Tennys

@roundrobin42 @thebeaglebets @Kalshi @Polymarket @Novig

@thebeaglebets the people yearn for more liquid quarter markets

Men's tennis is absurd at this point. I bet Sinner to win Indian Wells and he's reached the semifinals without dropping a set and I can still get about the same odds that I could get pre tournament.

@egzee25 @goldenpants013 @CLARS24 Just the gender not any names

@goldenpants013 @talkingtour @CLARS24 We didn’t say who is the favorite though right just that someone is trading at like 75%?

Today's episode is out - @Sports__Proj and I interviewed @egzee25 about his quick rise to the top of the prediction market trading space. I love all of our episodes, but this one feels especially helpful for profiting in the modern sports betting ecosystem. Links below ⬇️

@goldenpants013 I forgive you, if @CLARS24 listened to it before I warned him he would not have

@talkingtour @Sports__Proj @egzee25 AH FUCK - sorry I didn't even think about that

@BigBuckHunterrr Update bio with those earnings

March 1, 2023. You can just do things.

@JamesToh1 Good point except it was talked about

The issue not being talked about here is for the ones that got voided many were never repayed the original wager amount as well. The slips and money just disappeared on a platform that is supposed to be peer to peer lol.

@EA2588 @robpizzola Did he really quote tweet an impersonator of himself and give them 13k views

@robpizzola x.com/fezziksports/s… Not sure Rob… this is saying different

PICK YOUR FIGHTER

@Flupnolide @CLARS24 Thought we had it solved

How unlucky the 9 point underdogs don’t take it down we run so bad @CLARS24 @talkingtour

Fezz you don’t understand tail outcomes as this is brutal “math”. Using his example, 1 person selects CHI. 550 PHI, say 249 select BAL and 200 select KC. Say BAL/KC both have a 80% win probability. ( higher win probability then what they actually were ) When CHI wins, on “average” there’s only 450 - .2 * 449 =360.2 entries left, so with the fezz logic you would have only gotten like ~+180 ML on your CHI entry. This is logic that fezz is doing by taking average entries left which is completely incorrect. In this hypothetical there is a 4% chance that both BAL & KC lose. Even if we assume CHI was only 20% to win, you ship the entire contest 0.8% of the time. Effectively a +800 ML even when assuming you win 0% of the time when CHI wins and other BAL/KC entries survive. I understand this example is not the real scenario, but it should illustrate the importance of tail outcomes in survivor and why using averages gets you to wildly incorrect assumptions. An EV calc clearly shows you that the CHI EV was considerably higher than PHI in most/all survivor contests. It also shows that the DAL/CIN EV was close, and considering Future Value it is pretty clear PHI was the worst pick. Pictured is the EV from the Circa Survivor contest taking a win probability mix from the contest deadline and close. Again, PHI was a brutal pick.

@Tennislytics You should focus on things that do correlate to future results

Damir Dzumhur has performed much better this year as a favorite…he’s 2-9 in our database anytime he’s been +money 👀 Tennislytics.com 🎾 Reminder: Past performance DOES NOT correlate to future results…but the data can give us clues to make better decisions 🕵️‍♂️ When capping these matches, we combine our quantitative data with qualitative analysis to form more well rounded decisions…#GamblingX #ATPToronto

@NBAgreenbeans @ShugPicks @BackdoorBeard @LoriaKohl @EV_Mobley @Flupnolide @storm_pig @spanky Who is the most intelligent person that is still on your side/thinks you handled all of this well

@ShugPicks @BackdoorBeard @LoriaKohl @EV_Mobley @Flupnolide @storm_pig @spanky @BackdoorBeard you know when shug picks is on your side, you got an awesome argument dude 🔥🔥🔥

@Flupnolide @danspickz 😬

@danspickz @talkingtour twitter needs a downvote button

🚨 𝑻𝑯𝑬 𝑩𝑰𝑮𝑮𝑬𝑺𝑻 𝑷𝑹𝑶𝑩𝑳𝑬𝑴 𝑶𝑵 𝑮𝑨𝑴𝑩𝑳𝑰𝑵𝑮 𝑻𝑾𝑰𝑻𝑻𝑬𝑹 🚨 By far the biggest plague on gambling Twitter is the wave of nameless, faceless burner accounts pretending to be sharp 👎 There’s 0 reason to not identify yourself. Anyone who doesn’t have their name and face on their account should immediately not be trusted ❌ Stay safe out there boys and don’t trust burner accounts 🧝

@TidbitsTennis X has a rule you can only delete past bet tracking and start over 8 times before they’ll suspend you

What the heck happened here?!?

@JeffNadu @chinamaniac @CirclesOffHQ @Flupnolide @jacob_gramegna @JoeyKnish22 @Underdog Chip and chase were the ones that started the misinfo that there was 1400 hands between bb/vig together because they were dumb and used the # of hands from the entire session. They aren’t and never were unbiased experts

@chinamaniac @CirclesOffHQ @Flupnolide @jacob_gramegna @JoeyKnish22 @Underdog na Chase Davis, Chip... many others in omar space discussed it. Mike to me the texts are very concerning and convey tainted game.

⚠️ IT'S FINALLY HERE ⚠️ @Flupnolide and @JeffNadu go back and forth on the poker scandal alongside @jacob_gramegna and @JoeyKnish22 Learn the origins of the scandal and what's next 👀 Proceed with caution to your normal spot for today's Circle Back, presented by @Underdog

@yElff_ So you had a cheating text and never made it public, does everyone that lost money get refunded?

I hate to admit this but @robpizzola is a complete 𝑺𝑪𝑨𝑴𝑴𝑬𝑹. He begged me in the DMs to leak to him how many push ups I could do so that he could steal money from the community. He also admitting to scamming his own prop in the past. @robpizzola is a complete fraud he doesn’t have the money he says he does don’t let him fool you.

@joeyisaks @ibetpal Almost certainly djokovic/zverev vs sinner at night bcuz that’s the side getting only 1 day off and the more intriguing match

@ibetpal @bgtennisnation ok not terrible il get 2 hours of the match and can hold it against my wife for a while when it becomes a 5th set classic and we left to make a meal

Hypothetically if sinner vs djokovic is one semi and Alcaraz vs musetti is the other who would they put as the night match @bgtennisnation

@TennisProfits Regardless of the result I think you were wrong here but also worth noting pinny got to ~-145 vig free before set 2 began

Yes, at that price and at that moment it was still a bad bet. You can both win bad bets and lose good bets. What matters is what makes money over an infinite amount of outcomes and I stand by that Sinner at -140 after that first set doesn’t make money over time

@Flupnolide @spanky @tyford32 Your attempt on the pod

@spanky @tyford32 Excellent saying

@Flupnolide I’m sure someone already mentioned to you but I believe the @spanky quote you were looking for is “what’s a line without a limit?”

@danspickz These comments are too funny