afghanistan 2001 - 20MM Iraq 2003 - 35MM North Vietnam 1965 - 18MM North Korea 1950 - 10MM

Different face, same script. The channel changes but the show never does.

@TomMoyerUT The more gas renewables save from being burned in Texas, the more gas Texas can export to places where energy isn't dirt cheap!

I think most people know this, but it’s worth saying anyway. Gas is the current long-duration energy storage. The system works because gas is available to fill the gaps - and that’s fine. Renewables compete with gas *operating* cost. They cut fuel use and help meet summer peaks.

@gnoble79 I get some of this sentiment, but EM* is going to massively underperform in any environment /w high energy and commodity prices. The US will outperform though some sectors will suffer, and EU will be a dumpster fire. *Ex a few commodity producers.

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ JUST HANDED YOU THE TRADE OF THE DECADE And most investors are looking in completely the wrong direction. Brent crude closed above $103 on Friday. Up nearly 40% since the strikes began on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down. Insurance companies have canceled war risk coverage. Over 150 ships are stranded. Tanker traffic has collapsed to near zero. The IEA just called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product flows have been choked off. The US is scrambling. The IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such action ever. Trump ordered emergency insurance for tankers. The Navy was told to begin escort operations. But behind closed doors, Navy officials told tanker executives there's currently NO availability for escorts. And no guarantees there will be. Iran holds the upper hand. And the market knows it. But here's why this matters far beyond the oil price: What we're witnessing is the EMification of America in real time. The US launched strikes in the middle of nuclear negotiations. The executive branch has been attacking central bank independence. Budget deficits are running at levels historically associated with emerging market economies. Erratic policymaking. Massive fiscal deficits. Judicial interference with monetary policy. These are EMERGING MARKET characteristics, and yet the US equity market still carries a premium developed market valuation. That premium is evaporating. Emerging markets returned 33% in 2025. The S&P 500 returned 17%. Almost DOUBLE the outperformance. And 2026 is accelerating the trend. Here's what the consensus is missing: EM macro is BETTER than developed market macro right now. Budget deficits as a percent of GDP? Lower in EM. Debt levels? Lower. Inflation? Lower. Forecasted earnings growth? HIGHER. EM earnings are expected to grow 21% to 29% this year versus 13% to 14% for the U.S. Brazilian equities are trading at roughly 9 times CAPE earnings. About HALF where they traded during the last EM rally in 2018. And the positioning is absurd: US institutional investors have essentially not owned China since Trump 1.0. Most portfolio managers working today weren't even in the business the last time EM led, which was 2001 to 2008. Everyone is out of position. Now layer in commodities: The digital eats the physical. Without copper, silicon, aluminum, and power, there IS no AI. Full stop. And fossil fuels and renewables are rallying AT THE SAME TIME. That tells you the world has a massive power demand problem that isn't going away. Oil above $100. Gold above $4,600. Silver above $85. Copper near all-time highs. The commodity super-cycle is confirming itself in real time. The Iran conflict just poured gasoline on it. Now here's the setup: Emerging market equities, China and Latin America in particular. Commodities across the board. Energy, industrial metals, precious metals. And what to avoid? Long-duration developed market sovereign debt. Overweight positions in the Mag 7, priced for a world where everything goes right and nothing disrupts the AI spending fantasy. Leadership batons in global markets shift in multi-year cycles. The US led from 2009 through 2024. 15 years. Now we're in the early innings of a multi-year rotation into emerging markets and commodities. The flows follow the performance. The performance follows the earnings. And the earnings are now better in EM than in the US. At a fraction of the valuation. With better macro fundamentals. And almost nobody owns it. This is the trade.

@BluthCapital @KlendathuCap As a non-fiction reader, I look forward to seeing where the story goes...

@KlendathuCap This is your worst take (among generally good ones). Although you may fall backward into a goldmine because of this release decision. Everybody knows extended angry family infighting across generations and quarrels over spice stuffing allocation is...a Thanksgiving thing.

Dune.Q enjoyooors aren't ready for what a disaster this is going to be.

