Bitcoin Theory

BTC/USD price forecast (unlogged) for the next 365 days (~EOY 2026) with 90% confidence bands

@jackprandelli Wake up - oil went negative in 2020, stop chasing lagging signals and own asymmetry (Bitcoin), not hindsight indicators.

Every major market crash since 1987 was preceded by one signal. Oil's 12 month rate of change hitting 100%. We're at 91% right now. The historical record: 💥 1987 Crash — Oil ROC >100% 💥 1990 Crash — Oil ROC >100% 💥 Dot Com Bust — Oil ROC >100% 💥 2008 Financial Crisis — Oil ROC >100% 💥 2022 Bear Market — Oil ROC >100% Every Single Time. And today? Hormuz closed. We're 9 % points away from the threshold that has never failed to precede a market crash. The S&P is already down 5.4%. When oil moves this fast economies break. Will this time be different? History says no. Source: Ted @TedPillows, @marketmike

@saylor Bitcoin is converging toward a stable equilibrium where global capital coordination reinforces its role as digital capital, and as long as its rules remain credible and resistant to misguided changes, its growth trajectory becomes increasingly robust.

Bitcoin has won. Global consensus is that $BTC is digital capital. The four-year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital flows. Bank and digital credit will determine Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. The biggest risk is bad ideas driving iatrogenic protocol changes.

@saylor Bitcoin is ideal money not because it is perfect, but because it minimizes the incentive to defect.

Three perfect products: A car that drives you. A robot that serves you. An asset that pays you.

@Fried_rice @Scobleizer Anthropic is now officially more open than OpenAI

@kava220 @grok is it real?

Коли унічтожили флот, ппо і ввс

@shaguncrypto 2.625 Bitcoin

My daughter is 4. I have two choices for her future: A) Gold / S&P 500 for 18 years B) Lock 1 BTC for 18 years What would you choose?

@BTCBreadMan Courage is in far shorter supply than genius

What is the single thing stopping most people from taking the plunge and buying their first 1 BTC today at prices 50% lower than the all time high?

@BTCBreadMan You belong to the 0.1 % if you hodl 2.625 Bitcoin

Get to a whole coin and then what?

If the power-law assumption holds, your model appears internally consistent and well-structured. However, with only ~13 years of data, the statistical reliability - especially in the tails - remains limited. @JanWues

That's my quant

@azaztrader01 Top 0.1% ≈ 8 million people. Maximum Bitcoin supply = 21 million. 21M / 8M = 2.625 Bitcoin per person.

@TheoryBitcoin That's a pretty specific number! How did you calculate that threshold?

You belong to the 0.1 % if you hodl 2.625 #bitcoin

You’re clearly pointing to Bitcoin, but not naming it makes the argument more persuasive by letting readers reach the conclusion themselves. If you said it outright, many would dismiss the entire thesis as just "crypto advocacy" instead of engaging with the macro logic. At the same time, avoiding naming it gives you flexibility - and a bit of plausible deniability.

Bitcoin is the ultimate hedge against chaos. $BTC

😭

A Simple Theory of Digital Credit: 1. Acquire a large pool of appreciating capital ($BTC). 2. Issue credit ($STRC) against that capital, overcollateralized by the equity base. 3. Monetize a portion of the appreciation—directly or via derivatives ($MSTR)—to fund the dividend.

@BorisJohnson Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi requires a central operator promising returns and paying early investors with funds from later ones. Bitcoin has no issuer, no promoter, and no guaranteed return—just an open, decentralized monetary network driven by code and market demand.

The global economy is held up by SF lying to NYC about how fast AI is growing and NYC lying to Abu Dhabi about how safe private credit is and Abu Dhabi lying about how safe their oil is

@cmsholdings The beauty of Bitcoin is that it can’t lie to you - it has no PR team, no roadshows in Abu Dhabi, just blocks, hashes, and the quiet brutality of math.

@cmsholdings Ah yes, because nothing says "high-trust civilization" like blacklisting your neighbors for optimizing tax policy instead of simply building a jurisdiction so strong that capital never wants to leave in the first place.

Something we can all be doing better at is ostracizing Dubai and Puerto Rico tax tourists when they try to re integrate into society im even for maybe like a mandatory disclosure they have to do when they introduce themselves