Tennys

2.1K posts

Tennys

Tennys

@talkingtour

Katılım Temmuz 2019
461 Takip Edilen1.6K Takipçiler
Isaac
Isaac@roundrobin42·
@thebeaglebets the people yearn for more liquid quarter markets
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Adam
Adam@thebeaglebets·
Men's tennis is absurd at this point. I bet Sinner to win Indian Wells and he's reached the semifinals without dropping a set and I can still get about the same odds that I could get pre tournament.
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GoldenPants13
GoldenPants13@goldenpants013·
Today's episode is out - @Sports__Proj and I interviewed @egzee25 about his quick rise to the top of the prediction market trading space. I love all of our episodes, but this one feels especially helpful for profiting in the modern sports betting ecosystem. Links below ⬇️
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Tennys
Tennys@talkingtour·
@JamesToh1 Good point except it was talked about
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Tennys
Tennys@talkingtour·
@EA2588 @robpizzola Did he really quote tweet an impersonator of himself and give them 13k views
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Chris
Chris@Flupnolide·
How unlucky the 9 point underdogs don’t take it down we run so bad @CLARS24 @talkingtour
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CLARS24
CLARS24@CLARS24·
Fezz you don’t understand tail outcomes as this is brutal “math”. Using his example, 1 person selects CHI. 550 PHI, say 249 select BAL and 200 select KC. Say BAL/KC both have a 80% win probability. ( higher win probability then what they actually were ) When CHI wins, on “average” there’s only 450 - .2 * 449 =360.2 entries left, so with the fezz logic you would have only gotten like ~+180 ML on your CHI entry. This is logic that fezz is doing by taking average entries left which is completely incorrect. In this hypothetical there is a 4% chance that both BAL & KC lose. Even if we assume CHI was only 20% to win, you ship the entire contest 0.8% of the time. Effectively a +800 ML even when assuming you win 0% of the time when CHI wins and other BAL/KC entries survive. I understand this example is not the real scenario, but it should illustrate the importance of tail outcomes in survivor and why using averages gets you to wildly incorrect assumptions. An EV calc clearly shows you that the CHI EV was considerably higher than PHI in most/all survivor contests. It also shows that the DAL/CIN EV was close, and considering Future Value it is pretty clear PHI was the worst pick. Pictured is the EV from the Circa Survivor contest taking a win probability mix from the contest deadline and close. Again, PHI was a brutal pick.
CLARS24 tweet media
Steve Fezzik@FezzikSports

If you assume 1000 people 550 take Philly 0 take chicago Select Chicago. On average over 250 or so will survive. So under WILDLY optimistic assumptions, you basically will "earn" +330 ML on your survivor on average...... Feel free to correct my math, ty.

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Tennys
Tennys@talkingtour·
@Tennislytics You should focus on things that do correlate to future results
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Tennislytics
Tennislytics@Tennislytics·
Damir Dzumhur has performed much better this year as a favorite…he’s 2-9 in our database anytime he’s been +money 👀 Tennislytics.com 🎾 Reminder: Past performance DOES NOT correlate to future results…but the data can give us clues to make better decisions 🕵️‍♂️ When capping these matches, we combine our quantitative data with qualitative analysis to form more well rounded decisions…#GamblingX #ATPToronto
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Elf
Elf@yElff_·
🚨 𝑻𝑯𝑬 𝑩𝑰𝑮𝑮𝑬𝑺𝑻 𝑷𝑹𝑶𝑩𝑳𝑬𝑴 𝑶𝑵 𝑮𝑨𝑴𝑩𝑳𝑰𝑵𝑮 𝑻𝑾𝑰𝑻𝑻𝑬𝑹 🚨 By far the biggest plague on gambling Twitter is the wave of nameless, faceless burner accounts pretending to be sharp 👎 There’s 0 reason to not identify yourself. Anyone who doesn’t have their name and face on their account should immediately not be trusted ❌ Stay safe out there boys and don’t trust burner accounts 🧝
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Tennys
Tennys@talkingtour·
@TidbitsTennis X has a rule you can only delete past bet tracking and start over 8 times before they’ll suspend you
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Tidbits Tennis
Tidbits Tennis@TidbitsTennis·
What the heck happened here?!?
Tidbits Tennis tweet media
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Tennys
Tennys@talkingtour·
@yElff_ So you had a cheating text and never made it public, does everyone that lost money get refunded?
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Elf
Elf@yElff_·
I hate to admit this but @robpizzola is a complete 𝑺𝑪𝑨𝑴𝑴𝑬𝑹. He begged me in the DMs to leak to him how many push ups I could do so that he could steal money from the community. He also admitting to scamming his own prop in the past. @robpizzola is a complete fraud he doesn’t have the money he says he does don’t let him fool you.
Elf tweet mediaElf tweet media
Elf@yElff_

.@robpizzola you are an absolute disgrace for a tweet like this lying on my name for no reason 🤡 1)Spanky paid for everything including the dinners. I challenge you to produce a payment from Rare stake house that day since I’m the freeloader. 2)I didn’t even gamble in the casino this is a blatant lie. I don’t enjoy gambling without an edge. 3)The only people I’m taking shots at are the ones who took shots at my friends in a poker game (that I also played in) I now demand a public apology from you @robpizzola for the lies you are spewing. Show some class you run a media company

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Tennys
Tennys@talkingtour·
@joeyisaks @ibetpal Almost certainly djokovic/zverev vs sinner at night bcuz that’s the side getting only 1 day off and the more intriguing match
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joeyisaks..
joeyisaks..@joeyisaks·
@ibetpal @bgtennisnation ok not terrible il get 2 hours of the match and can hold it against my wife for a while when it becomes a 5th set classic and we left to make a meal
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joeyisaks..
joeyisaks..@joeyisaks·
Hypothetically if sinner vs djokovic is one semi and Alcaraz vs musetti is the other who would they put as the night match @bgtennisnation
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Tennys
Tennys@talkingtour·
@TennisProfits Regardless of the result I think you were wrong here but also worth noting pinny got to ~-145 vig free before set 2 began
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Tennis Investment Club
Tennis Investment Club@TennisProfits·
Yes, at that price and at that moment it was still a bad bet. You can both win bad bets and lose good bets. What matters is what makes money over an infinite amount of outcomes and I stand by that Sinner at -140 after that first set doesn’t make money over time
Jake@JayTay3224

@KlausFuglgaard @TennisProfits Still bad?

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T¥ł£r Førd
T¥ł£r Førd@tyford32·
@Flupnolide I’m sure someone already mentioned to you but I believe the @spanky quote you were looking for is “what’s a line without a limit?”
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Tennys
Tennys@talkingtour·
@danspickz These comments are too funny
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