roscoe

The IRGC's decision tree has collapsed to 2 branches: 1. Accept the US terms (which means some version of: nuclear concessions, free passage through Hormuz, & constraints on proxy operations) & preserve the economic infrastructure that sustains the regime's power base. 2. Reject the terms & face a naval blockade that severs the China trade corridor, grinds the domestic economy to a halt, & creates the internal conditions for regime collapse. The first option might be humiliating, but the second is existential for the current regime. Right now the IRGC is being forced to find a way to repackage capitulation as strategic wisdom, declare victory on state television, & keep their construction companies/money-machines running. Otherwise they risk internal revolts & potential In-fighting within the IRGC coalition (personally think that the likelihood of regime change is being underpriced by the market). With regards to the Hormuz outcome specifically.. It is almost predetermined at this point because the US has already begun establishing physical control of the waterway. The mine-clearing operations & destroyer transits aren't contingent on a deal.. they're happening regardless. Iran's stated position of sovereignty over the Strait & IRGC-coordinated transit with a per-vessel fee was always a negotiating position & not a defensible end state. What the final deal will likely produce is what I've described as *implicit* rather than *explicit* US control. The language will be something like "free & unimpeded passage consistent with international maritime law" with an international monitoring mechanism that includes Iranian participation in some consultative capacity. Iran gets to save face by having a seat at the table. The US gets what it actually wants, which is that no vessel needs Iranian permission to transit (& tacitly corroborating its dominion over the energy lifeline of the world). The hegemon doesn't formally annex the chokepoint, but rather establishes a legal framework of "free passage" that is guaranteed by its own military power. In other words, control without the political liability of ownership. Recall, the British didn't formally own the Suez Canal for most of its operational history, but they guaranteed "free passage", with a fleet parked at both ends.. The US is doing the same thing with Hormuz & the deal that emerges from this process will formalize that arrangement under language both sides can live with. The practical effect is that Hormuz becomes a US-guaranteed (read: controlled/owned) corridor, backstopped by permanent naval presence in the Gulf, with Iran's theoretical sovereignty over its territorial waters preserved in diplomatic language, but voided in operational fact. The IRGC will accept because the alternative (losing their [Chinese] economic lifeline, which they've clearly shown is their Achilles heel.. it's what brought them to the table after all..) threatens the material foundation of their power more than any military strike could. The terms will be dressed up as a mutual agreement. Trump will call it the greatest deal ever made. Iranian state media will frame it as a victory for diplomacy & sovereignty. American destroyers will continue transiting the Strait (of America) whenever they please.. Step 7

@josephdelong Watching YOU grave dance is hilarious

Ethereum rollups can hang together or hang separately

@WarMonitor3 What a strange victory lap lol

@josephdelong I think I speak for everyone when i say we cant wait for your next 5 unfinished projects

@sweetpoleets It’s only under achievers who think trying and failing is some kind of gotcha

To be clear, I’m not going anywhere. I just think many of you are deeply unserious and undisciplined people who are in roles that have outgrown you.

@cryptofishx If only you were in charge

it’s kind of wild that hyperliquid has not come out with its own mobile app yet

@crypto_condom But we are an industry

We are not a serious industry

Men should be working 80 hour weeks of manual labor in grueling conditions. No unions. No OSHA. Just pure testosterone and work ethic. Our bodies and minds belong to the company. Not me though, I make social media content.

@sentdefender crushing it lately boss

I have deleted the post from earlier which claimed to identify a former Midshipman who was responsible for the shooting hoax earlier tonight at the U.S. Naval Academy, he was not involved despite initial claims made by students and staff at the academy.

@sonicthehedgor @inversebrah got himself

Not that this matters at all. But AI is making it much worse for people who don’t know wtf they are talking about to pretend like they do.

Shameful for all the people with forensic and random science degrees claiming shit. 1. No he was not showing decorticate posturing. Lesion was below his midbrain (if anything you’d get opposite posturing) 2. You can’t get ischemia with in seconds 3. You cut the spinal cord and you go flaccid 4. When you are injured, your body first reaction is to tense/protect itself. That’s likely all we are seeing.

@cryptofishx I, for one, thought the team blowing their treasury on memecoins was a brilliant financial decision

This misses the point. A lot of people have long-term bags in AVAX and they feel these initiatives have not accelerated growth as evidenced by the token's underperformance and the speed at which memecoins have gone to zero. And let’s not act like the numbers are small. Over $100M+ went into KET alone. That money could've gone into a lot of things. It’s one of those topics everyone thinks about but no one dares to say out loud.

@DrZer_eth Ser, that sound clip was the purpose of the meeting

lol wut. Retarded thing to say

@RoscoKalis @RevokeCash Thanks for your hard work

I'll start: In 2021, it was basically impossible to know what you were signing in your wallet. With @RevokeCash I contributed to some early solutions to prevent scams, but today there isn't a wallet without integrated simulations and decoding. Kudos to providers like @blockaid_ and @blowfishxyz for providing wallets with the needed infrastructure to integrate that. And to projects like @Kerberus and @PocketUniverseZ for adding robust scam prevention tools on top of that.

@infamousXBT They’re never going to pamp. Stop trying.

@zhusu Who’s money did you use?

Bought 1.5m ether tokens vs bitcoin in jan 2021 over 7 days

@notsofast theyll never pamp. gud effort though

@moonshilla no

BGAN NFT's waking up 🫡

@LiquityProtocol Do you know what arb means?

A $BOLD arb strategy There are 9 different venues where you can get double digit yield on BOLD ‼️ With BOLD slightly under peg, a 500k USDC swap into BOLD results in an instant arb of $2.1k link to venues below 👇

@Cryptoyieldinfo Blast and beara people might disagree although their road to 0 is different

@DavidPSamson All the bots you use to boost podcast ratings didn’t have any feedback?

Would love to hear what the baseball community thinks about this!