Larry Goldberg retweetledi
@remountco @TeslaLarry I'm not quite getting your meaning. Flesh this out more, please.
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Larry Goldberg
14.3K posts
Larry Goldberg
@TeslaLarry
Managing Partner, LumaSenti. Entrepreneur, co-inventor/co-author of the book “The Decision Model”.
North Carolina, USA Katılım Mart 2009
704 Takip Edilen53K Takipçiler
I'm the quoted post below, @RandyWKirk1 asked Grok for the comparison between Waymo and Robotaxi economics, and Grok correctly stated that Robotaxi had about a 50% cost advantage. However that only states the obvious, and simplistic statistic, not the killer advantage Tesla has over every other ride hail vendor in the West - Tesla has a huge, and growing, fleet of retail-owned Tesla's that are potentially able to feed vehicles into the Robotaxi Fleet in peak demand periods. This is a critical capability, as ride hail companies make more than 100% of their profits in these peak periods! Absent that ability, Waymo and others that require large suites of sensors, iand/or third party supplied vehicles will not be able to be very profitable, if at all. So Waymo is constrained to have to be moderately successful if it expanded to small flyers in many cities. Tesla promises to dominate the space in pricing power and availability in all markets with the possible exception of China.
Randy Kirk@RandyWKirk1
According to Grok - WAYMO vs CYBERCAB In a mature, price-sensitive market like ride-hailing—where the core product is moving a person from A to B—a sustained ~2× difference in all-in cost per mile is extremely difficult to overcome. Customers and platforms will overwhelmingly flow toward the lower-cost provider once both services are widely available, reliable, and unsupervised. The $0.20–$0.25/mile all-in figure (including deadhead) that you, Elon Musk, and Cathie Wood/ARK converge on for Tesla at scale is the aggressive but coherent end-state of their model: purpose-built low-BOM vehicle, high utilization, vertical energy integration, simplified maintenance, robotic cleaning, and software amortized across enormous volume. Reaching that number still requires the autonomy stack to work broadly and safely, but the cost structure itself is designed around it. For Waymo, even granting significant further progress on cheaper base vehicles (Ojai/Zeekr-class), reduced sensor suites, higher utilization, and operational efficiencies, getting sustainably under ~$0.50/mile all-in (including deadhead, energy, maintenance, cleaning, insurance, residual hardware depreciation, and overhead) has proven hard in independent estimates and modeling. The multi-sensor stack, higher vehicle cost basis, and less complete vertical integration in energy and service create a higher floor. That does not mean Waymo cannot improve dramatically from today’s fully burdened numbers; it means the structural gap remains material. In most competitive businesses, a permanent 100% cost disadvantage is fatal for the higher-cost player once the lower-cost one reaches comparable scale, reliability, and geographic coverage. Temporary offsets can exist—superior perceived safety or comfort in specific cities, regulatory head starts, brand, or denser early networks—but they erode as the lower-cost fleet expands. Ride-hailing is particularly unforgiving because switching costs for riders are low and price elasticity is high. The practical implication is that Waymo’s path to long-term viability in a head-to-head market likely requires either: - closing much more of the cost gap than currently appears feasible, - dominating specific high-value niches where multi-modal sensing provides a durable edge that customers will pay a premium for, or - shifting toward a technology-licensing / partnership model rather than pure fleet ownership at massive scale. Your conclusion tracks with how cost structures usually decide outcomes in commoditizing service businesses. The open variables remain execution risk on the autonomy software for both companies and how quickly Tesla can actually deploy unsupervised Cybercabs at the volumes needed to force the cost comparison into the open.
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Larry Goldberg retweetledi
⚡TESLA Q2: PAIN BEFORE PROFITS
Tesla’s numbers hurt. But Larry Goldberg @TeslaLarry says the bigger story is what that pain may be buying: Robotaxi, FSD, AI, Optimus and the infrastructure to scale them.
The near-term pressure is real:
> Auto margins remain squeezed
> Larry sees Robotaxi build-out costs arriving before revenues scale
> FSD subscriptions are becoming increasingly important
> Tesla is still spending aggressively to extend its technological edge
Larry’s thesis: By this time next year, Tesla could look like a completely different company.
⚡WATCH THE FULL EPISODE HERE👇🏽
youtube.com/watch?v=-7MYNN…
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Interesting takes in advance of the Tesla Earnings call.
Royden D'Souza@roydendsouza
“ANY OPTIMUS DATE ELON GIVES WILL BE WRONG.” Ahead of Tesla’s Q2 call, @teslalarry says investors should stop demanding another timeline and focus on what really matters: > The sales outlook > Robotaxi expansion > Cybercab production > Grok becoming the operating system of the car We also discuss the Tesla–SpaceX merger case and why the speed of IFT-14 may matter more than IFT-13 itself. ⚡Full episode here!👇🏽 youtube.com/watch?v=iAZ2dH…
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A look ahead...
Royden D'Souza@roydendsouza
“ANY OPTIMUS DATE ELON GIVES WILL BE WRONG.” Ahead of Tesla’s Q2 call, @teslalarry says investors should stop demanding another timeline and focus on what really matters: > The sales outlook > Robotaxi expansion > Cybercab production > Grok becoming the operating system of the car We also discuss the Tesla–SpaceX merger case and why the speed of IFT-14 may matter more than IFT-13 itself. ⚡Full episode here!👇🏽 youtube.com/watch?v=iAZ2dH…
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Respect!
