@DeepBelowTheSea @xxl23 On the turn in multi-way spots where the flop has checked through, the player in the middle can often steal it because the other players won’t have balanced ranges in this line. People like to bet without patience.
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Jonathan Coffin
533 posts
Jonathan Coffin
@surreal_ex
Agricultural economist, poker player, and poker coach.
Katılım Ağustos 2013
561 Takip Edilen89 Takipçiler
@aceragoff @pokerorg So you are telling me just because I now can have any combo at equal weight, I’ve somehow lost range advantage as the preflop aggressor?
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@pokerorg The Annette15 Challenge doesn’t work as well when your opponents know you are playing blind.
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@aceragoff @thefakesammieg It’s cold in the casino sometimes
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This week I moved from Florida to Minnesota and left the poker industry.
I’ll still be working in the gambling world but it’s tough to leave something that has given me so many amazing friends, memories, and opportunities.
I’m excited for what’s next and terrified for winter
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@thefakesammieg Uh oh. It’s t shirt weather for a lot of us currently.
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Glad you enjoyed reading it. Since you clearly have read it, something I have always wanted to ask you, as you have totally read it.
If capital allocation is the true function of extreme wealth, and economics is fundamentally an allocation problem, then the billionaire class isn't consuming resources — they're performing a quasi-governmental function of directing civilisational priorities. That being the case, on what philosophical or democratic basis do we justify that this function — the single most consequential act in any economy — is assigned not by consent, election, expertise, or merit, but purely by the accident of prior capital accumulation? And if your answer is "market efficiency," you must also explain why the market, which correctly prices a sandwich or a haircut through distributed signals, is equally reliable at pricing a 30-year infrastructure bet, a speculative technology, or a geopolitical gamble — decisions where the feedback loop is so slow, so distorted by the allocator's own power, and so irreversible that the error-correcting mechanism markets depend on simply cannot function. You're not defending the price mechanism. You're defending something closer to hereditary planning authority. So what, exactly, is your actual argument?
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@PokerJermz @GTOWizard Most streets I’ll play a max of two sizes so nothing crazy because I do value a simplified strategy. I’m also never checking this board because I know villains won’t play vs any bet well enough. They aren’t finding enough 43o xr’s so here I’d just range bet small.
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@surreal_ex @GTOWizard Looking at the multi size solution
It checks 25% of the time, so half as much as single size
Seems like multi size solutions are more up your alley.
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Been messing around with single size sims in @GTOwizard
KJ3 rainbow:
used to bet 4 sizes at different frequencies
Now it’s basically:
115% pot
~50% frequency
Feels way easier to execute…
but most players still won’t pull the trigger on an overbet c-bet strategy
Will you?
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@PokerJermz @GTOWizard Agreed. For sure the large bet will get people out of their comfort zone and they will not know the best way to respond. Downside we have checks. That competes with the fact that population chronically under xr’s small cbets even in spots they know. Which helps our whole range.
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@surreal_ex @GTOWizard yea good question...guess it really depends on the opponent.
But in general, I would guess people would make less mistakes, but the mistakes they do make would be bigger
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@PokerJermz @GTOWizard For sure don’t disagree. I guess my argument is taking the form of, we make money when villains make mistakes. Are they really making more mistakes vs overpot compared to a small bet? And how impactful are the types of mistakes to our winrate.
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@surreal_ex @GTOWizard Getting more money into a pot vs a rec is usually a good thing
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@johnson_du71706 @SaraSmartist @johnson_du71706 hey! Shoot me a dm with your discord username and I’m more than happy to see if we’d be a good fit.
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@SaraSmartist I’d be open to chatting with him on discord
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Meeting with my beginner poker student today.
It's really fun working with someone so enthusiastic and new to the game.
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Nobody believes me, but livestreaming used to mostly be about playing StarCraft at a very high level.
Clavicular Updates@Clav0Updates
Fans are RELIEVED after Clavicular LEFT Arizona to avoid getting FRAMEMOGGED again by ASU frat leader Varis 😳👀
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@PokerFlares @Sdavies22 If villains don’t bluff enough, which is true across most levels of poker, mdf will kill your ev. And that’s not even getting into big blind flop defense which already overfolds compared to mdf.
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@Sdavies22 Bluff catch correctly (MDF) and don't value own yourself.
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The most important skill in poker, at nearly every level, is losing less money to your opponents value bets.
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@tombos21 Beyond just getting paid, is it also fair to say that because in icm chips won are worth less than chips lost, we are paying a higher fee to chase a less valuable draw?
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Tournament poker devalues small pocket pairs and suited connectors. Part of this comes down to stacks being shorter, but it's also an effect of ICM.
Drawing hands and small pocket pairs rely on implied odds to breakeven. They lose a small pot often and make up for it by winning a huge pot sometimes. But in ICM-heavy spots it's much harder to get paid off when you hit your draw.
Below I compare two identical sims: chip EV and ICM. You can see the ICM solution shifting away from suited connectors and towards blocker-bluffs.
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@tombos21 My study group talks about this a lot and it’s a great point. It’s also why I stress looking at percent of field left to bust instead of players left to bust to make the money. 1 away with 18 paid and 150 paid are vastly different. Increased by mistakes as mentioned!
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A big chunk of your MTT ROI comes from volatile players on other tables imploding vs each other. Solvers can’t see that. They treat every external stack as static (paying out their ICM value), so they systematically undervalue fold EV.
That’s why I think Ben’s success with over-folding isn’t just about dodging the nit tax. It’s also about collecting the EV leakage from other tables.
x.com/bencb789/statu…
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@IM_David_Alex @tombos21 @hungryhorsepokr Agreed, this was the conclusion I came too as well. I’m curious if there exist edge cases with certain range configurations where this maybe wouldn’t always hold true.
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@surreal_ex @tombos21 @hungryhorsepokr Why would you ever donk if you know villain is always range betting? Makes no sense to me. You usually donk OOP when you don't want IP to xb medium SDV hands. Since villain is range betting IP, donking losses it's merit. The exploit is to check raise agressively.
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There's a reason @hungryhorsepokr advocates for checking to recreational players on the flop. It's well known that fish turn their hands face up when you check to them on dynamic textures.
Example: BvB on QJ9r. If BB has a “bet any pair” tendency, SB can exploit by checking range and letting BB self-identify strength. Sure, “bet any pair” is an extreme nodelock. But it doesn’t take much information asymmetry before the optimal play funnels every hand into this line.
Moral of the story: Sometimes you need to take your foot off the gas and let your opponent tell you what they have.
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@deanmckee757 @tombos21 @hungryhorsepokr For any individual spot yes, but hard to generalize to all oop spots.
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