Bitcoin Theory

BTC/USD price forecast (unlogged) for the next 365 days (~EOY 2026) with 90% confidence bands

Top 0.2625%

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4.27.26

If you call anything with yield dependent on market demand a Ponzi, then you’re also calling gold-linked notes from Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan Chase Ponzi schemes - which is obviously absurd. The difference is simple: Ponzi = deception and no underlying exposure, structured yield products = transparent risk premia priced off real markets.

The main difference between a typical Ponzi scheme and $STRC is that with the former the promoter doesn't tell you it's a Ponzi or that your payments will stop when the pool of new buyers dries up. But the financial dynamics remain the same, despite the warning in the fine print.

@jackmallers Congrats 🙂

Nobody calls gold a Ponzi scheme. Nobody calls real estate a Ponzi scheme. Both require new buyers to maintain value. Yet, some say bitcoin is a Ponzi. Why?

Quantum-Safe Bitcoin Transactions Without Softforks github.com/avihu28/Quantu…

@nayibbukele When companies debase their own demand, you don’t hold melting cash - you buy Bitcoin and step outside the system.

AI layoffs are a textbook collective action problem: Each company cuts workers to compete, but if everyone does it, demand collapses. You optimized costs and killed your own customers… and your company.

Think ₿igger.

@NoahKingJr Bitcoin

Software Engineers what's your plan B if AI replaces you?

For 5000 years, people have agreed: 3000 BC: Money should be scarce. 2000 BC: Money should be scarce. 1000 BC: Money should be scarce. 0: Money should be scarce. 1000: Money should be scarce. 1500: Money should be scarce. 1900: Money should be scarce. 1914-1970: Ok but what if it’s not. 1971: Money is what the gov says it is. 1990: Financialize all the things. 2008: Oops maybe not. 2009: Money should be scarce -> Bitcoin. 2010-2019: Bitcoin makes no sense. 2020: Money printer go brrrr. 2021: Wait maybe bitcoin makes sense. 2025: Money should be scarce. A currency that can be infinitely printed by a government is an anomaly. You don’t have to accept it, opt out with bitcoin.

@jackprandelli Wake up - oil went negative in 2020, stop chasing lagging signals and own asymmetry (Bitcoin), not hindsight indicators.

Every major market crash since 1987 was preceded by one signal. Oil's 12 month rate of change hitting 100%. We're at 91% right now. The historical record: 💥 1987 Crash — Oil ROC >100% 💥 1990 Crash — Oil ROC >100% 💥 Dot Com Bust — Oil ROC >100% 💥 2008 Financial Crisis — Oil ROC >100% 💥 2022 Bear Market — Oil ROC >100% Every Single Time. And today? Hormuz closed. We're 9 % points away from the threshold that has never failed to precede a market crash. The S&P is already down 5.4%. When oil moves this fast economies break. Will this time be different? History says no. Source: Ted @TedPillows, @marketmike

@saylor Bitcoin is converging toward a stable equilibrium where global capital coordination reinforces its role as digital capital, and as long as its rules remain credible and resistant to misguided changes, its growth trajectory becomes increasingly robust.

Bitcoin has won. Global consensus is that $BTC is digital capital. The four-year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital flows. Bank and digital credit will determine Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. The biggest risk is bad ideas driving iatrogenic protocol changes.

@saylor Bitcoin is ideal money not because it is perfect, but because it minimizes the incentive to defect.

Three perfect products: A car that drives you. A robot that serves you. An asset that pays you.

@Fried_rice @Scobleizer Anthropic is now officially more open than OpenAI

@kava220 @grok is it real?

Коли унічтожили флот, ппо і ввс

@shaguncrypto 2.625 Bitcoin

My daughter is 4. I have two choices for her future: A) Gold / S&P 500 for 18 years B) Lock 1 BTC for 18 years What would you choose?

@BTCBreadMan Courage is in far shorter supply than genius

What is the single thing stopping most people from taking the plunge and buying their first 1 BTC today at prices 50% lower than the all time high?

@BTCBreadMan You belong to the 0.1 % if you hodl 2.625 Bitcoin

Get to a whole coin and then what?