Ellie in Space 🚀💫@esherifftv
I wanted to share my birth story. I prepared to have a natural birth and took three months of Bradley Method classes. I had to get induced at 38 weeks for gestational hypertension. And despite 18 hours of labor and an hour and a half of pushing, this big baby had a big ol' head so we ended up in a C section. It was a wild ride! youtu.be/OC7csC0fYUQ
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Bottom line on this hate crime; "The court released James on his own recognizance – over the prosecution’s objection, according to the District Attorney’s Office". It seems attacking a Jew is not a terribly serious offense. It's open season, folks.
Afshine Emrani MD FACC@afshineemrani
When they come for one of us, they come for all of us.A Jewish father walking home from synagogue on Pico Boulevard was followed, ambushed, choked, thrown to the ground, and told “Free Palestine” as he lay there terrified for his life. This is not “just” an attack on Jews. It is an attack on the right of every American to walk freely to worship. It is an attack on safety in our neighborhoods. It is an attack on the values that make this country worth defending — freedom, decency, and the refusal to let hate dictate who belongs. Antisemitism is not a Jewish problem. It is an American problem. It is a human problem. When hatred is allowed to target one group with impunity, it eventually comes for everyone. We will not be silent. We will not be divided. We will not normalize this. To every community, every leader, every citizen of goodwill: Stand up. Speak out. Show up. Protect your neighbors. Reject the poison of hate in all its forms. Demand justice without excuses.Hate has no home here. Not in Los Angeles. Not in America. Not anywhere. We stand together — or we fall divided. The choice is ours.#WhenTheyComeForOne #HateHasNoHome #StandUnited #NeverAgain #ProtectOurCommunities Hate crime charge filed in Pico-Robertson attack beverlypress.com/2026/05/hate-c…
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Cern and I are back! Lucid, and other matters.
Are we a good substitute for your daily dose of Herbert? You can tell us, we'll keep your secret! youtu.be/EIAGqOk-0p4?is…
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Many current Democrats, and more particularly those that have strayed into the fantasy land of the DSP, are in the habit of labeling Elon Musk and many others who believed, and still believe, in the principals of the Democratic Party circa 2000, as "Nazis".
In the immortal words of Inigo Montoya:
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."
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Larry Goldberg retweetledi
20th anniversary of the Roadster 🎉🥳🙌
Jon Erlichman@JonErlichman
On this day in 2006: Tesla Roadster unveiled.
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If this is not sentient, then what is? It's so eerie when it happens!
Mark 🗝️@DRVRLES
@CernBasher & @TeslaLarry, I had my tesla backup 2 times in a row during the night time for a semi. I really enjoy the CernBert shows. Thanks!
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@aaronburnett gives me a shout out here for recommending his research; it was justly deserved then, but far more so now since the even more detailed work that his firm @mach33 have done since that recommendation. Their most recent study on critical issues for days centers in the sky is masterful. If you invest in the new Space, @mach33 is an absolute required follow.
Aaron Burnett@aaronburnett
A lot can happen in a year. Here is a brief timeline of some of my 1 year highlights... 13 months ago: we released the SpaceX open source model with Ark invest. Months of work with @VladSaigau @skorusARK @DMaguireARK and @wintonARK to conclude SpaceX had a decent shot at being worth $2.5T by 2030 (just launch and telco business then). @CathieDWood deserves a ton of credit for recognizing SpaceX needed public company level of coverage before anyone else and for trusting us to help. 11 months ago: our first article to go viral (for us) after getting picked up by TL;DR newsletter - Starship 50x Bandwidth reduction. (I didn't know what TLDR was at the time). 8 months ago: my first X engagement from Elon, on an observation that the Overton Window seemed to opening for Orbital Data Centers. that post also got featured on TBPN. we double down on publishing ODC research publicly. x.com/aaronburnett/s… 7.5 month ago: first rumors on SpaceX going public emerge, catches the entire world off guard. along with valuation bump from 400B to 800B, which the Mach33 model released a month earlier by @VladSaigau called within 5% (we were equally shocked as everyone). 7 months ago: David Sacks and Chamath quote post my observation on 'red lines and blue lines' and later that week bring it up on All-In podcast. x.com/aaronburnett/s… 6 months ago: I share several weeks of ODC analysis publicly begging MSM to do some diligence before publishing dumb articles. Elon calls the analysis 'excellent' for people who don't actually fly sats. 10 days later SpaceX files for their 1M SSO AI sat application with the FCC. @TeslaLarry tells his audience my account is the most important SpaceX follow behind Elon (i gain 10k followers in 24 hours). can't thank you enough for that, Larry! x.com/aaronburnett/s… 2 months ago: we release our spacex gigamodel monte carlo where 96% of all simulations clear the 1.75T IPO price, some as high as 30T. Elon say's these numbers fall far below his goals. x.com/aaronburnett/s… 1 month ago: SpaceX IPOs. SpaceX over that same time: filed for 1M AI sat constellation, merged with xAI, announced Terafab, signed 2B+ per month in AI compute contracs, bought cursor, announced AI1 sat specs, rebuilt Grok from the ground up, Filed for 100,000 V3 Starlinks, broke the Pareto frontier with both Composer and Grok. My personal X analytics over that time: sub 1k followers to 25k, 98.6M impressions, countless opportunities and relationships built with like-minded folks. thank you to everyone who's supported me and Mach33 along the way. So many who've gone out of their way to help and provide encouragement. It's been incredible to see the acceptance of our physics first (first principles) research. @jbarseneau and I are excited to continue building the next generation of truth-seeking research and playing a small role in accelerating human expansion. I truly believe this is just getting started and the next two decades will be the best decades humanity has ever scene.
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Back on the Cernbert show! I sound off about the SpaceX weenies! ...and other matters... youtu.be/MWtoGa9g2EE?is…
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