Tascblue

Running bitcoin

@steipete Lobster from the Bass

And people wonder why I don't support crypto. Got so much love from that community. "Lobster from the base" could be a really cool band tho.

The One Number That Explains Bitcoin’s Price The number is −0.65. That’s Bitcoin’s Z-score. If you’re not a statistician, here’s all that means: a Z-score tells you how far price is stretched from what’s normal. • Z = 0 → price is normal • Z > 0 → price is stretched high • Z < 0 → price is stretched low It doesn’t predict hype. It measures tension. Here’s why −0.65 matters. At this point after every prior halving, Bitcoin was above trend: 2012: +1.02 2016: +1.32 2020: +0.48 Today: −0.65 That has never happened before. Not once in 15 years. What the numbers say next I ran the full dataset: 5,681 daily observations. Every crash. Every bubble. Every macro regime. The relationship between Z-score and future price is not weak. Correlation to forward 18-month returns: −0.745 Variance explained by this single variable: ~56% That means how far price is stretched explains more of what happens next than rates, CPI, narratives, or sentiment. From Z ≤ −0.6 (where we are now): • 12-month win rate: 100% • Negative outcomes: 0 • Worst case: +47% • Median outcome: +181% From Z ≥ +1.0: • Win rate: 44% • Worst drawdown: −73% That’s not opinion. That’s asymmetry. So why doesn’t price “feel” bullish? Because Bitcoin is no longer being priced like a trade. It’s being used. Bitcoin now trades 24/7, settles instantly, and can be pledged as collateral. Capital can move through it without anyone smashing the buy button on an exchange. That suppresses price temporarily. It does not weaken demand. The market calls that “no interest.” The math calls it misclassification. Meanwhile, supply math tightened permanently. Issuance was cut in half in 2024. ETFs absorb hundreds of BTC per day off-exchange. Institutions accumulate quietly. Selling exists but it’s being transferred from short-term holders to long-term balance sheets at roughly a 36% discount to network value. That’s not distribution. That’s inventory changing hands. Mean reversion doesn’t need a catalyst. Deviation half-life: ~133 days. That means: • ~50% of the gap closes in ~4 months • ~75% in ~8 months • ~90% in ~12 months No optimism required. No narrative required. Time does the work. This isn’t a trade. It’s a position. The bet isn’t that “Bitcoin moons.” The bet is that math didn’t stop working this cycle. Because when highly stretched systems snap back, they don’t negotiate. They just move. Macro does not determine Bitcoin’s long-term price. Distance from equilibrium does.

When you see Democrats complaining that the healthcare system is collapsing, be sure to forward them this. Thanks Obama.

I NEVER thought I’d see the day where the Secretary of HHS actually told this truth. Share this clip with all of your friends. My gosh.

Grateful Dead [1080p HD Remaster] Live at The Spectrum - March 18, 1995 [Full Show] PREMIERE TONIGHT 930 PM EASTERN youtu.be/cboc6oYFtps #gratefuldead #jerrygarcia

The financial services industry works on the same principle. “Sheer don’t slaughter” is a common bit of advice given to brokers on Wall Street.

What a ride #Bitcoin

@Thecryptomist Peepcoin is the next revolution!!!!

Tell me how long you been in crypto without telling me how long you been in crypto

Having been called a liar by Anthony Fauci for saying that "not one of the 72 vaccines mandated for children has ever been safety tested", RFK Jr. sued Fauci. After a year of stonewalling, Fauci's lawyers admitted that RFK Jr. had been right all along. "There's no downstream liability, there's no front-end safety testing... and there's no marketing and advertising costs, because the federal government is ordering 78 million school kids to take that vaccine every year." "What better product could you have? And so there was a gold rush to add all these new vaccines to the schedule... because if you get onto that schedule, it's a billion dollars a year for your company." "So we got all of these new vaccines, 72 shots, 16 vaccines... And that year, 1989, we saw an explosion in chronic disease in American children... ADHD, sleep disorders, language delays, ASD, autism, Tourette's syndrome, ticks, narcolepsy." "Autism went from one in 10,000 in my generation... to one in every 34 kids today."

What is happening in China? Just days ago, China announced MASSIVE economic stimulus as their economy crashed. Now, retail investors are piling into stocks like pandemic-era stimulus is back. Something is seriously wrong in China and it's too late for stimulus. (a thread)

Very few Americans realize that, if Trump is NOT elected, this will be the last election. Far from being a threat to democracy, he is the only way to save it! Let me explain: if even 1 in 20 illegals become citizens per year, something that the Democrats are expediting as fast as humanly possible, that would be about 2 million new legal voters in 4 years. The voting margin in the swing states is often less than 20 thousand votes. That means if the “Democratic” Party succeeds, there will be no more swing states!! Moreover, the Biden/Harris administration has been flying “asylum seekers”, who are fast-tracked to citizenship, directly into swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona. It is a surefire way to win every election. America then becomes a one-party state and Democracy is over. The only “elections” will be the Democratic Party primaries. This already happened in California many years ago, following the 1986 amnesty. The only thing holding California back from extreme socialism and suffocating government policies is that people can leave California and still remain in America. Once the whole country is controlled by one party, there will be no escape. Everywhere in America will be like the nightmare that is downtown San Francisco.

Kamala Harris kicked off her first interview with yet another word salad. CNN's DANA BASH: "What would you do on Day 1 in the White House?" HARRIS: *rambles without answering the question* BASH: "So what would you do Day 1?"

@elonmuskADO A

If #ChiefsKingdom win the Superbowl tonight I'll give $200 in #Bitcoin to one of my followers who retweets this.

This morning on #SaturdaySessions, a first-time pairing of Grammy winners and bluegrass giants Billy Strings and Chris Thile. For the first time ever as a duo, here's @BillyStrings and @christhile with "I've Been All Around This World."

#bitcoin fixes this

Looks like the #Bitcoin Bear is finally headed for hibernation Good luck to all for the coming Bull This should be a fun one Place your bets!

🟠 It took #bitcoin 152 weeks.. To go from its cycle low in Jan 15 to cycle high in Dec 18 It took 110 weeks to get back to previous cycle highs of $1,180 in Nov 13 from the cycle lows 🟠 It took $BTC 152 weeks.. To go from its cycle low in Dec 18 to cycle high in Nov 21 It took 103 weeks to get back to previous cycle high of $19,600 in Dec 17 from the cycle lows 🟧 152 weeks from #btc current cycle lows.. Gives us a date of October 2025 An avg of 107 weeks to return to previous cycle highs of $69,300 would give us a date of December 2024 🟥 2014 bear cycles took 59 weeks from cycle high to cycle low 🟥 2018 bear cycle took 52 weeks from cycle high to cycle low 🟥 2022 bear cycle took 54 weeks from cycle high to current cycle lows Indicating the current low set of $15,600 on Nov 2022 was likely the low of this bear cycle 🟢 Return to $BTC all time highs? = Dec 2024 🟢 #bitcoin cycle top? = Oct 2025