The Form Student

@PUNTERIQ If that was the case the take out would have been lower and no rounding down

@theformstudent It’s not about “everyone winning”. It’s about tipping more winners, means the masses invest again and again. Then they get their % commission. But for them to reinvest they need to back winners. It gave the TAB an incentive to help punters find a winner.

Years ago the TAB wanted you to win. Their business was mostly in the “pool” betting system. Like they currently do in Hong Kong. All bets are placed in the pool, and they take their % cut for “hosting” the pool. The more times a punter won, the more likely they are to re-invest. Creating turnover and more turnover means more commissions. TAB would put in ratings like “Read Ratings” in TAB’s to try help you spot a good chance. Now with more and more online corporate bookmakers their goal is for you to lose confidently. A way in doing this is paying your favourite ex footy star, radio show host or social media influencer to tip you. This is extremely successful because they are no longer just setting the odds and bet types, they are controlling who you follow. They trade off the trust you have with that influencer. They make you feel like your “part of the team”, when in fact they are large organisation trying to win your money, but at the same time having you enjoy the experience. They control the entire process, who you “copy”, what products you bet with and the prices said outcomes are. It’s actually quite genius for them, but horrible news for the mug punter who has no idea what is going on. The Multi Obsession Believe it or not , it wasn’t even racing that started the biggest shift in horse racing betting in modern times. It was the AFL and NRL partnering with bookies in million dollar deals. What the bookies realised win bets and line bets are fine, but most punters don’t get to excited by them. So we saw the evolution of many leg multis in sports betting. Combining multiple events and outcomes into one ticket that looks more like a lottery win than a sports betting ticket. This did a few things. It created the multi as we know it today. And by doing so it normalised small odds $1.30, $1.40, $1.50 for an event to occur. People started believing that a series of favourite outcomes combined to equal big odds is better than finding asingular event outcome. This normalisation has trickled into horse racing, where you will see punters take many leg multis on horse outcomes. What most punters don’t understand is the concept of compounding margins. Each event you “add to bet slip” already a costed in margin for the bookie. Each time you add a leg you are adding a further margin. Suddenly a 10% edge for the bookie can become 50%+. The chances of a punter finding enough EV with a 50% edge against them makes its near on impossible to win long term, unless they hit a huge amount of luck. It doesn’t mean every singular person will lose, but like the lottery winners, there are not many of them. The App Algorithm As previously mentioned bookies are now controlling the algorithm to see who you should “copy”. If someone is winning they can suppress their feed in the apps, if someone is a good loser they can boost them to be front of mind. None of this is chance. This is strategic planning and execution by the bookies. The Butterfly Effect (the perfect storm) These changes have created a butterfly effect. With more punters being influenced by influencers who normally tip favourites, and more copy bets of many leg multis (which usually have favourites as the anchor) we are seeing favoured runners shorten more than ever. You use to rarely see $1.30 odds, now you can see it every week , multiple times around the country. Bookies know the game is all about EV, and the more people taking $1.30 about $1.80-$2 chances, the better it is for them in the long run. But while it is creating a negative EV for mugs, it creates opportunity for those who can be patient, seek value and ride low strike rates. Because if a $2 chance is going around $1.5 or less it means there is value somewhere else in the betting market. Maybe a $10 chance is $18, or a $26 chance pays $71 (like Title Fighter- a best bet we tipped at Flemington). The Great De-Professionalisation: Why the "Dumber" Market is Your Biggest Edge We are currently witnessing the most aggressive shift in the racing landscape in thirty years. While most punters are distracted by the flashing lights of new apps, a fundamental restructuring of the market is happening right under their noses. The game hasn't just changed; it has been completely inverted. But for those paying attention, this is the greatest news possible: The dumber the market becomes, the higher the ceiling for those with a clue. How We Take Advantage of the New Landscape The horses haven't changed, a 10% chance to win is still a 10% chance. What has changed is the price you get. • Contrarian Indicators: When an influencer pumps a horse and the "dumb money" crunches it from $4.00 to $2.50, they aren't changing the horse's ability; they are simply inflating the price of every other runner in the race. • The "Social" Drift: We want more "copy bets." We want more "multi" hype. Every dollar placed on a "social lock" is a dollar that distorts the market in our favour, pushing the "Real Value" runners out to prices they should never be.

@AiPunting @WolfdenApp Exactly, self interest rules

@WolfdenApp Why do you think the punter needs a say? Either way how can the government choose to selectively listen to one punter? Who represents the majority? How do we select the authority on this? There's no punters co-op and everyone who bets has different goals and purposes.

