
The Angry Mantis
21.3K posts

The Angry Mantis
@theangrymantis
Tracking Smart Money Real-time US Market News ⚡ $TSLA $MU $SNDK $POET $IONQ $CRWV $NBIS $VELO $META $GOOG $IREN


$MU Sanjay on Bloomberg: "The company plans to quadruple production at the Manassas facility specifically for DDR4 memory using 1a technology." Hmmm.

$FREY: Took a quick look at Freyr's pivot from battery developer to solar module and cell manufacturer. $FREY purchased a brand new 5GW US solar module plant (Wilmer) from Chinese producer Trina for $621M or 3.1x runrate EBITDA, which will make them the #3 producer in the USA. Trina will own ~20% of FREY pro forma and will provide various support services as they ramp up the plant. $FREY expects to generate $100M EBITDA in 2025 increasing to $200M once it's fully ramped. They've got 1.5GW already contracted out in offtake agreements. $FREY plans to build a new solar cell plant for $800M of capex, which they expect will generate an additional $475M of EBITDA or a total of $675M EBITDA for both the module and cell plants. $FREY pro forma for the transaction will have 200M shares outstanding, $132M of cash and $545M of debt for a total Enterprise Value of $1B at a stock price of $2.95. If you buy the stock today, you're purchasing the Wilmer solar module plant for about 5x EBITDA with an option on the new solar cell plant and some recovery value from the co selling/leasing the battery production facilities in Europe. $FREY believes that cashflow from the module plant along with new equity and project financing will fund the $800M capex needed for the new cell plant. They're going to detail these plans in the near future. Below is the pro forma cap structure and implied valuation multiples. IF you believe they can ramp up the Wilmer to $200M of EBITDA, at 5x-8x that implies $3 to $6 per share value. IF you believe they can build and ramp up the solar cell plant (with $800M of debt funding) resulting in $475M of add'l EBITDA, at 5x-8x multiples that gets you to $11 - $21 per share. This does not include any potential value from disposing the legacy European battery development/mfg facilities. There's a lot of execution risk here and I have no idea if this team can do it, but an interesting pivot and transaction. The CFO recently bought 130k and 550k shares on the open market. Company presentation here: ir.freyrbattery.com/events-and-pre…



$TE: ☀️T1 Energy Consensus Estimates Revenue 2024A: $3M 2025A: $755M 2026E: $932M 2027E: $1,371M 2028: $1,529M EBITDA 2024A: -$76M 2025A: -$69M 2026E: $80M 2027E: $246M 2028E: $369M



At Ivy Mass, Anduril completed the final step in a year-long series of exercises that put the Next-Generation Command and Control (NGC2) capability in the hands of the warfighter. The number of connected soldier devices grew from 13 to 2.5K. The number of Tactical Edge computers in the network grew from 67 to 130+. The network now connects 40 different software applications, 36 live data feeds, and 37 different types of sensors and effectors across nine hardware form factors. New technology is only successful if those who need it can use it effectively. Without constant help from developers. At Ivy Mass, the @USArmy took over. Soldiers were in charge of setting up new equipment, updating software across all 2,500+ devices, and integrating new systems themselves. anduril.com/news/ngc2-at-s…


naver.me/FXnhyvWt 이번 주간레터는 중성자 양자 컴퓨팅 회사 $INFQ 에 대한 레터입니다. 투자 비중은 1-2% 의 미래 벤쳐 투자를 위한 비중으로 안내드리며, 각자의 AI 툴로 중성자 양자 컴퓨팅과 양자 센싱을 공부하길 적극 권유 드립니다. 미래를 준비하는 투자로 생각되오며, 현재 변동하고 자금 조달이 어려운 양자 컴퓨팅 회사를 투자하기엔 매우 안좋은 시기임은 분명합니다. 양자 센싱 시장은 하지만 공부 해볼 가치가 있는 중요한 방산 자원임에는 틀림 없습니다. 양자 컴퓨팅의 세계로 가기전에 아주 큰 교두보로 활용될 기업이라 생각합니다. 거래 기록이 없는 아주 위험도가 높은 주식이므로, 앞으로는 가격에 대한 언급도 없을것이며 무지성 추종을 자제 당부 드립니다.
