@RealJimChanos @talesftf @JonBryant421 No worries, it'll all be in the S-3 filing...

@talesftf @JonBryant421 Yes, the numbers are material, even by $TSLA/Musk standards.

Here are my very rough Tesla Terafab estimates: CAPEX (1 fab): $35+ BILLION CAPEX (Terafab scale): $80+ BILLION First silicon: ~2030+ Mass production: 2032+ I’m probably even optimistic with the timeline given that Tesla has no expertise in this sector. #timestamp $TSLA $TSLAQ

@clawrence @theripsnorter If they had a gas pipeline they wouldn't need to worry high gas prices b/c they'd be Henry Hub prices instead of TTF...

@theripsnorter Try to get a 20-year contract for natural gas and tell me what price the ratepayers of MA will pay. This sounds like a smart hedge against future gas price increases, which are completely unpredictable, regardless of how many pipelines we build.

Remember when officials said Offshore Wind (OSW) would be cheaper? Even recently Ed Markey said Vineyard Wind (VW) when completed would deliver electricity to the grid at "a fraction of the cost of current wholesale prices." In 2024, with low gas prices, the wholesale price of electricity was $39.50/MWh. In 2025, with higher gas prices, it was $68.50/MWh. Now with VW fully operational, MA ratepayers will be forced to pay ~$80/MWh for everything the turbines generate because we locked ourselves into a fixed price (with escalation) over 20 years. Unless gas prices rise substantially, OSW was a bad deal for MA ratepayers. And of course, they don't want the lower and stable gas prices that would come with more pipelines — otherwise they would look even more foolish. The only saving grace — VW output will represent only 6-6.5% of MA load and hopefully only add ~$2 to your monthly bill.

@Biohazard3737 Iran imports 1/3rd of their calories, and pretty much all their electronics, machinery, and other essential items to not go back to the stone age. Most of these come from China and India. They have to get the straights open to Chinese and Indian vessels soon...

@relacxvii @JoshYoung Only Japan, SK, and PH. I suspect they'll get whatever they need from re-exports similar to how EU gets Russian oil via India. ~6-7 million b/day shut-in we get 90 $WTI and high LNG prices. Really dream scenario for the US economy!

@subach @JoshYoung India, SEA, rest of Asia (Japan/SK) are all allies of the US/Israel.

This is missing a key phrase and is misleading

@JoshYoung That means it's mostly open. >50% of the oil coming through the straight goes to China, India, and the rest of Asia and SEA. Europe will get theirs via the Saudi pipeline. However, LNG flows are different story. It's a golden scenario of the US!

"and their allies" Unfortunately the Strait of Hormuz is still mostly closed for now x.com/i/status/20329…

@adam_tooze This is the system that identified a girls school in Iran as a target. Some analyst probably looked at it on the screen for 5 seconds before clicking "approve" to "close a kill chain....

"... in this case, actually closing a kill chain" ... CLOSING A KILL CHAIN!

@shehzadhqazi It doesn't matter if they'd be breaking their own blockade. They must open the straight to Chinese and Indian cargoes! 1/3rd of their calories are imported, and almost all of their tech and machinery.

From yesterday and worth reading

@The_Real_Fly Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Bahrain... Oh wait...

BAHRAIN

@anasalhajji @JosephTMetcalf @ErikSTownsend Probably not fully closed, but partially works great for us. With India and China negotiating /w Iran for the passage of ships, that's probably exactly where things are headed.

@JosephTMetcalf @ErikSTownsend That is the million dollar question. He already mentioned how the US benefit from high prices.

⁦@anasalhajji⁩ if the Trump administration has not physically address the insurance debacle for the movement of ships, it begs the question, does the administration want the Straight of Hormuz affectively closed? ⁦@ErikSTownsend⁩ podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mac…

@GrainSurgeon It's only the 100th time people have fallen for this headline in the past two weeks. It literally gets posted 3 times a day.

big if true (actually really though, very big development if true)

@JoshYoung Iran will open the straight to china bound vessels soon!

The key oil supply chokepoint for oil is blocked, and oil prices can't sustain a bid. Odd.

Busy night in the Strait of Hormuz