🚨IMPORTANT POST🚨 This week the federal government met with key stakeholders in the wagering industry about proposed reform. Ironically, the meeting opened with a Welcome to Country, yet punters across Australia are not welcome and continue to be shut out of discussions about the future of our industry. Not once during this entire process has the government spoken to a SINGLE PUNTER. NOT ONE. And we have tried ad nauseam to get involved. If you think that’s a disgrace, let @AlboMP and @AnikaWells know.

@BetsniperAUS Can you add a de-vig price column?

📉 New on BetSniper: Dropping Odds See exactly where sharp money is moving — in real time. • 19 leagues, all major sports • 30min to 72h windows • Peak-to-trough price tracking • Implied probability shifts • Full history charts Pro members only.

@AndrewNJHawkins @WoppittB Won’t see the auction house promote this one

Winx’s first foal Quinceanera retires without racing. Kudos to @WoppittB for the transparency.

@BettingIsCool What happened to the prop hunter service?

Overview of my betting products 👇 #ChasingSteamers bettingiscool.com/pinnacle-steam… My flagship service is relentlessly grinding to profits. October has been the best month since service inception. Current profit is €138,417.60 from €1,168,550.00 staked. +11.85% ROI. 23371 bets. #DartsHead2Head bettingiscool.com/darts-match-od… An easy to follow service with a very real possibility to beat advised profits by using asians/exchanges. Current profit is €11,764.37 from €193,489.98 staked. +6.08% ROI. 1272 bets. #DartsOutrights bettingiscool.com/darts-outright… The compounding edge leads to double-digit ROIs, however a very volatile service and only for those with a bigger risk appetite. Current profit is +5961 points from 38261 points staked, +15.58% ROI. 1629 bets. 7 years. #FootballAntepost bettingiscool.com/antepost-selec… Very low maintenance service with all official bets being released prior to season start. Simulation tables are updated throughout the season, so users can check for value and add/hedge more bets during the season. Current profit is +1926 points from 12940 points staked. +15% ROI. 772 bets. 9 years. #ImpliedMarketRatings bettingiscool.com/impliedmarketr… This service has seen a facelift recently and now supports 144 soccer leagues worldwide. No need for a soft book account. Place the bets with ANY book including asians and exchanges. The model returned a +3% ROI across tens of thousands of bets (5 years) against Pinnacle opening prices. Save up to 50% with BUNDLES! 💰 Subscribe to two or more products and receive an additional 10% off for each subscription. bettingiscool.com/bundles-save-u…

@brentzerafa @FlemingtonVRC Helps when favourites are winning

Very promising wagering figures released by @FlemingtonVRC on the Melbourne Cup 🏆 🐎

@trader_travis Pammmpp it

#solana weekly chart on log

@LewieWilloughby No

Never seen this before, $1.01 Bullock in the jockey challenge. At this stage, is riding 6 out of 9 favourites, between $1.50 and $3.30 Surely worth specking someone else at those prices?

@eaglepunt Never again

We've had two meetings in the new season at Port Augusta. I'd be interested in any feedback from punters betting there?

@TheStraightonX Wasn’t Gil suppose to be the saviour?

Tabcorp used to set the tone with early odds. Now? They’re stepping back to protect margins. It’s a move that reshapes how and when Australians bet. Is this a smart shift or a slippery slope for the industry? 📊 thestraight.com.au/bookmakers-at-…

@sothegreatgame @AlboMP More regulation will be the end of industry, already trending that way

@StevoMedia That’s a good thing

Dissent rule has totally evaporated out of footy. Was once a thing …

When alt szn

@RNSWStewards April 1 was two days ago

COT Wyong: R3 #8 Ti Amo Tanto - to be ridden further forward.

@Punters Got absolutely handled

Maybe a touch cute on She's Got Pizzazz there ...?

@trader_travis Fading weekend pump

Please don't tell me we are getting bullish at resistance again.

@RacenetTweets Will retire without winning another race

"It just hasn’t worked out." Melbourne Cup champion Knight’s Choice will now target the Queensland winter carnival after his Melbourne autumn campaign was aborted. racenet.com.au/news/melbourne…

@TheProfitsComAu World pool is a joke.

World Pool is a joke to bet into outside of when there is a strong international as favourite. That is the only time you may get some value with a local.

@111AKing111 @J_Walter23 Happens in betting shops too

@J_Walter23 You don't think it'll just increase foot traffic at the betting shops? Probably help turnover on the pokies they have in there, so could be worse for the battler ffs

This could be a "Game Over" moment in time .....