Syed Takshed Karim
3.3K posts

Syed Takshed Karim
@takshed
Investing is a hobby. Opinions are all mine and not Financial Advice.
Montreal, Canada Katılım Aralık 2020
572 Takip Edilen474 Takipçiler

You can still call me crazy, but I still believe this, but a higher percentage now imo.
Paper Bag Investor@PaperBagInvest
Call me crazy, but I think there is a greater than 50% chance $LMND becomes a $100B+ company someday.
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@anthonyisonline Nothing changed since two days ago so that lemonade falls from 60 to 52 almost 15%
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@anthonyisonline Weak hands sell with low price and smart money picks up (in this case it’s institutional investors). See the institutional ownership.
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Seems like a good day to add more $LMND (I just did).
Somehow the stock did not squeeze higher when all of SaaS did, but it did go down with the group after the squeeze ended. YTD $LMND is now again down a similar amount as many large SaaS companies. But unlike SaaS companies who are decelerating, $LMND's business continues to accelerate.
And I will reiterate a point that is perhaps less understood (and may be related to the current sell-off). $LMND management has delivered on every target they have publicly set since their 2022 investor day. But unlike some other companies, when $LMND significantly outperforms their targets, their objective is not to maximize short-term earnings beats, but to maximize the long-term value of the business.
This means they are reinvesting some of the outperformance back into their business. Investors should applaud this. If the returns on investment are attractive, the investments will deliver many times the value over time that a slightly bigger earnings beat could have brought today.
This is what is happening this year. $LMND is making targeted, high ROI investments that are improving their IFP growth and marketing efficiency. As a result LTV / CAC is improving even as IFP growth is accelerating, which is a rather magical combination. Even as they are adding more customers, their growth machine is becoming more efficient.
I believe we are seeing the tip of the iceberg of these investments whenever $LMND announces a new state launch for one of their products (there have been many such announcements lately).
It is clear to anyone who takes the time to model the business in detail that things have been improving. I don't know what 2Q26 will bring, but my bet is more of the same - accelerating growth and improving underlying business economics.
Some bears were questioning why $LMND was not raising full year guidance more after their 1Q26 results. As I have just explained, I think that is the result of a rational, purposeful business strategy - maximizing long-term business value subject to the constraint of delivering their guidance of turning Adjusted EBITDA positive in 4Q26.
No one can precisely predict when this current drawdown will end, but at this price I am willing to wait for it.
Good luck to $LMND and fellow shareholders.
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@AAMarkets When the consolidation ends in the current price ranges $LMND definitely hitting >$100
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I like $LMND here for a move to $100+ in the coming months/quarters. Nice setup holding support around prior range highs.
Trading at ~4x 2026 rev growing at >60%. I think these guys are likely to carve out a nice place in the insurance market in coming years. Think the market is missing how accretive their growth spend really is and that LTV/CAC is actually positioned to grow from here via cross-selling.
My model shows LMND becoming GAAP profitable in 2028, driven by the above factors + its extremely lean operating base. Then compounding profitability from there for years to come.

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