surfer

took my first big loss today and during reflection realized i want to start using twitter more after lurking around for months, get more into the community. hi, i'm surfer. i discovered prediction markets this past november, and dove off the deep end. i deposited small amounts that roughly added up to 1k and then pretty much lost it all. on feburary 24th i added in another 400, and told myself that i'd either lock in or lose it all and step away from PM's. in march i made ~18k profit, mainly on esports. there'll be a second post thanking people who i've scoured the depths of twitter for to help me learn as a trader, but feel free to dm me/reply if you have any questions or just wanna chat. heres to a good rest of 2026 for everyone in the battlegrounds

your prediction market counterparty is in this comment section

@RepJackKimble shoutout poe's law

Just a friendly warning. We don’t even make $200k per year in Congress despite working nearly 140 days. If we aren’t properly compensated, a lot of us will go to the private sector and you will be left with some real idiots in Congress.

@PredMTrader taker mogged

Very relevant in today’s discourse

@yizzle_ev congratulations! put the math to good use

Grueling 4 years of math studies just to be a full time gambler

@alch3my101 more tricky than i thought when you look at it this way, glad i sold out

Had another CRAZY mentions debate / situation last night. At the time of this post the strike is pending resolution, but here are the details and arguments. Market: What will Drake say in Iceman? Strike: A$AP On the track Drake raps, "Ni**a, K-Y-S-A-S-A-P, that's some sh*t that you could do for me." So does this count?! Price oscillated between NO and YES for hours last night. The arguments around it are weird as this seems to be an edge case in multiple different ways. #1. It's an awfully written strike. Just plain awful! How do you pronounce "A$AP"? Is it "ASAP" or something else? #2. To further point 1, the strike appears to refer to A$AP Rocky. But is referring to him required to hit the strike? The strike isn't "A$AP Rocky" and saying, "A-S-A-P" or "ASAP" sounds the same as "A$AP." #3. Even if the strike was "ASAP" there is a mentions contract rule that says, "The word must appear as a distinct, standalone unit, not buried inside another word." So this isn't stand alone, right? From various sources, the lyrics were written as: "Ni**a, K-Y-S-A-S-A-P, that's some sh*t that you could do for me" So it's not standalone. #4. As of this morning, the lyrics on Genius now show this: "Ni**a, KYS ASAP, that's some sh*t that you could do for me" So it is standalone. So which way will this go? I have nooooooooo idea. My first instinct was definitely NO with my argument being that the strike as written referred to a very specific name, and that name has unique spelling. So since that name was not used, "ASAP" doesn't count. Others I spoke to agreed and pointed out the contract rule that I've pointed out above. Many bet heavy on NO. I chose to stay out of it, as I often do in these edge cases. What do you think? Should this strike resolve as YES or NO? It should be resolving any minute now so I guess we'll find out. Market: kalshi.com/markets/kxdrak…

@XenyPM @Polymarket still chasing this high, good work 100k soon

I've made my first 0.1c bid that has succeeded, netting me almost $7k in @Polymarket ! I was incredibly lucky yet unlucky at the same time, and I'll explain why in the comments below. 🧵1/5

@rafaelnadal2008 insane work

I didn't prep this market at all, but so many people were talking about it that I decided to play it live. Crazy plot twist with the Drake revealing that it was actually 3 separate albums. This meant that the ep 4 live stream we were all watching didn't count for Iceman. A number of strikes in the features and mentions markets flipped from 90c to 30c. Unfortunately I didn't get in on any of that. My main position was Yeat N. Other than that I spread out across a bunch of N positions in the 80s and 90s. Once the album was posted on genius I started bonding some of the strikes at ~95c. In total I deployed around 40k. I definitely need to be better about conserving my energy for these big markets. I've been working myself into the ground on tennis and just didn't have the energy to do proper research beforehand.

forgot to say shoutout @alch3my101 we got into it a little too late (i was in a food coma) but decent night. first duo mission

+500 off drake generational weekend incoming never been more locked this feels like 6th grade pe and im the last kicker in kickball with bases loaded and 2 strikes because the pitcher has a nasty splitter

@rahpredicts @valesportsna free my boy have fun in LA i suppose

@valesportsna when this happened in VCT EMEA Berlin Stage 1 they received significant compensation, especially for long distance traveling fans is there anything past a refund being provided for NA fans? I drove 6 hours to attend the next 4 days and paid for a place to stay 😭

Hello VCT Fans, Due to a facilities issue at Riot Games Arena, matches will be played without a live audience for the time being. Competition will continue as scheduled. Operating without a live audience allows us to maintain a controlled environment for players and staff while we resolve the issue. We’ll bring fans back as soon as we can. We know this is disappointing, and we’re sorry for the change. Tickets will be fully refunded, including service fees. Thanks for your understanding. We look forward to welcoming you back in person soon.

this is like 99% of the reason why i decided to put some effort into x i dont use any other social media regularly, but last year i started following some very smart stock traders that helped me 2x in 2025, gave me my starting capital for prediction markets this year been able to talk to a lot of cool people just off this platform in the past month n always grateful i learn a lot from this platform

@DustinGouker take a +20000 40 leg kalshi "combo" for every reply you read

You always think it will be fun to have a viral tweet until you read the replies

@TakeorMake god i hope not just jokes, i have a small no position on him too after the injury he had tuesday

@surferpredicts Has he?

Winning two golf majors in a row is hard

china maxxing over, xi doesn't like handshakes but didn't want to pre-market anything just live caught a 15 sec no looks like 14-14.5 sec weird market hard to tell anything ahead of time and not nearly enough conviction even after watching previous handshakes to size up only hindsight is taking the 1 second yes's prior trump is a man for the cameras and wouldn't not shake xi's hand

half chinese cannot wait to CHINAMAX tonight esports is a dying breed

@AndreiKlepatch if this is for july 1st still you got crazy good pricing i was buying 35c no june 30th on polymarket last night

Too much of a coward to get more than a small amount at the bottom, we'll see how it goes.

I derive a lot of satisfaction from forecasting "real" subjects (specifically geopolitics). It's so sick to make money by just fundamentally being correct about the state of the world.

@Karoshi247 pp.tools by foster you can include both polymarket and kalshi

@surferpredicts hey surfer youre doing great! do you mind sharing how did you make this pnl calendar?

took my first big loss today and during reflection realized i want to start using twitter more after lurking around for months, get more into the community. hi, i'm surfer. i discovered prediction markets this past november, and dove off the deep end. i deposited small amounts that roughly added up to 1k and then pretty much lost it all. on feburary 24th i added in another 400, and told myself that i'd either lock in or lose it all and step away from PM's. in march i made ~18k profit, mainly on esports. there'll be a second post thanking people who i've scoured the depths of twitter for to help me learn as a trader, but feel free to dm me/reply if you have any questions or just wanna chat. heres to a good rest of 2026 for everyone in the battlegrounds

hopefully valorant next year will be fun to watch again most competitive that the vct circuit has been but franchising is just so boring. death to franchising in esports